I've been thinking quite a bit about 6 max play lately. Mostly this is because I've been playing it that much. I found Absolute's 6 max games are much softer than it's full ring play, and I can never seem to run out of bonus there. I also found myself helping another 2+2er make his first foray into 6 max play, and every other day or so we seem to get a post here about people feeling lost at 1/2 6 max. While I'm a perpetual student of 6 max, and poker in general, I have managed to learn a few things and compile a pretty good deal of information from the forums here, specifically about taking those first few baby steps.
About a month ago, someone posted a poll in both HUSH and small stakes (sorry, lost the link) asking if people thought learning full ring or short handed play was more difficult. The overwhelming response from both forums was, to the surprise of virtually no one, that people thought learning 6 max play was more difficult. One poster chimed in, though, with a comment that rang very true: every full ring player encounters situations resembling 6 max play every single time they play, but a 6 max player will never see many situations from full ring. A similar thesis was also discussed by Ed Miller in his April 2005 article on preflop play in short handed situations. He argued that the commonly stated idea, "In shorthanded games you pay the blinds more often, so you have to play more hands to compensate," was incorrect. Instead, he stated, "Playing in a shorthanded game is theoretically no different from playing in a full game where some players have folded. Being under the gun in a four-handed game is the same situation as being one off the button in a ten-handed game where everyone has folded to you."
When people talk about short-handed situations, they are frequently talking in the same breath about all the adjustments you need to make: how you need to be more aggressive, how you need to defend your blinds, how you need to find value in marginal hands, how A high has showdown value, how you should never open-limp, how all these maniacs will 3-bet with anything, etc. All these things are true, for the most part, but there are two major undertones here that are incorrect: one, that 6 max play is significantly different from full ring play, and two, that these are things you shouldn't be doing in full ring play.
Those two thoughts, I believe, are the two biggest issues that people have when they start out in 6 max play, myself included. Short-handed play gets filed in their heads as a completely different game, and people walk into it looking to make radical adjustments in their play. Sensible, winning 2+2ers will do things like try to steal against loose blinds with J2o, call down with Q high, defend their big blind from a tight player with 93s, and 3-bet a turn check/raise from a passive player after a scare card drops when holding second pair. Most 2+2ers wouldn't dream of doing these things in a full ring game, and yet it happens all the time when you put a good player at his first 6 max table.
Six max play is still poker. Repeat that. Six max play is still poker - the same game we know and love, and know how to beat. Pot odds still apply. Bottom pair is is not the nuts. Turn check/raises on paired boards from passive players still tend to mean sad things for AA. Sets can still get cracked. Sometimes, yes, the other guy does have the flush. Never forget the things you learned from SSH and from the thousands of hands of full ring you've played up to this point. The same fundamentals still apply. Any experienced 2+2er should be able to sit down at a 6 max table and make NO adjustments from their full ring play and still be successful. All he or she needs to do is play every hand as if it was folded to MP2.
That's the real trick, though, and that's the reason why people talk about all the adjustments you need to make. People are making adjustments to 6 max play because they are lacking in important concepts from full ring play. That is also why most veterans say playing 1/2 6 max is crucial before moving up to 2/4 and beyond. If you're lacking in one of the "adjustments" you need to make, you are an incomplete poker player, even strictly in terms of full ring play.
Therein lies the beauty of 6 max play. It brings to the fore concepts that you can ignore in full ring play and still be a winning player. For example, in full ring play, you check a garbage hand in the BB after the CO open-limps, the button limps, and the SB folds. On the flop, you hit second pair on a ragged flop. The natural inclination of many full ring players is to just check/fold and not give the hand a second thought. You don't have to when playing full ring. You'll get paid off well enough when you make it to the river holding the nut flush and the pot is still five handed to make up for the very slim EV in the previous hand. When you're playing short-handed, however, there is no way you can possibly get paid off as well as full ring when you hit something good. Therefore, you had better start finding value elsewhere, or else those blinds are going to eat you alive.
Many more concepts come out to play like this. Preflop strategy changes because open limping is a no-no, just like it is for later positions in full ring (check out Ollie's hand in the second thread, too - not only his good play, but his last sentence). Reads, real reads, become more important, because you'll find yourself heads-up with the same people more often. Hand reading becomes more important because you have to know when your bottom pair has some value. Unimproved overcard and underpair (and more underpair) play become more important because you'd better be extracting some value here as well. It's a big part of your win rate. When you find yourself playing in the blinds 66% more often, you'd darn well better find a good way to minimize your losses, given that everyone loses money from the blinds. The thing is, these situations come up in full ring as well, but people are too used to taking the easy route and folding. As NPA said in one of the articles I linked above, "...you guys are hesitant to play marginal hands in spots that are profitable but uncomfortable. Yes, you aren't thrilled that you have unimproved ace-king in a big pot, but that's what you got, and you have to make the best play with it. It seems that some of you don't want to make the correct play because it MIGHT (note caps) leave you with a "tough" river decision." Playing 6 max forces you to make the tough decisions and play correctly in the uncomfortable spots that you may have been avoiding because of how much of your winnings comes from the sum of all the marginal situations you encounter. The best part, though, is that the ability to play in these marginal situations in 6 max play will do nothing but improve your full ring play as well. Just remember, though, that there's still a difference between a marginal hand and a truly awful one.
With the ever increasing popularity of 6 max play in these parts comes an increasing number of questions about the proper stats to have for 6 max play.
The problem with stats is that having stats in line with typical values does not necessarily imply good play, nor does having stats out of line with typical values necessarily imply bad play. However, seeing that your stats are out of line can give you a quick diagnosis and a place to start looking for holes. Hopefully the information I've compiled and put in here will be used as a beginning, not an end, for improving play.
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VPIP and PFR: These are easily the stats about which the most questions are asked, and the answer is farly imprecise. Following this starting hand chart will get you to about 23-25/14-16 or so, and that's pretty reasonable. If that feels too loose and too aggressive, you could consider tightening up somewhat until you get more comfortable, but if you're playing any tighter than 22/12, you're probably passing up on too many profitable opportunities. Some of the most experienced posters in HUSH play as aggressively as 30/20. This is pretty much the recommended maximum, and this is not recommended for players who are just getting started in 6 max play, or especially for those still fairly new to hold'em in general. The last thing to keep in mind is that you don't want to be playing 30/12 or 21/20. Your VPIP and PFR should increase (or decrease) cooperatively.
Given the same set of opponents, you should be playing exactly the same preflop as you would if it was folded to MP2 in a full ring game. If you find there are differences between the two, you may want to consider adjusting your play as appropriate so that the two match. While differences in your reads of the players at the two different games may dictate somewhat different plays, it's not anything fundamentally different between the two versions of the same game we know and love.
VPIP from SB: This stat varies from about 25% to about 40%, with 35% being a pretty happy medium. The tighter numbers often come from people playing in 5/10 6 max with a 2/5 blind structure. Naturally, you should play tighter in that case, and tightest of all in a 1/3 structure at 3/6. For 6 max play, you're going to have fewer opportunities where there enough limpers to make completing 72s a good idea (fewer limpers = lower implied odds), but you can complete some traditionally dubious hands for high card strength against one really bad limper.
Folded SB to steal: Typical values for this are around 85%, give or take 5%. When you're defending your SB against a steal, you almost always want to 3bet to take the initiative back, and to hopefully fold the BB rather than offer him 5:1 on the call. The set of hands you'd raise preflop is, understandably, the set from which you'd usually select hands for 3betting in SB defense. Given that typical PFR values will be 10-20%, having your fold SB to steal roughly equal to 100% - your PFR% is pretty reasonable. Again, if you play in a game where the SB is not equal to half of the BB, then this number should decrease somewhat. You have relatively less to defend.
Folded BB to steal: The decision about whether or not to defend your BB depends on a lot of factors, primarily what range of hands the theif is raising (does he even steal, or is this raise legitimate?), your read on the theif's postflop play, and how comfortable you are with defending. Having this be at 70% is not a bad place to start out your 6 max play, but getting it down to 60% or so would probably be better. You can play a lot of hands getting good pot odds, especially since the theif's hand range will be large. If the SB comes along and offers you 5:1, you can really open up. Some veterans have this stat below 50%, but, again, that's not recommended for players new to 6 max play who might be less familiar with defending their blinds. A lot of the difference between your VPIP and your PFR comes from defending your BB - you won't be limping much.
Attempt to steal blinds: Following the above chart will get you to about 30% or so, which, again, is pretty reasonable. As you get more comfortable and get better reads on your opponents, you can increase that somewhat (or decrease, if appropriate). Much above 40%, however, and even the worst players will start to catch on to what your doing.
Aggression factors: Postflop aggression factors for 6 max play will tend to be higher than for full ring play, but not too much higher. They should also generally decrease by street. Flop aggression will tyipcally be between 2.5 and 3.5. Any higher than 3.5 and you're probably overplaying (looking for autobetting after PFR in bad situations is a good place to start if this describes you) and/or playing fit or fold. River will typically be between 1.5 and 2.5. Much higher than that, and you're probably folding too many winners. I've seen some posters with stats that look like 3.5/2.5/1.6, and other similarly successful posters with stats that look more like 2.9/2.7/2.5. It's not entirely clear which style is more profitable due to sample size issues, but both can be quite profitable. I guess you guys can debate the merits of each style in this thread if you have an opinion, or especially some data. I'd be especially curious to hear from people who've played both styles: not only to hear which they prefer, but also what they did to their postflop play that resulted in the transition.
This stat, though, is one to be particularly careful with. Don't increase or decrease your aggression for stats' sake. Look at hands and learn when to choose your spots.
Went to showdown: Marginal hands will tend to have more value when there are fewer players involved. Expect to show down more hands. A value of about 32 is probably about as low as is reasonable, and 40%-ish is about the ceiling. Typical values are 35-38%. As you add hands, this may decrease slightly, but if you're only adding hands that you end up folding before showdown, it's time to rethink about adding those hands. Also, if you play aggressively enough (and/or against tight enough opponents) that many hands don't make it to showdown, this will tend to decrease.
Won $ at showdown: This stat should be pretty much in line with typical full ring stats: 50-60%. Your marginal hands that you end up showing down will have more value, but they're still marginal. If this number is too high, you may be running hot or not showing down enough marginal hands. If it's too low, you may be guilty of calling down with jack high and need to review which hands are marginal, and which are still trash, even at 6 max.
Position Stats tab: Primarily make sure that you're getting looser and more aggressive preflop as you move from UTG to the button. The actual numbers are not particularly important if your main stats are in line, but that general trend should certainly be there.
Misc. Stats tab: Krishan Leong did an interesting study to estimate how hot or cold you are running. He looked at the data from many good players Misc. Stats tab to come up with percentages of how often you should win with each kind of hand, and roughly how often you should get a straight, flush or full house (1 in every 200 hands or so, and this has little to do with the quality of your play). Rather than rehash his entire post here, take a look at it yourselves. Make sure that when you're looking at your stats here, you have the "Show Only Hands That Were Not Folded" box checked. Looking at this information can be reassuring that you're not all that bad at poker, as well as keeping you grounded if you're running unsustainably hot. Playing at the microlimits (his data is from 5/10+), you may be able to sustain somewhat higher W$@SD percentages with your various hands, since you'll get to showdown more often with people who are more willing to show down losing hands, but they probably won't be all that much higher in the long term.
Win rate and standard deviation: Well, I guess I'll put something in here about win rate. It's simultaneously the most important and the least important stat. Be happy with anything above 0, naturally, but I'll include how to calculate with what confidence you know you are a winning player. This applies to all poker, not just 6 max, and it has been covered elsewhere, but I'm including it here for completeness. First, get your standard deviation per 100 hands from the Session Notes tab ---> More Detail. Divide that value by sqrt(N/100), the square root of the number of hands you've played divided by 100. That gives you the uncertainty (standard error) of your win rate, i.e., the accuracy to which you know your win rate after having played this many hands. As you can tell, it'll take quite a while to converge to within even as much as 0.1. Anyway, divide your current win rate by your uncertainty. This result, which I'll call Z, can be taken to a normal distribution table, like this one. Enter your Z into the "Below" box, and that's the probability you're actually a winning player. For the lazy ones among us, here are the cliff notes: Z = 1, there's an 84% chance you're a winning player, Z = 2, 98%, Z = 3, 99.999%, and Z = -1, 16%. As you can see from those numbers and a little figuring on your own with your standard deviation, it doesn't take all that many hands to know for near sure that you're a winning player. It should be equally apparent, however, that it's relatively likely for a winning 2+2er to have a negative Z over a reasonable stretch of hands.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
PT stats
It is very important to understand that stats are sometimes cause and often effect.. effect of the cards that are dealt, effect of your table selection, and effect of your reads and opponents actions. Stats can help identify major leaks, but more often than not, if you are near the "expected" range, you will find more value in posting hands rather than wading through your stats with a fine toothed comb.
Playing many hands is very important before you begin to analyze any of the following stats. Some stats begin to converge fairly quickly (VPIP may be somewhat representative after 1000 hands) while other stats take a very long time to be meaningful (50K - 100K minimum to begin to look at your winrate). Often your style has changed by the time a stat converges to a meaningful number. If you feel as though you must post a stat post, it is strongly recommended that you have at least a 10K hand sample size. Until you reach 10K hands, your stats will often vary too much to put much weight on them. Use the following guide to track your progress and stat fluctuations relative to the typical ranges of these stats. The following ranges are provided for 10 player ring games at the micro level, but will remain fairly consistent as you move up.
VPIP: voluntarily put $ in pot (%). There is no sweet spot for this number, but the typical range is between 15 and 20. A few posters manage with sub-15 VPIP's and a few posters manage with VPIP's in the low 20's. As you move up, this number will often drop a point or two. Your VPIP will not be uniform across all positions. You should generally be tighter in EP than in LP.
PFR: preflop raise (%). The typical range is 7-10. A few posters exceed 10, but many posters begin their first 10K hands at or below 7. Some suggest that PFR should be half your VPIP, but that's an effectual coincidence and should not be your goal. If you only have a VPIP of 13 or 14, you will still often have the same PFR of 8-9 as someone with a higher VPIP. Your PFR will often be higher in LP than in EP.
VPIP from SB: typical range 25-35. This stat varies greatly by your table selection. If you typically play at passive games, you can expect this to be on the higher end. If you are in aggressive games, it will be lower. If its much lower than 25, you are missing out on a few profitable situations for the partial price. If its much higher than 35, you are probably playing too often and underestimating the difficulties of playing out of position postflop. Consult a starting hand chart for more information.
Saw flop all hands: This is an effect stat of your VPIP's and your table selection. It is often about 5% higher than your VPIP.
Steal defense: At the micro limits, this situation occurs very rarely and you will generally not have a significant sample size even after playing 20K hands. It is much better to focus on specific hands for defending situations as its often highly opponent dependent.
Attempt to steal: This situation occurs a bit more frequently than steal defense, but still it will not be too common until you hit the higher end of the micro limits. This number will often be in the mid-upper 30's, but will vary depending on your table selection and overall aggressiveness.
WSD: went to showdown. This number typical falls into the 28-32 range, but varies by your style. It is helpful in identifying potentially major leaks and too high a number often represents overly loose play on the big streets. Too low a number often represents a "fit or fold" mentality where you give up on too many profitable situations by ignoring the pot size.
WSF: won $ when saw flop. By coincidence, this number also falls into the 28-32 range. It is mostly an effect stat. If it is very high (35+) you may be running well. A number below 28 may indicate a problem with protecting your vulnerable hands or folding too many winners. Like many stats, a specific number does not indicate a specific problem, only that there may be one and you should be posting hands where you had difficult postflop decisions.
W$SD: won $ at showdown. Varies between 50-58. Below 50 often indicates that you are seeing too many showdowns while a number which is too high may indicate that you are folding too many winners. In limit Holdem, a pot is often quite large on the end, thus you often need to be quite sure that you don't have the best hand to make folding on the end correct.
FRB: folded to river bet. Varies between 40-55. This stat is pointless to analyze by itself. In combination with WSD or W$SD, it may indicate a problem of folding too much on the end (or not enough). As long as its not incredibly low or high, there are better ways to spend your time.
AF: aggression factor. This is an arbitrary number representing the relative frequency of which you are the aggressor on each street. The numbers vary greatly by your style and posting specific hands is generally better to determine if your aggressiveness is appropriate. VPIP/PFR account for your preflop aggression, so generally ignore AF - PF. Your postflop aggression will typically be around 2 - 3 on each postflop street. The flop is often higher than the turn and river, often exceeding 3.0. A micro posters overall AF (not including PF) will typically be in the 2.0 - 3.0 range. Some posters report success with overall AF's over 3, but nearly none have AF's under 2. This is not a stat worth overanalyzing unless it is woefully low or maniacally high.
when folds (%): This is not a stat worth overanalyzing as its speaks nothing of the appropriateness of your actions. Typical numbers may look something like this, but the range of "appropriate" numbers could be quite wide. (no fold: 12 _ PF: 75 _ flop: 8 _ turn: 3 _ river: 2).
check-raises: This is often in the 1% to 2% range of all possible actions. It is not worth analyzing this stat to decide if you are "check raising enough". Post hands to do that.
Win-rate: The number everyone is concerned about and the number we can do nothing about. Be happy with anything above 0 BB / 100 hands. The measure used is big bets per 100 hands. This accounts for multi-tabling and limit differences whereas $/hr gives you no real indication of success. Don't fret with something below 0 BB/100 if you have a small sample size. Variance and downswings happen and they can be quite large (200+ BB losses) and extend over a long period of time (10K+ hands). Your winrate will decrease as you move up in limits. Since its asked all the time, a 3 BB/100 winrate at .50/1.00 (online) is often regarded as great. 6 BB/100 is probably unsustainable. Once you reach 2/4 (online), 2 BB/100 is great for the long term and 4 BB/100 may be unsustainable. Also, you will be a loser from the blinds. The blind commitment is too great to overcome by solid play.
Standard Deviation / 100: This varies by your style, but 14-18 seems to be the typical range.
Summary: Remember, these stats speak nothing of the appropriateness of your actions, but primarily indicate the frequency of your actions (VPIP, PFR, etc). Generally lead towards a happy range for most of these numbers, but having good stats and good results are very different things. Stats are useful in identifying the existence of major leaks, but often leave you in a guessing game in determining where those leaks may reside. You will have to post hands or read materials to fix your leaks.
Playing many hands is very important before you begin to analyze any of the following stats. Some stats begin to converge fairly quickly (VPIP may be somewhat representative after 1000 hands) while other stats take a very long time to be meaningful (50K - 100K minimum to begin to look at your winrate). Often your style has changed by the time a stat converges to a meaningful number. If you feel as though you must post a stat post, it is strongly recommended that you have at least a 10K hand sample size. Until you reach 10K hands, your stats will often vary too much to put much weight on them. Use the following guide to track your progress and stat fluctuations relative to the typical ranges of these stats. The following ranges are provided for 10 player ring games at the micro level, but will remain fairly consistent as you move up.
VPIP: voluntarily put $ in pot (%). There is no sweet spot for this number, but the typical range is between 15 and 20. A few posters manage with sub-15 VPIP's and a few posters manage with VPIP's in the low 20's. As you move up, this number will often drop a point or two. Your VPIP will not be uniform across all positions. You should generally be tighter in EP than in LP.
PFR: preflop raise (%). The typical range is 7-10. A few posters exceed 10, but many posters begin their first 10K hands at or below 7. Some suggest that PFR should be half your VPIP, but that's an effectual coincidence and should not be your goal. If you only have a VPIP of 13 or 14, you will still often have the same PFR of 8-9 as someone with a higher VPIP. Your PFR will often be higher in LP than in EP.
VPIP from SB: typical range 25-35. This stat varies greatly by your table selection. If you typically play at passive games, you can expect this to be on the higher end. If you are in aggressive games, it will be lower. If its much lower than 25, you are missing out on a few profitable situations for the partial price. If its much higher than 35, you are probably playing too often and underestimating the difficulties of playing out of position postflop. Consult a starting hand chart for more information.
Saw flop all hands: This is an effect stat of your VPIP's and your table selection. It is often about 5% higher than your VPIP.
Steal defense: At the micro limits, this situation occurs very rarely and you will generally not have a significant sample size even after playing 20K hands. It is much better to focus on specific hands for defending situations as its often highly opponent dependent.
Attempt to steal: This situation occurs a bit more frequently than steal defense, but still it will not be too common until you hit the higher end of the micro limits. This number will often be in the mid-upper 30's, but will vary depending on your table selection and overall aggressiveness.
WSD: went to showdown. This number typical falls into the 28-32 range, but varies by your style. It is helpful in identifying potentially major leaks and too high a number often represents overly loose play on the big streets. Too low a number often represents a "fit or fold" mentality where you give up on too many profitable situations by ignoring the pot size.
WSF: won $ when saw flop. By coincidence, this number also falls into the 28-32 range. It is mostly an effect stat. If it is very high (35+) you may be running well. A number below 28 may indicate a problem with protecting your vulnerable hands or folding too many winners. Like many stats, a specific number does not indicate a specific problem, only that there may be one and you should be posting hands where you had difficult postflop decisions.
W$SD: won $ at showdown. Varies between 50-58. Below 50 often indicates that you are seeing too many showdowns while a number which is too high may indicate that you are folding too many winners. In limit Holdem, a pot is often quite large on the end, thus you often need to be quite sure that you don't have the best hand to make folding on the end correct.
FRB: folded to river bet. Varies between 40-55. This stat is pointless to analyze by itself. In combination with WSD or W$SD, it may indicate a problem of folding too much on the end (or not enough). As long as its not incredibly low or high, there are better ways to spend your time.
AF: aggression factor. This is an arbitrary number representing the relative frequency of which you are the aggressor on each street. The numbers vary greatly by your style and posting specific hands is generally better to determine if your aggressiveness is appropriate. VPIP/PFR account for your preflop aggression, so generally ignore AF - PF. Your postflop aggression will typically be around 2 - 3 on each postflop street. The flop is often higher than the turn and river, often exceeding 3.0. A micro posters overall AF (not including PF) will typically be in the 2.0 - 3.0 range. Some posters report success with overall AF's over 3, but nearly none have AF's under 2. This is not a stat worth overanalyzing unless it is woefully low or maniacally high.
when folds (%): This is not a stat worth overanalyzing as its speaks nothing of the appropriateness of your actions. Typical numbers may look something like this, but the range of "appropriate" numbers could be quite wide. (no fold: 12 _ PF: 75 _ flop: 8 _ turn: 3 _ river: 2).
check-raises: This is often in the 1% to 2% range of all possible actions. It is not worth analyzing this stat to decide if you are "check raising enough". Post hands to do that.
Win-rate: The number everyone is concerned about and the number we can do nothing about. Be happy with anything above 0 BB / 100 hands. The measure used is big bets per 100 hands. This accounts for multi-tabling and limit differences whereas $/hr gives you no real indication of success. Don't fret with something below 0 BB/100 if you have a small sample size. Variance and downswings happen and they can be quite large (200+ BB losses) and extend over a long period of time (10K+ hands). Your winrate will decrease as you move up in limits. Since its asked all the time, a 3 BB/100 winrate at .50/1.00 (online) is often regarded as great. 6 BB/100 is probably unsustainable. Once you reach 2/4 (online), 2 BB/100 is great for the long term and 4 BB/100 may be unsustainable. Also, you will be a loser from the blinds. The blind commitment is too great to overcome by solid play.
Standard Deviation / 100: This varies by your style, but 14-18 seems to be the typical range.
Summary: Remember, these stats speak nothing of the appropriateness of your actions, but primarily indicate the frequency of your actions (VPIP, PFR, etc). Generally lead towards a happy range for most of these numbers, but having good stats and good results are very different things. Stats are useful in identifying the existence of major leaks, but often leave you in a guessing game in determining where those leaks may reside. You will have to post hands or read materials to fix your leaks.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Poker Tracker
Using Poker Tracker (basic guide) - WillisNYC
1. Do you have sufficient preflop aggression? To answer this question, open up your ring game statistics and go to the "position stats" page. For each position other than the small blind, divide the "PF Raise %" by the "Vol. Put $ In Pot." If you get a number smaller than 0.5, you're not aggressive enough out of that position. See, aggression is a relative term; it should be a function of your level of looseness. You can be a consistently winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 12%, and you can be a consistently winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 30%, but only if you are sufficiently aggressive. My general guideline is that you should raise at least half the hands you play, from every position on the table.
2. Are you positionally aware? Positional awareness means that you understand Ed Miller's comment when he said:
Quote:
"Total all the dollars you've ever bet playing poker. The large majority of those dollars should have been bet from late position. Only a small percentage of your total handle should have been bet from up front."
To test this, go to the Position Stats and look down the list of VPIP from Button to UTG. You should see that VPIP steadily dropping the farther you get from the button. I'd love to see my button VPIP at double my UTG VPIP, but if my Button VPIP is at least 50% larger than my UTG VPIP, I'm happy with the situation.
3. How's my stealing? To check on your performance when trying a blind steal, go to the General Info. tab. Where it says "Att. To Steal Blinds" I'd like to see that number at LEAST 20%. (Personally, I like mine to be over 30%, but I'm very aggressive in these situations. If you're trying to steal the blinds less than 20% of the time, you're leaving lots of money on the table.) Now click on "Filters..." and under "Chance to Steal Blinds" click "Chance to Steal & Raised." Select OK and look at the numbers. This shows every time you've tried to steal the blinds, and how the attempt turned out for you. Under "Totals" see the "BB/Hand" statistic. That shows your per-hand winrate on blind steals. If you multiply this number by 100, it should be at least double your "PTBB/100" average winrate. If it's much less than that and you have a decent sample size, you have a hole in your game when it comes to blind stealing. This should be an exceedingly profitable thing to do when you try it; if it's not, you need to work on your strategy.
4. Defending the blinds. Click on "Turn Filter Off," and then click on "Filters..." again. Under "Blind Status" click on "Either Blind." Now under "Vol. Put $ In Pot" click on "Put Money In." This shows you if you're bleeding money out of the blinds. A "BB/Hand" of about -0.375 would indicate that you were no better off putting money into the pot than if you had folded. If your "BB/Hand" is larger than that, then you typically win back some of your blind money when you put money into the pot from the blinds. That's all you can really hope for. If you click on "Filters..." again and go under "Steal Attempted Against Your Blind" and click on "Steal Attempted." After you click "OK" you'll now see how you did when you chose to defend against a blind steal. Again, the magic number is for your "BB/Hand" to be bigger than -0.375; that means you're making back some of your blinds when you try to defend against a steal. If either of these numbers is lower than -0.375, you'd lose less money by always folding rather than doing what you're doing.
5. Heads-up play. Click on “Turn Filter Off,” then click on “Filters…” again. Under “Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” change the range from “0 to 10 players” to “2 to 2 players.” Hit “OK” and see what comes up. This shows you how you've done when you were heads-up preflop, but a flop was dealt. See how you've done in these situations. If things look OK, go back to “Filters…” and under “Pre-flop Raise” select “No Raise.” This will show you how you've done when you didn't raise preflop, but the hand was heads-up on the flop (this includes pure limping and when someone ELSE raised preflop, but not when you were the preflop raiser). Is this number positive? If not, it could be an indicator that you have trouble when you are not the aggressor preflop, especially without padding in the pot.
6. Multiway pots. Clear the filter and go back under filters. Change “Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” to “3 to 10 players.” This shows you how you do in multiway pots. If things look good, go back and select “No Raise” under “Pre-flop Raise.” Is it still positive? If so, you're selecting good times to play/limp multiway pots, and you're playing them well postflop.
7. Pocket pairs. Under “Filters…” change the “Type of Hole Cards” to “Pairs.” This will show you how you generally play and perform with pocket pairs. Your Total VPIP with these should be EXTREMELY high; unless you play at highly unusual tables, I'd be surprised to see this number below 85%. Pocket pairs make extremely powerful hands that are extremely well-hidden; if you're not playing them almost all the time, you're leaving money on the table. Also, your Total PFR% with these hands should be rather high -- at least 1/3 of your VPIP, if not 1/2. Some people have this number higher still, and I don't have a problem with that, especially at short-handed tables. If you have enough hands, I'd expect every one of these lines to be positive, and reasonably significantly so. If you have any glaringly negative numbers, especially AA-88, it may indicate bad play. Look over individual hands where you lose lots of money and see if you played too timidly early in the hand, or if you went too far unimproved in the face of resistance. Also, look at the hands where you won to see if you played too timidly, or if you routinely forced weaker hands out when you should have been milking them for profits.
8. Suited connectors. Under “Filters…” change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Suited Connectors.” I'm much less likely to play suited connectors than pocket pairs, but some people play them religiously. As a result, I don't really have a good suggestion as to how high your VPIP or PFR should be. However, your BB/hand should be positive; if it's not, you're probably not playing your suited connectors well. Remember: these hands play best in a multiway, unraised pot, or as a steal move. In the “Filters…” change “Vol. Put $ In Pot” to “Cold-Called.” When you hit OK, you should have almost no entries to view. Of the times you cold-called, you should be able to come up with a specific explanation for why you did so in each and every one of them. Review the hand histories; if you can't come up with a really good reason why you thought it better to cold-call, rather than raise or fold, you need to rethink your suited connector strategy. Good explanations: the raise was very small, villain is passive post-flop, I had position on villain, villain and I are both extremely deep-stacked, villain is incredibly aggressive preflop, my suited connectors are particularly strong, there are several cold-callers in front of me, etc. I'm not saying you shouldn't ever cold-call with suited connectors; rather, I'm saying you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY do so. Your default play here should be to fold weak suited connectors and reraise strong ones.
9. Unsuited connectors. Clear the filter and then go back into it. Change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Off-Suited Connectors.” Your VPIP for these hands should be noticeably smaller than your VPIP for suited connectors. Check your winrate and make sure it's positive. Filter for cold-calling and see if you had good reasons for doing so, keeping in mind that the reasons need to be even stronger than for suited connectors.
10. Postflop aggression. Clear the filter. Select the “More Detail…” button above the “Filters…” button. Scroll down. There is a section marked “First Action on Flop After A Pre-flop Raise.” This shows your likelihood of continuation betting. If you add Bet and Raise, the total should be at least 40%. If it's not, you're probably giving up too soon on your good hands, and that will cost you money in the long run. Remember: people who cold-call a preflop bet are often in fit-or-fold mode. If you don't bet, you don't give them a chance to fold. The pot is already decent-sized, and there's no reason to give some donk a free look at a turn card that could sink you. If you raised preflop, you need a good reason NOT to raise the flop. Continuation betting should be your default play. Scroll down a bit farther to “Aggression Factor.” Your total aggression factor should be at LEAST 2. No-limit is not a game where you can call frequently and turn a profit. You should always be looking to see if you can raise or fold; only if you have a good reason why you CANNOT raise or fold should you call. As a result, calling should be an infrequent occurrence in your play, which gives you a large aggression factor.
11. Check-raising. Some people never check-raise; others check-raise infrequently. I personally like to check-raise at least once in awhile; 1% would be fine, 0.5% would be acceptable. The goal of the check-raise is to remind your opponents that just because you checked does NOT mean that you don't have a hand. However, circumstances need to be very specific for a check-raise to be appropriate. Typically, I check-raise on the flop when OOP against a preflop raiser, or on the turn when OOP against a flop bettor/raiser who was clearly not on a draw (uncoordinated flop). If you are check raising much more than 2% of the time, you're being entirely too tricky for a SSNL table, and straightforward play would probably be more profitable for you.
1. Do you have sufficient preflop aggression? To answer this question, open up your ring game statistics and go to the "position stats" page. For each position other than the small blind, divide the "PF Raise %" by the "Vol. Put $ In Pot." If you get a number smaller than 0.5, you're not aggressive enough out of that position. See, aggression is a relative term; it should be a function of your level of looseness. You can be a consistently winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 12%, and you can be a consistently winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 30%, but only if you are sufficiently aggressive. My general guideline is that you should raise at least half the hands you play, from every position on the table.
2. Are you positionally aware? Positional awareness means that you understand Ed Miller's comment when he said:
Quote:
"Total all the dollars you've ever bet playing poker. The large majority of those dollars should have been bet from late position. Only a small percentage of your total handle should have been bet from up front."
To test this, go to the Position Stats and look down the list of VPIP from Button to UTG. You should see that VPIP steadily dropping the farther you get from the button. I'd love to see my button VPIP at double my UTG VPIP, but if my Button VPIP is at least 50% larger than my UTG VPIP, I'm happy with the situation.
3. How's my stealing? To check on your performance when trying a blind steal, go to the General Info. tab. Where it says "Att. To Steal Blinds" I'd like to see that number at LEAST 20%. (Personally, I like mine to be over 30%, but I'm very aggressive in these situations. If you're trying to steal the blinds less than 20% of the time, you're leaving lots of money on the table.) Now click on "Filters..." and under "Chance to Steal Blinds" click "Chance to Steal & Raised." Select OK and look at the numbers. This shows every time you've tried to steal the blinds, and how the attempt turned out for you. Under "Totals" see the "BB/Hand" statistic. That shows your per-hand winrate on blind steals. If you multiply this number by 100, it should be at least double your "PTBB/100" average winrate. If it's much less than that and you have a decent sample size, you have a hole in your game when it comes to blind stealing. This should be an exceedingly profitable thing to do when you try it; if it's not, you need to work on your strategy.
4. Defending the blinds. Click on "Turn Filter Off," and then click on "Filters..." again. Under "Blind Status" click on "Either Blind." Now under "Vol. Put $ In Pot" click on "Put Money In." This shows you if you're bleeding money out of the blinds. A "BB/Hand" of about -0.375 would indicate that you were no better off putting money into the pot than if you had folded. If your "BB/Hand" is larger than that, then you typically win back some of your blind money when you put money into the pot from the blinds. That's all you can really hope for. If you click on "Filters..." again and go under "Steal Attempted Against Your Blind" and click on "Steal Attempted." After you click "OK" you'll now see how you did when you chose to defend against a blind steal. Again, the magic number is for your "BB/Hand" to be bigger than -0.375; that means you're making back some of your blinds when you try to defend against a steal. If either of these numbers is lower than -0.375, you'd lose less money by always folding rather than doing what you're doing.
5. Heads-up play. Click on “Turn Filter Off,” then click on “Filters…” again. Under “Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” change the range from “0 to 10 players” to “2 to 2 players.” Hit “OK” and see what comes up. This shows you how you've done when you were heads-up preflop, but a flop was dealt. See how you've done in these situations. If things look OK, go back to “Filters…” and under “Pre-flop Raise” select “No Raise.” This will show you how you've done when you didn't raise preflop, but the hand was heads-up on the flop (this includes pure limping and when someone ELSE raised preflop, but not when you were the preflop raiser). Is this number positive? If not, it could be an indicator that you have trouble when you are not the aggressor preflop, especially without padding in the pot.
6. Multiway pots. Clear the filter and go back under filters. Change “Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” to “3 to 10 players.” This shows you how you do in multiway pots. If things look good, go back and select “No Raise” under “Pre-flop Raise.” Is it still positive? If so, you're selecting good times to play/limp multiway pots, and you're playing them well postflop.
7. Pocket pairs. Under “Filters…” change the “Type of Hole Cards” to “Pairs.” This will show you how you generally play and perform with pocket pairs. Your Total VPIP with these should be EXTREMELY high; unless you play at highly unusual tables, I'd be surprised to see this number below 85%. Pocket pairs make extremely powerful hands that are extremely well-hidden; if you're not playing them almost all the time, you're leaving money on the table. Also, your Total PFR% with these hands should be rather high -- at least 1/3 of your VPIP, if not 1/2. Some people have this number higher still, and I don't have a problem with that, especially at short-handed tables. If you have enough hands, I'd expect every one of these lines to be positive, and reasonably significantly so. If you have any glaringly negative numbers, especially AA-88, it may indicate bad play. Look over individual hands where you lose lots of money and see if you played too timidly early in the hand, or if you went too far unimproved in the face of resistance. Also, look at the hands where you won to see if you played too timidly, or if you routinely forced weaker hands out when you should have been milking them for profits.
8. Suited connectors. Under “Filters…” change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Suited Connectors.” I'm much less likely to play suited connectors than pocket pairs, but some people play them religiously. As a result, I don't really have a good suggestion as to how high your VPIP or PFR should be. However, your BB/hand should be positive; if it's not, you're probably not playing your suited connectors well. Remember: these hands play best in a multiway, unraised pot, or as a steal move. In the “Filters…” change “Vol. Put $ In Pot” to “Cold-Called.” When you hit OK, you should have almost no entries to view. Of the times you cold-called, you should be able to come up with a specific explanation for why you did so in each and every one of them. Review the hand histories; if you can't come up with a really good reason why you thought it better to cold-call, rather than raise or fold, you need to rethink your suited connector strategy. Good explanations: the raise was very small, villain is passive post-flop, I had position on villain, villain and I are both extremely deep-stacked, villain is incredibly aggressive preflop, my suited connectors are particularly strong, there are several cold-callers in front of me, etc. I'm not saying you shouldn't ever cold-call with suited connectors; rather, I'm saying you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY do so. Your default play here should be to fold weak suited connectors and reraise strong ones.
9. Unsuited connectors. Clear the filter and then go back into it. Change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Off-Suited Connectors.” Your VPIP for these hands should be noticeably smaller than your VPIP for suited connectors. Check your winrate and make sure it's positive. Filter for cold-calling and see if you had good reasons for doing so, keeping in mind that the reasons need to be even stronger than for suited connectors.
10. Postflop aggression. Clear the filter. Select the “More Detail…” button above the “Filters…” button. Scroll down. There is a section marked “First Action on Flop After A Pre-flop Raise.” This shows your likelihood of continuation betting. If you add Bet and Raise, the total should be at least 40%. If it's not, you're probably giving up too soon on your good hands, and that will cost you money in the long run. Remember: people who cold-call a preflop bet are often in fit-or-fold mode. If you don't bet, you don't give them a chance to fold. The pot is already decent-sized, and there's no reason to give some donk a free look at a turn card that could sink you. If you raised preflop, you need a good reason NOT to raise the flop. Continuation betting should be your default play. Scroll down a bit farther to “Aggression Factor.” Your total aggression factor should be at LEAST 2. No-limit is not a game where you can call frequently and turn a profit. You should always be looking to see if you can raise or fold; only if you have a good reason why you CANNOT raise or fold should you call. As a result, calling should be an infrequent occurrence in your play, which gives you a large aggression factor.
11. Check-raising. Some people never check-raise; others check-raise infrequently. I personally like to check-raise at least once in awhile; 1% would be fine, 0.5% would be acceptable. The goal of the check-raise is to remind your opponents that just because you checked does NOT mean that you don't have a hand. However, circumstances need to be very specific for a check-raise to be appropriate. Typically, I check-raise on the flop when OOP against a preflop raiser, or on the turn when OOP against a flop bettor/raiser who was clearly not on a draw (uncoordinated flop). If you are check raising much more than 2% of the time, you're being entirely too tricky for a SSNL table, and straightforward play would probably be more profitable for you.
Useful Poker Tracker article
This article will concentrate on the six statistics that are most important to the decisions that you make while playing a ring game. We will go through each of these statistics in detail, explaining where those numbers lie for various types of players and how to use those numbers against them in your decision making process. Those numbers are VP$IP, PFR%, AF, WSD%, W$ASD% and Check Raise%. (Voluntarily Put Dollars In the Pot percentage, PreFlop Raise percentage, Aggression Factor, Went to ShowDown percentage, Won Dollars At Show Down percentage and Check Raise percentage respectively.)
VP$IP and PFR along with AF are the three keys to understanding what kind of player that you are dealing with. The other numbers help you in your decision processes in certain circumstances, but these first three numbers define who you are up against and how they are playing. Also for the purposes of this article, whenever I say raise or bet, I mean a REAL NL type raise or bet which means at least ½ and usually ¾ up to a pot size bet. Minimum bets or 2x raises are not real NL raises and should be considered to be poor plays made by ignorant players until they prove otherwise. The 2x raise or minimum bet is usually the first clue alerting me that I am facing an inexperienced NL player.
VP$IP tells you how often your opponent is voluntarily putting money in the pot. Thus limping from the big blind is not included in this percentage. A true rock who only plays top ten hands will have a VP$IP of 10% or less. This kind of player is very rare to find in low level NL games. (Less than 1% of my database) A player with VP$IP of 10 would be VERY tight. He would only be playing pairs of AA- 66, AK, AQ and maybe AJ and KQ. He MIGHT play AJ or AT or KJ and maybe the other pocket pairs.
It becomes very easy to put this guy on a hand and remember these stats are valid when he plays any hand where he has to put money in the pot.
As the VP$IP goes higher, it becomes more difficult to determine what hands your opponents are playing. However examining what they could be playing is helpful.
A VP$IP of 10-20 is a more common range where you will find about 15% of your opponents and is still considered tight. These players will be playing top ten hands, plus perhaps any ace and small pocket pairs. His hand mix could include broadway hands which are any hands that add up to 20 such as TJ and AT. It is unlikely that an opponent with this, low VP$IP will be playing suited connectors below JT or hands like K9. However you cannot entirely rule out suited connectors if this player is not playing broadway hands or Ax. Judgment and observation must still be taken into consideration, even with all this information at your fingertips.
The next range of hands extends from 20-30% VP$IP and encompasses approximately 25% of players. Players in this range will most likely play all the above hands plus suited connectors down to 56 or so and most aces from A8 on up. He may also play some gapped connectors and probably all small pairs. Broadway hands are most likely on this players starting menu as well. It is no longer easy to put this player on a hand based on just VP$IP.
Nearly 25% of players will have a VP$IP of 30-40%. This is where the last of the players who show some semblance of hand selection reside. True LAG players will have VP$IP in this range. LAGs will play all the hands listed above, plus any two cards if they are first to act on the cutoff or the button. It is VERY hard to put this player on a hand. LAGs and non lags will play gapped, suited connectors and maybe just two connected or one gapped non suited cards.
Beyond 40% VP$IP is the level where your opponents are exercising very little hand selection. If he has a VPI$IP between 40 and 50, any two suited cards are probably playable in addition to all the above hands. Anything over 50% and this player should be on your fish list and you should follow him from table to table as he gives money away hand over fist. Surprisingly, a little over 18% of my database has people who play over 50% of hands and an additional 15% who play between 40-50. If one of these guys buys in for the max and rebuys when busted, or if he gets lucky and wins some pots, put them on your buddy list if your site has one and follow them from table to table. Truly, they are valuable enough that you should want to do this. You may even want to fire up your incognito name on the site, just so you can poach these fish after they start to notice that you and every other shark is following them around. Sadly, they usually disappear as soon as they tire of constantly replenishing their bankroll. If you find such a fish it is best to hunt him this week, because he probably won't be here next week.
VP$IP is valuable but preflop raise percentage can allow you to truly narrow in on what hands your opponent is playing for a raise. A rock and some other styles may well have a PFR of 3% or less! These super tight creatures fill up a full 20% of my database! These special creatures are invaluable since this low number tells you that they are ONLY raising with AA, KK QQ, and AK. How valuable is it to be able to narrow your opponent down to these very few hands? Decision making against these guys is VERY easy when they come in for a raise! Other than pocket pairs when the 8-1 rule is met, it is horribly negative EV to call a raise against these guys. I don't even think about it if I don't have a pocket pair!
The next band of raising percentages goes from 3-10% PFR. Opponents in this range are only raising with top ten hands and maybe AQ or KQ if they are first to act and their PFR is close to 10%. MAYBE they raise with a hand as low as a Broadway hand or any ace if they are on the button and first to act. Quite often opponents with a PFR of 10 or less will NOT even do that much! IF their PFR is 7 or less they are not raising in late position with anything less than a top ten hand probably 99% of the time! This is great information and guess what? Almost 35% of your opponents will raise with this percentage of hands! Your post flop decision making should be fairly easy when playing this type of player.
The next band of raisers goes from 10-20% PFR and it becomes more difficult to put these players on a hand. A player with 17-20% PFR is raising with top ten hands and most likely all the following hands when there is no action ahead of him and is in middle to late position: Broadway hands, suited connectors and aces down to A8. He may also be raising with small pairs when in late position.
Anything beyond 20% PFR and it becomes VERY difficult, if not impossible to put him on a hand. A true LAG will play 25% of his hands for a raise and will be raising on the button and sometimes the cutoff with ANYTHING if there is no action ahead of him.
However, when players are raising this high percentage of hands, we have many options available to us. Reraising them with a top ten hand is certainly advisable. It is also a winning play to reraise them or call with marginal hands because you know they are often raising with junk! If you have position against this type of player, it can be profitable to call their preflop raise with any marginal hand. Then call their continuation bet and when they check on 4th, bet out on the turn and you will take down the pot well over 50% of the time because 33% of the time they have completely missed the flop and will run at the first sign of real resistance. This is a great example of playing the player, not the cards since it does not matter what you have!
Anyone raising with more than 30% of his hands is a true maniac which you can exploit via the above methods with even more confidence, because his raising percentage is too high to be a successful winning style. Thus you can be confident that you are playing a LAG in training or a total donk.
Aggression Factor or AF determines how aggressive your opponents are. AF is determined by dividing the number of times you raise or bet by the number of times that you call. This factor tells a lot about your opponent. An aggression factor under 1 is considered to be very weak and you can generally bully this type of opponent almost endlessly. Unless he is a calling station, you can bet against him at will and he will fold unless he holds at least top pair and probably top kicker to go with it. When discussing Went to ShowDown percentage I will tell you how to make sure he is not the calling station variety that foils this betting strategy.
Most opponents AF resides in the 1 to 2 range. These players usually are straightforward ABC poker players who bet when they have a hand, check when they do not and call when they have a draw. These guys are the definition of plain vanilla and relatively easy to play against. If you were the preflop raiser and this guy is check raising you or betting the turn when you check, run for the hills because he is screaming out that he has a set or another strong made hand.
Lastly, you have true aggressives, aggros as some would call them. They have aggression factors above 2 and running as high as 5. These guys make continuation bets above 50% of the time. They bet flushes and open ended draws. They bet when last to act and everyone else has checked. They bet top pair with low kickers if they are first to act in a pot where everyone has limped. They will also reraise just to find out if you ‘really' have a hand or to try to get a free card for their flush draw. Playing against them is tricky if you don't have the nuts. However if their AF is 3 or above you can profitably reraise them in many circumstances since these guys only understand a swift punch in the nose. Reraising them with top pair or better is a fine way to find out where you are at. The number of times that they fold will far outnumber the times that they hit back at you when you reraise them.
Calling them down with 2nd pair or a pocket pair is a tactic that can be used successfully against them as well. Care must be taken when doing this though, since they can sometimes hit a hand and make you pay for it expensively if you call to the river. Addtionally, if you make your hand against this type of player, you can often count on him to bet your hand for you. If you are fortunate enough to flop the nuts, this is the opponent most likely to bluff his entire stack off to you as you call him down. Be aware though, that many aggros are attuned to these situations and tend to slow down if the board is scary or if you have never called in any other situation previously. These guys win by becoming great post flop players and readers so you must treat them with care.
In some Poker Tracker literature out there, I have seen claims that AF higher than 3 is too high and bordering on maniacal. On the contrary, I know many successful players with AF in the 3-5 range and mine hovers around 4.5. Some of these players have low PFR percentages (5% or less) and that is part of the reason that their AF is so high. You have to look out especially carefully for these guys because they are coming at you with AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK and nothing else. Thus you have to begin to look at the numbers in combination in order to understand how to treat them. If your opponent has an AF of 4.5 and his PFR percentage is 25%, then you can treat him very differently from the opponent with a PFR of 5%.
The last three categories of numbers that I recommend you looking at for PT are all numbers that mean something when looked at when in combination with the numbers above. The WSD% tells you how often an opponent goes to the river. This number means little without looking at the other statistics of the player in question. This key stat in combination with the W$ASD% is how you identify your calling stations at the table.
The calling stations will go to showdown (WSD%) over 30% and they will be losing at the showdown more than 55% of the time. (W$ASD 45% or less) Most calling stations will have VP$IP over 30%, WSD% over 30% and W$ASD% of less than 45%. When all these three conditions are met and you have top pair, you can easily bet all the way to the river with confidence. Conversely he is the last guy on the table you want to try to bluff. That is what he lives for, so don't give him the thrill of picking off your bluffs.
Winning players generally have W$ASD% higher than 45%. If a player on your table has at least 100 hands logged and his W$ASD% is lower than 45%, his other stats will probably illuminate his problems. High VP$IP of over 40% might be one, or WSD% of over 30% might be another. A guy with all these factors should be painted with a big fat guppy note and hunted down relentlessly until he gives up every last dollar on the site that he dares to put on the table.
The last category of interest is the check raise percentage. Many aggros use this tactic too much and can be detected by observing this statistic. A good/great player will normally have a check raise percentage of .5 to 1.5%. Anything over 2 and there is a very good chance that your opponent who has an AF of 3 or more is abusing this tactic.
Since he is often using the tactic as a bluff or semi bluff, this opponent is a great target for a reraise to send him reeling and folding in shame. Just remember to make the reraise a strong 3x one or he may call and outplay you on later streets. I find that certain tournament players tend to be among the worst offenders of this tactic. PT helps me identify them and a timely reraise often neuters their stacks.
VP$IP and PFR along with AF are the three keys to understanding what kind of player that you are dealing with. The other numbers help you in your decision processes in certain circumstances, but these first three numbers define who you are up against and how they are playing. Also for the purposes of this article, whenever I say raise or bet, I mean a REAL NL type raise or bet which means at least ½ and usually ¾ up to a pot size bet. Minimum bets or 2x raises are not real NL raises and should be considered to be poor plays made by ignorant players until they prove otherwise. The 2x raise or minimum bet is usually the first clue alerting me that I am facing an inexperienced NL player.
VP$IP tells you how often your opponent is voluntarily putting money in the pot. Thus limping from the big blind is not included in this percentage. A true rock who only plays top ten hands will have a VP$IP of 10% or less. This kind of player is very rare to find in low level NL games. (Less than 1% of my database) A player with VP$IP of 10 would be VERY tight. He would only be playing pairs of AA- 66, AK, AQ and maybe AJ and KQ. He MIGHT play AJ or AT or KJ and maybe the other pocket pairs.
It becomes very easy to put this guy on a hand and remember these stats are valid when he plays any hand where he has to put money in the pot.
As the VP$IP goes higher, it becomes more difficult to determine what hands your opponents are playing. However examining what they could be playing is helpful.
A VP$IP of 10-20 is a more common range where you will find about 15% of your opponents and is still considered tight. These players will be playing top ten hands, plus perhaps any ace and small pocket pairs. His hand mix could include broadway hands which are any hands that add up to 20 such as TJ and AT. It is unlikely that an opponent with this, low VP$IP will be playing suited connectors below JT or hands like K9. However you cannot entirely rule out suited connectors if this player is not playing broadway hands or Ax. Judgment and observation must still be taken into consideration, even with all this information at your fingertips.
The next range of hands extends from 20-30% VP$IP and encompasses approximately 25% of players. Players in this range will most likely play all the above hands plus suited connectors down to 56 or so and most aces from A8 on up. He may also play some gapped connectors and probably all small pairs. Broadway hands are most likely on this players starting menu as well. It is no longer easy to put this player on a hand based on just VP$IP.
Nearly 25% of players will have a VP$IP of 30-40%. This is where the last of the players who show some semblance of hand selection reside. True LAG players will have VP$IP in this range. LAGs will play all the hands listed above, plus any two cards if they are first to act on the cutoff or the button. It is VERY hard to put this player on a hand. LAGs and non lags will play gapped, suited connectors and maybe just two connected or one gapped non suited cards.
Beyond 40% VP$IP is the level where your opponents are exercising very little hand selection. If he has a VPI$IP between 40 and 50, any two suited cards are probably playable in addition to all the above hands. Anything over 50% and this player should be on your fish list and you should follow him from table to table as he gives money away hand over fist. Surprisingly, a little over 18% of my database has people who play over 50% of hands and an additional 15% who play between 40-50. If one of these guys buys in for the max and rebuys when busted, or if he gets lucky and wins some pots, put them on your buddy list if your site has one and follow them from table to table. Truly, they are valuable enough that you should want to do this. You may even want to fire up your incognito name on the site, just so you can poach these fish after they start to notice that you and every other shark is following them around. Sadly, they usually disappear as soon as they tire of constantly replenishing their bankroll. If you find such a fish it is best to hunt him this week, because he probably won't be here next week.
VP$IP is valuable but preflop raise percentage can allow you to truly narrow in on what hands your opponent is playing for a raise. A rock and some other styles may well have a PFR of 3% or less! These super tight creatures fill up a full 20% of my database! These special creatures are invaluable since this low number tells you that they are ONLY raising with AA, KK QQ, and AK. How valuable is it to be able to narrow your opponent down to these very few hands? Decision making against these guys is VERY easy when they come in for a raise! Other than pocket pairs when the 8-1 rule is met, it is horribly negative EV to call a raise against these guys. I don't even think about it if I don't have a pocket pair!
The next band of raising percentages goes from 3-10% PFR. Opponents in this range are only raising with top ten hands and maybe AQ or KQ if they are first to act and their PFR is close to 10%. MAYBE they raise with a hand as low as a Broadway hand or any ace if they are on the button and first to act. Quite often opponents with a PFR of 10 or less will NOT even do that much! IF their PFR is 7 or less they are not raising in late position with anything less than a top ten hand probably 99% of the time! This is great information and guess what? Almost 35% of your opponents will raise with this percentage of hands! Your post flop decision making should be fairly easy when playing this type of player.
The next band of raisers goes from 10-20% PFR and it becomes more difficult to put these players on a hand. A player with 17-20% PFR is raising with top ten hands and most likely all the following hands when there is no action ahead of him and is in middle to late position: Broadway hands, suited connectors and aces down to A8. He may also be raising with small pairs when in late position.
Anything beyond 20% PFR and it becomes VERY difficult, if not impossible to put him on a hand. A true LAG will play 25% of his hands for a raise and will be raising on the button and sometimes the cutoff with ANYTHING if there is no action ahead of him.
However, when players are raising this high percentage of hands, we have many options available to us. Reraising them with a top ten hand is certainly advisable. It is also a winning play to reraise them or call with marginal hands because you know they are often raising with junk! If you have position against this type of player, it can be profitable to call their preflop raise with any marginal hand. Then call their continuation bet and when they check on 4th, bet out on the turn and you will take down the pot well over 50% of the time because 33% of the time they have completely missed the flop and will run at the first sign of real resistance. This is a great example of playing the player, not the cards since it does not matter what you have!
Anyone raising with more than 30% of his hands is a true maniac which you can exploit via the above methods with even more confidence, because his raising percentage is too high to be a successful winning style. Thus you can be confident that you are playing a LAG in training or a total donk.
Aggression Factor or AF determines how aggressive your opponents are. AF is determined by dividing the number of times you raise or bet by the number of times that you call. This factor tells a lot about your opponent. An aggression factor under 1 is considered to be very weak and you can generally bully this type of opponent almost endlessly. Unless he is a calling station, you can bet against him at will and he will fold unless he holds at least top pair and probably top kicker to go with it. When discussing Went to ShowDown percentage I will tell you how to make sure he is not the calling station variety that foils this betting strategy.
Most opponents AF resides in the 1 to 2 range. These players usually are straightforward ABC poker players who bet when they have a hand, check when they do not and call when they have a draw. These guys are the definition of plain vanilla and relatively easy to play against. If you were the preflop raiser and this guy is check raising you or betting the turn when you check, run for the hills because he is screaming out that he has a set or another strong made hand.
Lastly, you have true aggressives, aggros as some would call them. They have aggression factors above 2 and running as high as 5. These guys make continuation bets above 50% of the time. They bet flushes and open ended draws. They bet when last to act and everyone else has checked. They bet top pair with low kickers if they are first to act in a pot where everyone has limped. They will also reraise just to find out if you ‘really' have a hand or to try to get a free card for their flush draw. Playing against them is tricky if you don't have the nuts. However if their AF is 3 or above you can profitably reraise them in many circumstances since these guys only understand a swift punch in the nose. Reraising them with top pair or better is a fine way to find out where you are at. The number of times that they fold will far outnumber the times that they hit back at you when you reraise them.
Calling them down with 2nd pair or a pocket pair is a tactic that can be used successfully against them as well. Care must be taken when doing this though, since they can sometimes hit a hand and make you pay for it expensively if you call to the river. Addtionally, if you make your hand against this type of player, you can often count on him to bet your hand for you. If you are fortunate enough to flop the nuts, this is the opponent most likely to bluff his entire stack off to you as you call him down. Be aware though, that many aggros are attuned to these situations and tend to slow down if the board is scary or if you have never called in any other situation previously. These guys win by becoming great post flop players and readers so you must treat them with care.
In some Poker Tracker literature out there, I have seen claims that AF higher than 3 is too high and bordering on maniacal. On the contrary, I know many successful players with AF in the 3-5 range and mine hovers around 4.5. Some of these players have low PFR percentages (5% or less) and that is part of the reason that their AF is so high. You have to look out especially carefully for these guys because they are coming at you with AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK and nothing else. Thus you have to begin to look at the numbers in combination in order to understand how to treat them. If your opponent has an AF of 4.5 and his PFR percentage is 25%, then you can treat him very differently from the opponent with a PFR of 5%.
The last three categories of numbers that I recommend you looking at for PT are all numbers that mean something when looked at when in combination with the numbers above. The WSD% tells you how often an opponent goes to the river. This number means little without looking at the other statistics of the player in question. This key stat in combination with the W$ASD% is how you identify your calling stations at the table.
The calling stations will go to showdown (WSD%) over 30% and they will be losing at the showdown more than 55% of the time. (W$ASD 45% or less) Most calling stations will have VP$IP over 30%, WSD% over 30% and W$ASD% of less than 45%. When all these three conditions are met and you have top pair, you can easily bet all the way to the river with confidence. Conversely he is the last guy on the table you want to try to bluff. That is what he lives for, so don't give him the thrill of picking off your bluffs.
Winning players generally have W$ASD% higher than 45%. If a player on your table has at least 100 hands logged and his W$ASD% is lower than 45%, his other stats will probably illuminate his problems. High VP$IP of over 40% might be one, or WSD% of over 30% might be another. A guy with all these factors should be painted with a big fat guppy note and hunted down relentlessly until he gives up every last dollar on the site that he dares to put on the table.
The last category of interest is the check raise percentage. Many aggros use this tactic too much and can be detected by observing this statistic. A good/great player will normally have a check raise percentage of .5 to 1.5%. Anything over 2 and there is a very good chance that your opponent who has an AF of 3 or more is abusing this tactic.
Since he is often using the tactic as a bluff or semi bluff, this opponent is a great target for a reraise to send him reeling and folding in shame. Just remember to make the reraise a strong 3x one or he may call and outplay you on later streets. I find that certain tournament players tend to be among the worst offenders of this tactic. PT helps me identify them and a timely reraise often neuters their stacks.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
TAG playbook
From Blinders
I don't think too much has been written on this topic, though it has been touched upon by various authors to some extent. I will do my best to explain my thoughts on the matter, and through comments and follow-up posts, I may be able to make some sense out of what I am trying to explain here.
First of all, I play a pretty low variance form of NL Holdem cash. It was not always this way, but my game has evolved to where variance has been pretty much minimized. This is a good thing in some ways, and bad in others. Playing a low variance style minimizes the swings in bankroll, and keeps you from having lengthy losing streaks that can mess with your confidence. This is a huge benefit. The negative in playing this way, is that it is not the way to fully maximize profit at the tables. I could make more per hour by allowing more variance into my game, but as a result I would have to deal with the bankroll swings that come along for the ride. My game has been criticized many a time, because of my ubertightness. I usually shake this off, because I know that the way I play works and is solidly profitable. The one criticism that has stayed with me, though came from F-train a while back when reviewing some statistics that I had posted. I will summarize what he said (and try to put his exact words here later). He basically said that my post flop aggression was off the chart, and that because of this I was leaving money on the table. I would need to learn how to go deeper into the board (past the flop), and because of this learn how to make some huge laydowns if I wanted to further improve my game. He has a very valid point here, but would it really be worth it?
So before I start lets just talk about the basics of variance. Some charts would be helpful here, but I will try to explain in a way the mathematically inclined will understand. Variance in it's simplest form could be represented by a Sine wave. It goes up and down around break-even at some amplitude, but over time the area under the curve goes to zero (overtime variance washes away). In the real world variance is random and chaotic, but still sums to zero overtime like a simple Sine wave does. A high variance game would have high amplitude in this signal. A low variance game would have low amplitude. The variance signal is then overlaid on your bankroll growth (Profit/Loss) signal. Imagine this as a straight line that slopes up if you are a winning player, or slopes down if you are a losing player. The rate at which you win or lose determines the slope of the line. So your overall bankroll growth is a combination of the variance signal and profit/loss signal. In general, the variance signal has a much, much higher amplitude and tends to drown out the profit/loss signal over short periods of time. Only over long periods of time (when variance washes away), can you see the underlying profit/loss trend.
For a winning player, variance is what makes it possible to lose. Imagine if the pot went to the person mathematically ahead when the money went in (no suckouts allowed), and when hand ranges came in to play the winner got their mathematical equity in the pot. Variance would be pretty much eliminated and winning players would win all sessions that they played in. Losing players would lose all sessions that they played in. Variance is what allows losing players to have winning sessions. Because of the way the human mind works, the losing player selectively remembers the winning sessions, and feels he is better that he really is. Variance keeps the fish coming back so it is a good thing. But, if you are a winning player, does a high level of variance really help. Possibly not. If you can minimize the variance, you can maximize the percentage of sessions that you win, and as a result potentially maximize your enjoyment and confidence in the game. For a losing player the opposite is true. Maximizing variance maximizes their chances that a session will be a winner. Wild play is actually better for a losing player given that the other lower variance choice is neutral on profit/loss. A losing player has no reason to play a low variance style. A winning player does in a way. They can use their profitability to outweigh a low variance signal and obtain much more consistent results.
So what makes one style high variance and one style low variance? Before I get into that, I will talk about how to recognize what type of style you or your opponents are playing. I have played cash games for a long time. I typically do not run my stack north of 2x my buy-in. I rarely "rack-out" (get stacked) in cash games. So I am minimizing my losses and minimizing my wins at the same time. I am attenuating the variance signal in some way. When my good friend smokkee started dabbling in cash games (when he had only been playing for several months), I would see him routinely sitting with 3x, 4x, 5x the buy-in. Levels that I have never got to in a cash game, he was regularly achieving. Of course he was getting stacked left and right as well. He was playing a very high variance form of cash game. I would put lucko, wes, Fuel55 and doubleas in the same category. They play a high variance (and profitable) cash game style. So the signs in general, are how easy and often to you get up to 3x or 4x your buy-in in a cash game, and how often are you reloading your chips. Most people play a high variance style. Nearly all new NL cash game players play a high variance style. NL is much higher variance than limit (obviously).
So now I will try to explain the aspects of a low variance playing style below:
1) Play very tight preflop. The TAG style is much lower variance than the LAG style. TAGs play fewer hands and get into fewer unique situations as a result. LAGs play more hands and push slimmer edges post flop as a result, increasing the variance.
2) Multitable lower limits vs. single table higher limits . If you play 3 or 4 tables at a time, your variance is reduced because you are getting much more hands in to wash it away. If you get stacked on one table, your winnings from the others will offset this. If you play a single table at a higher level for the same profit potential, variance is magnified by 3x to 4x vs. multitabling.
3) Don't limp from early with hands that you normally will not call a raise with. Limp early with small to medium pairs, but not with medium suited connectors. You can usually call the raise with the pair, but not with the suited connectors. Sometimes you will limp with suited connectors, get raised, get some callers, and feel you are priced in for a flop. This is a very high variance play, as it is pretty unlikely you will hit the flop hard. You might also lose a huge pot to a higher flush when you do hit. Suited connectors in general are a high variance starting hand.
4) Don't call big raises with middle pocket pairs preflop. It is ok to call a reasonable raise with a small pair preflop (3x-4x). Be careful when it is raised more than this. Use the rule of 10 (or better yet rule of 15) to see if your opponent's stack, and yours are big enough to "set mine". Avoid the borderline situations by folding, and look for situations that have great implied odds. Playing a pocket pair for a big raise with implied odds barely there is high variance.
5) Don't raise small to medium pocket pairs from early or middle position (full ring). It is best to limp/call these hands to minimize variance. Also if you don't hit your set, don't get too crazy post flop. Folding to pressure when you miss your set minimizes variance. Trying to play on with overs on board when you have a middle pair is high variance. You will remember the massive pots that you won when raising pairs and hitting a set, or calling a big raise and hitting, but the most profit is made when you limp multiway and hit over the long term.
6) Be aggressive on the flop. Take your stabs at the pot early, and find out where you are at early before the pot gets too big. Checking, betting, raising, and folding on the flop are low variance. Calling the flop is high variance (in general).
7) Don't be overly aggressive without a made hand on later streets. Double and triple barreled bluffs are high variance. Try more single barreled bluffs, and less of the double and triple barreled types to minimize variance.
8) Don't make heroic calls on the river. When you call the river in NL you should be pretty sure you are ahead. Ace high calls on the river are high variance. Look for a better spot. Call when you pretty much know you have it, or are at least priced in.
9) Don't get cute with big pairs preflop. If you look down at AA or KK preflop, and there are a lot of limpers, raise it up pretty big and take it down right there, or at least get heads-up. If someone raises before you act, reraise them enough that you take away there set mining odds, and push the flop if they call. Don't limp ever with these hands preflop if you want to minimize variance. Make a big raise, and eliminate the competition.
10) Learn how to fold TT-QQ and AK preflop. There are times when these hands are obviously beat. Fold them in these situations and look for a better spot. Going to war preflop with these hands is a very high variance play.
11) Don't slow play or float (too much). Slow playing and floating are both high variance plays. Betting your good hands, and folding your junk is low variance. There are times when these plays are correct (for profit reasons), but they will always increase your variance.
12) Semibluff your draws (especially when in position). Draws in general are high variance. If you can control the betting on draws you can lower the variance. Semibluff your draws, and try to take free cards in position, and take pots down uncontested before your draw hits. Manage the pot size when drawing so that most of it goes in after you hit to minimize variance. Calling with draws all the way down is high variance.
13) Learn to make huge laydowns. Probably the most difficult situation you can get in is when you have a good hand, and are facing a ton of pressure. You may need to fold a set, or a straight, or a flush, when it is pretty clear that you are beat. If you can make these folds your variance will be reduced.
14) Choose tables with short stacks present. If you are playing at a table with all full buy-ins, variance is maximized. As the mix goes towards shorter stacks variance (proportional to potential pot sizes) is reduced.
15) Play full ring vs. short handed. Full ring cash games allow you to exploit bigger edges with bigger hands. Short handed the blinds will eat you up if apply this strategy. You have to push smaller edges with more marginal hands short handed, so your variance will be higher accordingly.
16) Play in position. When you are making moves/playing hands in position you can keep your variance lower by having better control of the pot size and betting. When out of position, the variance goes way up because others can exploit your positional disadvantage, and manipulate the pot size beyond your control.
This is what I have so far and they are not in any particular order. I am sure there are many other ways that I have missed. Let me know if you can think of anything, or if you think I am way off in what I am saying. I would say that most NL cash game players should go through stages. Initially they will play high variance. Then their variance will come down a bit as they become better. The better players will allow more variance back in their games if it means more profit. I am not sure if I am ready to do this yet, but I will be a little stuck in my win rates until I am.
I don't think too much has been written on this topic, though it has been touched upon by various authors to some extent. I will do my best to explain my thoughts on the matter, and through comments and follow-up posts, I may be able to make some sense out of what I am trying to explain here.
First of all, I play a pretty low variance form of NL Holdem cash. It was not always this way, but my game has evolved to where variance has been pretty much minimized. This is a good thing in some ways, and bad in others. Playing a low variance style minimizes the swings in bankroll, and keeps you from having lengthy losing streaks that can mess with your confidence. This is a huge benefit. The negative in playing this way, is that it is not the way to fully maximize profit at the tables. I could make more per hour by allowing more variance into my game, but as a result I would have to deal with the bankroll swings that come along for the ride. My game has been criticized many a time, because of my ubertightness. I usually shake this off, because I know that the way I play works and is solidly profitable. The one criticism that has stayed with me, though came from F-train a while back when reviewing some statistics that I had posted. I will summarize what he said (and try to put his exact words here later). He basically said that my post flop aggression was off the chart, and that because of this I was leaving money on the table. I would need to learn how to go deeper into the board (past the flop), and because of this learn how to make some huge laydowns if I wanted to further improve my game. He has a very valid point here, but would it really be worth it?
So before I start lets just talk about the basics of variance. Some charts would be helpful here, but I will try to explain in a way the mathematically inclined will understand. Variance in it's simplest form could be represented by a Sine wave. It goes up and down around break-even at some amplitude, but over time the area under the curve goes to zero (overtime variance washes away). In the real world variance is random and chaotic, but still sums to zero overtime like a simple Sine wave does. A high variance game would have high amplitude in this signal. A low variance game would have low amplitude. The variance signal is then overlaid on your bankroll growth (Profit/Loss) signal. Imagine this as a straight line that slopes up if you are a winning player, or slopes down if you are a losing player. The rate at which you win or lose determines the slope of the line. So your overall bankroll growth is a combination of the variance signal and profit/loss signal. In general, the variance signal has a much, much higher amplitude and tends to drown out the profit/loss signal over short periods of time. Only over long periods of time (when variance washes away), can you see the underlying profit/loss trend.
For a winning player, variance is what makes it possible to lose. Imagine if the pot went to the person mathematically ahead when the money went in (no suckouts allowed), and when hand ranges came in to play the winner got their mathematical equity in the pot. Variance would be pretty much eliminated and winning players would win all sessions that they played in. Losing players would lose all sessions that they played in. Variance is what allows losing players to have winning sessions. Because of the way the human mind works, the losing player selectively remembers the winning sessions, and feels he is better that he really is. Variance keeps the fish coming back so it is a good thing. But, if you are a winning player, does a high level of variance really help. Possibly not. If you can minimize the variance, you can maximize the percentage of sessions that you win, and as a result potentially maximize your enjoyment and confidence in the game. For a losing player the opposite is true. Maximizing variance maximizes their chances that a session will be a winner. Wild play is actually better for a losing player given that the other lower variance choice is neutral on profit/loss. A losing player has no reason to play a low variance style. A winning player does in a way. They can use their profitability to outweigh a low variance signal and obtain much more consistent results.
So what makes one style high variance and one style low variance? Before I get into that, I will talk about how to recognize what type of style you or your opponents are playing. I have played cash games for a long time. I typically do not run my stack north of 2x my buy-in. I rarely "rack-out" (get stacked) in cash games. So I am minimizing my losses and minimizing my wins at the same time. I am attenuating the variance signal in some way. When my good friend smokkee started dabbling in cash games (when he had only been playing for several months), I would see him routinely sitting with 3x, 4x, 5x the buy-in. Levels that I have never got to in a cash game, he was regularly achieving. Of course he was getting stacked left and right as well. He was playing a very high variance form of cash game. I would put lucko, wes, Fuel55 and doubleas in the same category. They play a high variance (and profitable) cash game style. So the signs in general, are how easy and often to you get up to 3x or 4x your buy-in in a cash game, and how often are you reloading your chips. Most people play a high variance style. Nearly all new NL cash game players play a high variance style. NL is much higher variance than limit (obviously).
So now I will try to explain the aspects of a low variance playing style below:
1) Play very tight preflop. The TAG style is much lower variance than the LAG style. TAGs play fewer hands and get into fewer unique situations as a result. LAGs play more hands and push slimmer edges post flop as a result, increasing the variance.
2) Multitable lower limits vs. single table higher limits . If you play 3 or 4 tables at a time, your variance is reduced because you are getting much more hands in to wash it away. If you get stacked on one table, your winnings from the others will offset this. If you play a single table at a higher level for the same profit potential, variance is magnified by 3x to 4x vs. multitabling.
3) Don't limp from early with hands that you normally will not call a raise with. Limp early with small to medium pairs, but not with medium suited connectors. You can usually call the raise with the pair, but not with the suited connectors. Sometimes you will limp with suited connectors, get raised, get some callers, and feel you are priced in for a flop. This is a very high variance play, as it is pretty unlikely you will hit the flop hard. You might also lose a huge pot to a higher flush when you do hit. Suited connectors in general are a high variance starting hand.
4) Don't call big raises with middle pocket pairs preflop. It is ok to call a reasonable raise with a small pair preflop (3x-4x). Be careful when it is raised more than this. Use the rule of 10 (or better yet rule of 15) to see if your opponent's stack, and yours are big enough to "set mine". Avoid the borderline situations by folding, and look for situations that have great implied odds. Playing a pocket pair for a big raise with implied odds barely there is high variance.
5) Don't raise small to medium pocket pairs from early or middle position (full ring). It is best to limp/call these hands to minimize variance. Also if you don't hit your set, don't get too crazy post flop. Folding to pressure when you miss your set minimizes variance. Trying to play on with overs on board when you have a middle pair is high variance. You will remember the massive pots that you won when raising pairs and hitting a set, or calling a big raise and hitting, but the most profit is made when you limp multiway and hit over the long term.
6) Be aggressive on the flop. Take your stabs at the pot early, and find out where you are at early before the pot gets too big. Checking, betting, raising, and folding on the flop are low variance. Calling the flop is high variance (in general).
7) Don't be overly aggressive without a made hand on later streets. Double and triple barreled bluffs are high variance. Try more single barreled bluffs, and less of the double and triple barreled types to minimize variance.
8) Don't make heroic calls on the river. When you call the river in NL you should be pretty sure you are ahead. Ace high calls on the river are high variance. Look for a better spot. Call when you pretty much know you have it, or are at least priced in.
9) Don't get cute with big pairs preflop. If you look down at AA or KK preflop, and there are a lot of limpers, raise it up pretty big and take it down right there, or at least get heads-up. If someone raises before you act, reraise them enough that you take away there set mining odds, and push the flop if they call. Don't limp ever with these hands preflop if you want to minimize variance. Make a big raise, and eliminate the competition.
10) Learn how to fold TT-QQ and AK preflop. There are times when these hands are obviously beat. Fold them in these situations and look for a better spot. Going to war preflop with these hands is a very high variance play.
11) Don't slow play or float (too much). Slow playing and floating are both high variance plays. Betting your good hands, and folding your junk is low variance. There are times when these plays are correct (for profit reasons), but they will always increase your variance.
12) Semibluff your draws (especially when in position). Draws in general are high variance. If you can control the betting on draws you can lower the variance. Semibluff your draws, and try to take free cards in position, and take pots down uncontested before your draw hits. Manage the pot size when drawing so that most of it goes in after you hit to minimize variance. Calling with draws all the way down is high variance.
13) Learn to make huge laydowns. Probably the most difficult situation you can get in is when you have a good hand, and are facing a ton of pressure. You may need to fold a set, or a straight, or a flush, when it is pretty clear that you are beat. If you can make these folds your variance will be reduced.
14) Choose tables with short stacks present. If you are playing at a table with all full buy-ins, variance is maximized. As the mix goes towards shorter stacks variance (proportional to potential pot sizes) is reduced.
15) Play full ring vs. short handed. Full ring cash games allow you to exploit bigger edges with bigger hands. Short handed the blinds will eat you up if apply this strategy. You have to push smaller edges with more marginal hands short handed, so your variance will be higher accordingly.
16) Play in position. When you are making moves/playing hands in position you can keep your variance lower by having better control of the pot size and betting. When out of position, the variance goes way up because others can exploit your positional disadvantage, and manipulate the pot size beyond your control.
This is what I have so far and they are not in any particular order. I am sure there are many other ways that I have missed. Let me know if you can think of anything, or if you think I am way off in what I am saying. I would say that most NL cash game players should go through stages. Initially they will play high variance. Then their variance will come down a bit as they become better. The better players will allow more variance back in their games if it means more profit. I am not sure if I am ready to do this yet, but I will be a little stuck in my win rates until I am.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
someone hates stars worse than me
JustUnreal: you honest dude, gle
JustUnreal: glue
JustUnreal: you my witness
JustUnreal: site is ****ing me in the ***
Dealer: Game #30352612258: mjg06d wins pot ($2.50)
Dealer: Game #30352652325: DesertFalcon wins pot ($3)
Dealer: JustUnreal, it's your turn. You have 15 seconds to act
JustUnreal: omg
Dealer: Game #30352689338: topgun2005 wins pot ($3)
JustUnreal: I had K-K in pocket
JustUnreal: site ****ed me in the *** again
JustUnreal: glue
JustUnreal: you my witness
JustUnreal: site is ****ing me in the ***
Dealer: Game #30352612258: mjg06d wins pot ($2.50)
Dealer: Game #30352652325: DesertFalcon wins pot ($3)
Dealer: JustUnreal, it's your turn. You have 15 seconds to act
JustUnreal: omg
Dealer: Game #30352689338: topgun2005 wins pot ($3)
JustUnreal: I had K-K in pocket
JustUnreal: site ****ed me in the *** again
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Blinders Baseball Betting System
The System by Blinders
I have been a pretty big sports better most of my life. Most of the time, I analyze the match-ups, and come to a solid decision on what side to bet based on my sports knowledge. I have also employed betting "systems" in the past. One of the betting systems that I used in the past was for baseball, and it worked really well. I have not used this system in about 15 years, but I see no reason why it would not continue to work. Since IMO the system continues to work, yet I have not chosen to use it in a long time I have no problem revealing it here in detail, for someone who wants to take advantage of it. The system is basically an arbitrage system that takes advantage of the fact that Baseball is thinly bet compared to other sports, and has a very low house edge. The edge from arbitrage can easily out way the house edge, and lead to long term profits for the user of the system. Once you have convinced yourself statistically that the system works, you can ramp up the amounts you are betting and make some significant money on it. When I was last using the system I was betting between 2k to 5k a day as an unemployed UNLV student.
Baseball Betting
There are three main ways to bet on baseball. There is the money line which is a bet on who will win the game. There is the over/under line on what the total combined score will be. There is also a line called the "Run Line" which is a line with the favorite -1/2 run (The favorite to win by 2 runs or more). The system exploits the information from the over/under to find arbitrage opportunities between the Run Line and the Money Line. Arbitrage is simply a way of exploiting inefficient markets. The baseball betting market is inefficient because it is thinly traded. An example of arbitrage would be buying goods in the United States, transporting them to Europe and reselling at higher European prices. If the market is inefficient allowing for price disparity between two markets, and the cost of transport is less than the price disparity, guaranteed profits can be made. Guaranteed profits can be made betting baseball using arbitrage.
The System
So lets take a hypothetical game like the Yankees vs. the Red Sox. Lets say that Beckett is pitching for Boston and Boston is the favorite. The money line might be -145 (bet $145 to win $100) for Boston, and +140 (bet $100 to win $140) for the New York. If the house can get equal money laid on both sides they make a small profit by taking in $145 for every $140 that they pay out. The run line for this same game would be something like -145 for N.Y., and +140 for Boston. While Boston is favored to win the game outright, they are not favored to win the game by two or more runs. In this case, they are the underdog on the run line. Lets also say that the over under for this game is 10 runs. In nearly all cases the favorite on the money line is the dog on the run line unless they are huge favorites. The system is based on the fact that Boston will not win this game by exactly one run more than one in five times. I take $100 and bet it on Boston to win the game (money line), and $100 and bet it on N.Y. to either win the game, or lose by less than one run (run line). So I am betting $200 and will get back $240 if Boston does not win by exactly one run. As long as this happens less that one in five times I will collect $200 in profit before I lose both sides, and lose $200. I am looking for an average win of at least $40 in this case, so you shop sports books for lines like this. You also shop multiple sports books to find the best possible lines for each side. Because baseball is thinly bet, the lines are often different at different sports books. You identify the games you are interested in, and find the best lines to make your bets against. A lot of the time you will be able to do better than a $40 average win on a $200 in total bets if you shop around, but that is the minimum acceptable amount.
Before I started the using the system, I studied it against past games for several months to verify that it worked. What I found is that it works for American League games and was close to break even for National League games. Rockies home games were an exception to the rule for the National league. I also looked at the correlation between the over/under line, and the success of the system. I found that the higher the over/under on the games selected, the more successful and profitable the system is. All of this makes perfect sense. High scoring American League games are less likely to be decided by one run, while low scoring National league games, where they like to manufacture runs, are more likely to be one run affairs. So you can use the over/under line as a first screen to select American League games, and then make sure you can earn at least $40 on average based on a $200 successful bet. The higher the over/under, and the higher you can make on average per success helps to increase your profitability. In practice I like to use the system on about 5 games each day. That way you either made a nice chunk of change if everything works out, or you will break even if one of the five games is a one run game won by the favorite. The disaster scenario is losing two of the games, but I think that was so rare it only happened to me once or twice as long as I used it.
You will end up making huge bets with the system, and winning smaller amounts, but that is fine. You will be a high volume player, so you may be able to get rakeback or deposit bonuses at online sportsbooks while using the system. Back before the UIGEA when I was sports book bonus whoring it was not baseball season, so I was using football. This system would have cleared bonus requirements faster than you could blink, so there is some additional money to made there as well. Another great thing about this system, is it is purely analytic. You don't need to know anything about baseball to profit from it. Let me know if you have any questions or plan on trying it out.
I have been a pretty big sports better most of my life. Most of the time, I analyze the match-ups, and come to a solid decision on what side to bet based on my sports knowledge. I have also employed betting "systems" in the past. One of the betting systems that I used in the past was for baseball, and it worked really well. I have not used this system in about 15 years, but I see no reason why it would not continue to work. Since IMO the system continues to work, yet I have not chosen to use it in a long time I have no problem revealing it here in detail, for someone who wants to take advantage of it. The system is basically an arbitrage system that takes advantage of the fact that Baseball is thinly bet compared to other sports, and has a very low house edge. The edge from arbitrage can easily out way the house edge, and lead to long term profits for the user of the system. Once you have convinced yourself statistically that the system works, you can ramp up the amounts you are betting and make some significant money on it. When I was last using the system I was betting between 2k to 5k a day as an unemployed UNLV student.
Baseball Betting
There are three main ways to bet on baseball. There is the money line which is a bet on who will win the game. There is the over/under line on what the total combined score will be. There is also a line called the "Run Line" which is a line with the favorite -1/2 run (The favorite to win by 2 runs or more). The system exploits the information from the over/under to find arbitrage opportunities between the Run Line and the Money Line. Arbitrage is simply a way of exploiting inefficient markets. The baseball betting market is inefficient because it is thinly traded. An example of arbitrage would be buying goods in the United States, transporting them to Europe and reselling at higher European prices. If the market is inefficient allowing for price disparity between two markets, and the cost of transport is less than the price disparity, guaranteed profits can be made. Guaranteed profits can be made betting baseball using arbitrage.
The System
So lets take a hypothetical game like the Yankees vs. the Red Sox. Lets say that Beckett is pitching for Boston and Boston is the favorite. The money line might be -145 (bet $145 to win $100) for Boston, and +140 (bet $100 to win $140) for the New York. If the house can get equal money laid on both sides they make a small profit by taking in $145 for every $140 that they pay out. The run line for this same game would be something like -145 for N.Y., and +140 for Boston. While Boston is favored to win the game outright, they are not favored to win the game by two or more runs. In this case, they are the underdog on the run line. Lets also say that the over under for this game is 10 runs. In nearly all cases the favorite on the money line is the dog on the run line unless they are huge favorites. The system is based on the fact that Boston will not win this game by exactly one run more than one in five times. I take $100 and bet it on Boston to win the game (money line), and $100 and bet it on N.Y. to either win the game, or lose by less than one run (run line). So I am betting $200 and will get back $240 if Boston does not win by exactly one run. As long as this happens less that one in five times I will collect $200 in profit before I lose both sides, and lose $200. I am looking for an average win of at least $40 in this case, so you shop sports books for lines like this. You also shop multiple sports books to find the best possible lines for each side. Because baseball is thinly bet, the lines are often different at different sports books. You identify the games you are interested in, and find the best lines to make your bets against. A lot of the time you will be able to do better than a $40 average win on a $200 in total bets if you shop around, but that is the minimum acceptable amount.
Before I started the using the system, I studied it against past games for several months to verify that it worked. What I found is that it works for American League games and was close to break even for National League games. Rockies home games were an exception to the rule for the National league. I also looked at the correlation between the over/under line, and the success of the system. I found that the higher the over/under on the games selected, the more successful and profitable the system is. All of this makes perfect sense. High scoring American League games are less likely to be decided by one run, while low scoring National league games, where they like to manufacture runs, are more likely to be one run affairs. So you can use the over/under line as a first screen to select American League games, and then make sure you can earn at least $40 on average based on a $200 successful bet. The higher the over/under, and the higher you can make on average per success helps to increase your profitability. In practice I like to use the system on about 5 games each day. That way you either made a nice chunk of change if everything works out, or you will break even if one of the five games is a one run game won by the favorite. The disaster scenario is losing two of the games, but I think that was so rare it only happened to me once or twice as long as I used it.
You will end up making huge bets with the system, and winning smaller amounts, but that is fine. You will be a high volume player, so you may be able to get rakeback or deposit bonuses at online sportsbooks while using the system. Back before the UIGEA when I was sports book bonus whoring it was not baseball season, so I was using football. This system would have cleared bonus requirements faster than you could blink, so there is some additional money to made there as well. Another great thing about this system, is it is purely analytic. You don't need to know anything about baseball to profit from it. Let me know if you have any questions or plan on trying it out.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Vegas Trip Advice
Poker From The Rail
Planning your summer Vegas trip
by “Tuscaloosa” Johnny Kampis
Whether you are a Vegas virgin considering your first trip to Sin City or a grizzled WSOP veteran preparing for yet another six to seven-week slough at the Rio you should find some useful information in my guide to planning your trip to Vegas and the WSOP.
Below are some helpful hints that I hope will enable you to save time and/or money as you make your Vegas planning for June and July. This is the best year since I’ve been regularly traveling in the summer for the WSOP for vacation discounts in Vegas.
Keep checking back here at Full Tilt’s Poker from the Rail in the coming weeks in the run-up to the granddaddy of poker tournaments as I bring you a series of articles highlighting the ins and outs of summer in Vegas, from WSOP orientation, to the must see sights, and the other tournaments in town you may want to consider during your stay.
Flights
Step one is deciding on how to get there. For most of us that means airlines. Reports are that average airfares are down 10 to 20 percent from last summer, thanks to the slumping economy and dropping gas prices. A quick look through the various online travel sites proves that theory out as many cross country flights can be had on many summer days for as low as $200-$250 round trip to Vegas.
There are ways to save even more on airfare. First, go to Southwest.com and download its Ding program. This will allow you to view Southwest’s daily specials for the departure cities of your choosing. For example, from my home airport of Birmingham, Southwest’s roundtrip fares to Vegas generally run $250-$300 with fees included, but occasionally on Ding those same fares drop to around $200 for the same flights.
The other recommendation I have is to bookmark the site AirfareWatchdog.com. You can search a city and find some really good daily or weekly deals that pop up from time to time, or view the top 50 cheap fares on any given day. Sign up with your email and get daily alerts from the site. In recent months, users got wind of a ridiculous $14 fare on Jet Blue from New York to San Francisco so this site could be well worth your time.
Rooms
Never have I seen room rates in Vegas this cheap. It truly is a bonanza on lodging there this summer as rates are down 30 percent or more at many properties. I found a ridiculous deal through Orbitz in which I paid less than $300 to stay on three and four-star Harrah’s owned mid-Strip properties for 11 nights in June and July.
Here is that deal: You can use the promo code 4ODWR75 to get $75 off a four-night weekday stay (Sunday through Thursday or Monday through Friday). This is some collaboration between Orbitz and Office Depot. In addition, on Orbitz there is a separate promotion at Harrah’s properties that allows you to receive a fourth night free with a three-night stay. I booked the Flamingo June 22-June 26 for $57 and Bally’s June 29-July 3 for $88 using the combined promotions. I sandwiched the Imperial Palace in between with no weekend discount for $152 for three nights. Total: $297.
Deals like this can be found by scouring popular travel discussion forums. I found this deal while looking at the popular 2 + 2 poker forums. (The poster had used the Office Depot promo to book the El Cortez for $12 for four nights.) Try these sites to find deals that may pop up over the next couple of months: LasVegasAdvisor.com, CheapoVegas.com, FatWallet.com and SlickDeals.net.
Another thing to consider before booking your room is the hotel’s location and your transportation situation. If you plan to rent a car then location within a few miles of Rio and the Strip is fine. If you plan to taxi it, then staying any farther than mid-Strip can be cost prohibitive. If you stay at the Rio you are obviously set for travel to the WSOP. The same is true for the Gold Coast, which is next door, and the Palms, which is about a quarter mile west of the Rio on Flamingo.
Cheaper rates for rooms can be found Downtown, but other than the Golden Nugget most properties are of the two-star variety. Also, aside from the Nugget and Binion’s (both of which are running nice summer poker tournament series – more about that in a future article), there are no other good poker rooms Downtown so you will often be traveling to the Rio or the Strip for the juicy poker action. If you rent a car this isn’t much of an issue, but is a major consideration if you are not.
Transportation
You have several options for getting around: taxis, rental cars, buses and hoofing it (NOT recommended, unless in moderation). Let’s look at each in turn.
If you come into town with a fat roll then you can probably afford cabs around town. From much of the Strip to the Rio will cost you around $10-$12 one way. From Downtown to the Rio is about $15-$20. If you plan a lengthy stay the fares will certainly add up.
Alternatively, you can rent a car. Rates are rather reasonable in Las Vegas, as an economy car will only set you back about $25-$30 a day, and having a car will give you a ton of freedom in exploring all parts of the city and beyond. I highly recommend this option.
A third choice is taking the city buses. Fares on the Deuce, the double decker buses that run up and down the Strip and to Downtown are $3 for one ride. A daily pass is available for $7, as is a three-day pass for $15. You can also use these buses to ride from the Strip to the Rio. There are two major negatives to bus travel: one, you have to hoof it to the bus stops, which might be a fair hike, and two, travel by bus is very slow. It can take more than an hour to get from Downtown to the Rio by riding a bus to Caesars Palace, getting off and walking around the corner to the Flamingo stop to get on a second bus to the Rio, for example.
I should also note that there is a free shuttle bus that Harrah’s runs from its namesake Harrah’s casino on the Strip to the Rio and back, which is a viable and obviously very cheap option to travel between the Strip and the Rio. At Harrah’s you board the bus at the bottom of the parking garage and at the Rio you board just outside the buffet entrance, which is to the left from the front of the casino.
Lastly, we have hoofing it. Vegas in the summer is not a pleasant time to spend walking around in the sun as the thermostat pretty well stays above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the daytime and above 90 degrees at night. Granted, the lack of humidity makes conditions more comfortable than they would be at the same temperatures in my neck of the woods in Alabama, but you still feel like your ears and nose are baking in an oven. The distance from Caesars Palace to the Rio may look deceptively shorter than it is – it’s about a mile in reality. I’ve walked it a couple of times during the day and night and I wouldn’t recommend either. At day you bake as the sun shines off the sidewalk and asphalt and at night you worry you’re likely to get robbed as the walk is pretty isolated (because people have enough sense not to try it!) If you plan to do some casino hopping on foot pace yourself by frequently stopping into the highly air conditioned properties on the Strip and hydrate yourself often.
Planning your summer Vegas trip
by “Tuscaloosa” Johnny Kampis
Whether you are a Vegas virgin considering your first trip to Sin City or a grizzled WSOP veteran preparing for yet another six to seven-week slough at the Rio you should find some useful information in my guide to planning your trip to Vegas and the WSOP.
Below are some helpful hints that I hope will enable you to save time and/or money as you make your Vegas planning for June and July. This is the best year since I’ve been regularly traveling in the summer for the WSOP for vacation discounts in Vegas.
Keep checking back here at Full Tilt’s Poker from the Rail in the coming weeks in the run-up to the granddaddy of poker tournaments as I bring you a series of articles highlighting the ins and outs of summer in Vegas, from WSOP orientation, to the must see sights, and the other tournaments in town you may want to consider during your stay.
Flights
Step one is deciding on how to get there. For most of us that means airlines. Reports are that average airfares are down 10 to 20 percent from last summer, thanks to the slumping economy and dropping gas prices. A quick look through the various online travel sites proves that theory out as many cross country flights can be had on many summer days for as low as $200-$250 round trip to Vegas.
There are ways to save even more on airfare. First, go to Southwest.com and download its Ding program. This will allow you to view Southwest’s daily specials for the departure cities of your choosing. For example, from my home airport of Birmingham, Southwest’s roundtrip fares to Vegas generally run $250-$300 with fees included, but occasionally on Ding those same fares drop to around $200 for the same flights.
The other recommendation I have is to bookmark the site AirfareWatchdog.com. You can search a city and find some really good daily or weekly deals that pop up from time to time, or view the top 50 cheap fares on any given day. Sign up with your email and get daily alerts from the site. In recent months, users got wind of a ridiculous $14 fare on Jet Blue from New York to San Francisco so this site could be well worth your time.
Rooms
Never have I seen room rates in Vegas this cheap. It truly is a bonanza on lodging there this summer as rates are down 30 percent or more at many properties. I found a ridiculous deal through Orbitz in which I paid less than $300 to stay on three and four-star Harrah’s owned mid-Strip properties for 11 nights in June and July.
Here is that deal: You can use the promo code 4ODWR75 to get $75 off a four-night weekday stay (Sunday through Thursday or Monday through Friday). This is some collaboration between Orbitz and Office Depot. In addition, on Orbitz there is a separate promotion at Harrah’s properties that allows you to receive a fourth night free with a three-night stay. I booked the Flamingo June 22-June 26 for $57 and Bally’s June 29-July 3 for $88 using the combined promotions. I sandwiched the Imperial Palace in between with no weekend discount for $152 for three nights. Total: $297.
Deals like this can be found by scouring popular travel discussion forums. I found this deal while looking at the popular 2 + 2 poker forums. (The poster had used the Office Depot promo to book the El Cortez for $12 for four nights.) Try these sites to find deals that may pop up over the next couple of months: LasVegasAdvisor.com, CheapoVegas.com, FatWallet.com and SlickDeals.net.
Another thing to consider before booking your room is the hotel’s location and your transportation situation. If you plan to rent a car then location within a few miles of Rio and the Strip is fine. If you plan to taxi it, then staying any farther than mid-Strip can be cost prohibitive. If you stay at the Rio you are obviously set for travel to the WSOP. The same is true for the Gold Coast, which is next door, and the Palms, which is about a quarter mile west of the Rio on Flamingo.
Cheaper rates for rooms can be found Downtown, but other than the Golden Nugget most properties are of the two-star variety. Also, aside from the Nugget and Binion’s (both of which are running nice summer poker tournament series – more about that in a future article), there are no other good poker rooms Downtown so you will often be traveling to the Rio or the Strip for the juicy poker action. If you rent a car this isn’t much of an issue, but is a major consideration if you are not.
Transportation
You have several options for getting around: taxis, rental cars, buses and hoofing it (NOT recommended, unless in moderation). Let’s look at each in turn.
If you come into town with a fat roll then you can probably afford cabs around town. From much of the Strip to the Rio will cost you around $10-$12 one way. From Downtown to the Rio is about $15-$20. If you plan a lengthy stay the fares will certainly add up.
Alternatively, you can rent a car. Rates are rather reasonable in Las Vegas, as an economy car will only set you back about $25-$30 a day, and having a car will give you a ton of freedom in exploring all parts of the city and beyond. I highly recommend this option.
A third choice is taking the city buses. Fares on the Deuce, the double decker buses that run up and down the Strip and to Downtown are $3 for one ride. A daily pass is available for $7, as is a three-day pass for $15. You can also use these buses to ride from the Strip to the Rio. There are two major negatives to bus travel: one, you have to hoof it to the bus stops, which might be a fair hike, and two, travel by bus is very slow. It can take more than an hour to get from Downtown to the Rio by riding a bus to Caesars Palace, getting off and walking around the corner to the Flamingo stop to get on a second bus to the Rio, for example.
I should also note that there is a free shuttle bus that Harrah’s runs from its namesake Harrah’s casino on the Strip to the Rio and back, which is a viable and obviously very cheap option to travel between the Strip and the Rio. At Harrah’s you board the bus at the bottom of the parking garage and at the Rio you board just outside the buffet entrance, which is to the left from the front of the casino.
Lastly, we have hoofing it. Vegas in the summer is not a pleasant time to spend walking around in the sun as the thermostat pretty well stays above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the daytime and above 90 degrees at night. Granted, the lack of humidity makes conditions more comfortable than they would be at the same temperatures in my neck of the woods in Alabama, but you still feel like your ears and nose are baking in an oven. The distance from Caesars Palace to the Rio may look deceptively shorter than it is – it’s about a mile in reality. I’ve walked it a couple of times during the day and night and I wouldn’t recommend either. At day you bake as the sun shines off the sidewalk and asphalt and at night you worry you’re likely to get robbed as the walk is pretty isolated (because people have enough sense not to try it!) If you plan to do some casino hopping on foot pace yourself by frequently stopping into the highly air conditioned properties on the Strip and hydrate yourself often.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
MISSING 14 YR OLD IN COLORADO
Arapahoe County, Colorado, please read this post by Frank Frisna about his 14-year old missing niece.
April 15th, 2009
My 14yr old niece is missing...
I was really hoping I would never have to write this here...
My niece Jennifer has been missing since Saturday night. She left here at 3pm to go to a friend's house and was to be home by 8. None of her friends have talked to her since 7pm that night and there is no sign that she ran away. No clothes... no cell phone charger... nothing to suggest that she had any intention of being away that long. She has never been more than an hour or so late and this is beyond her character. There was no trouble here and she was in a good mood when she left.
It took us a few days to get the police to take this seriously since the responding officer on Saturday night had her pigeon holed as a runaway from the start. Thanks to that moron we have lost precious time. Now we have the Colorado Bureau of Investigations involved and they are trying to get phone records quicker than I seem to be able to get them. We would have had them already but CBI needed the Arapahoe County Sheriff to upgrade from runaway to missing. The next step is to get her picture on the local news stations.
I cannot describe the torment we are all going through. My worst nightmare has come true... The idea of seeing her picture on the news is something I don't think I could ever be prepared for. I am going to want to include a reward for any information leading to her safe return. If she is hiding out... it is going to be hard for some 14-15 yr old friend of hers to keep quiet should there be money involved. I have $500 that I can start it with… Thanks to my ongoing medical bills, it is every penny I have to my name right now. If anyone would like to donate the cause, please send via paypal to frankybones@comcast.net - (* should no reward be issued…. monies will be returned.) If I get some of this other cash I waiting on, it will be added.
I have never needed the help of our readers more than now. Please take her pictures and info posted here and send out to your social networks.
For those of you who know me... know these kids are my life. I am the legal guardian of both my niece and nephew. I consider them my children and have dedicated my life to their happiness. I have always been there to make sure they had a father figure and someone to count on. I am living pure hell and each day that passes is killing my soul. I have been through too much to be burdened with more heartache. This has gotta be resolved soon… I would give my life to bring her home.
One thing that is getting harder to do is handle all the phone calls from concerned friends and family…. The constant updates are wearing me down so I will be posting here any major updates we have. You can also follow my twitter account.
That’s all I have for right now...
Jennifer… if you are reading this… I love you more than you will ever know and you are my best friend in the world… nobody is mad at you... mom is here too.. come home...
- Frank Frisina
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
OverlayZone
Overlay Zone
Seems like a nice application, but I don't know anything about the code, the company or what this may put on your computer. Since I don't play that many tournaments, I don't think I will download this, but you never know.
Thanks to Smokkee for finding this one.
Seems like a nice application, but I don't know anything about the code, the company or what this may put on your computer. Since I don't play that many tournaments, I don't think I will download this, but you never know.
Thanks to Smokkee for finding this one.
Friday, March 20, 2009
my fan club
gmunkey: ****ing moron chaser
ml: tell him god
buddysbluff: god got a potty mouth
gmunkey: better than being an absolute ****ing moron , buddy
gmunkey: didn't feel like catching a miracle this time you re tard?
buddysbluff: u really r as stupid as u look
ml: too funny
gmunkey: dude, you have a ****ing dog on your icon
gmunkey: Actually, two. One gayer than the other.
buddysbluff: my *** dog looks better than u
ml: nh
Dealer: ml has a pair of Kings
Dealer: Game #26185705056: ml wins pot (1800) with a pair of Kings
gmunkey: of course
gmunkey: king ****ing 2
gmunkey: why the hell wouldn't you call with king 2
gmunkey: I don't know if you are actually dumber than buddy
ml: after the j 8 chase? are you serious
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: you called a raise with k 2
gmunkey: that is a terrible ****ing play
gmunkey: did you learn to play poker by jacking it to gay porn?
gmunkey: THere's better literature on strategy.
gmunkey: uh oh, ml folded his queen 3
ml: tell him god
buddysbluff: god got a potty mouth
gmunkey: better than being an absolute ****ing moron , buddy
gmunkey: didn't feel like catching a miracle this time you re tard?
buddysbluff: u really r as stupid as u look
ml: too funny
gmunkey: dude, you have a ****ing dog on your icon
gmunkey: Actually, two. One gayer than the other.
buddysbluff: my *** dog looks better than u
ml: nh
Dealer: ml has a pair of Kings
Dealer: Game #26185705056: ml wins pot (1800) with a pair of Kings
gmunkey: of course
gmunkey: king ****ing 2
gmunkey: why the hell wouldn't you call with king 2
gmunkey: I don't know if you are actually dumber than buddy
ml: after the j 8 chase? are you serious
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: you called a raise with k 2
gmunkey: that is a terrible ****ing play
gmunkey: did you learn to play poker by jacking it to gay porn?
gmunkey: THere's better literature on strategy.
gmunkey: uh oh, ml folded his queen 3
Monday, March 9, 2009
Token Tilt
So I tried a couple 4.40 sngs for a $26 token on FullTilt.
I should have guessed something was up after the first lost:
QQ lost to 10 8 offsuit with 3 left for the a zero
Mistakenly thought I just got unlucky and these things are easy, I just have to remember "that'll happen."
Next game, AA lost to 44 with, you guessed it, 3 left for a zero!!!
I started to get pissed, but "that'll happen," right?
Next game, hit a ten on the flop - 99s couldn't let go and runner runner straighted me.
After that it was a series of KK losing to A4 off when he didn't even hit the ace.
KJ losing to K2, Q 9 getting rivered by Q 8 etc.
I should have just bought into 4 or 5 $26 tourneys straight up, it would have been cheaper!!!!!!!
Either that or just quit this silly game.
I should have guessed something was up after the first lost:
QQ lost to 10 8 offsuit with 3 left for the a zero
Mistakenly thought I just got unlucky and these things are easy, I just have to remember "that'll happen."
Next game, AA lost to 44 with, you guessed it, 3 left for a zero!!!
I started to get pissed, but "that'll happen," right?
Next game, hit a ten on the flop - 99s couldn't let go and runner runner straighted me.
After that it was a series of KK losing to A4 off when he didn't even hit the ace.
KJ losing to K2, Q 9 getting rivered by Q 8 etc.
I should have just bought into 4 or 5 $26 tourneys straight up, it would have been cheaper!!!!!!!
Either that or just quit this silly game.
Friday, February 20, 2009
BBT 4
Oh dear god, I was thinking about it but the schedule is so brutual for an east coast working stiff.
Tournament: Brit Blogger Game
When: Sunday's at 16:00ET
Game: NLHE
Buyin: $5+.50
Password: donkament
Tournament: Blogger Big Game
When: March 1st, April 19th, May 31st
Game: Superstack NLHE
Buyin: $69+6 or token
Password: donkey
Tournament: PPI / Riverchasers Tournament
When: Monday's at 22:00ET
Game: Deepstack NLHE
Buyin: $24+2 or token
Password: riverchasers
Tournament: Blogger Skillz Game
When: Tuesday's at 21:30ET
Game: rotation of non-NLHE games
Buyin: $10+1
Password: skillz
Tournament: The Mookie
When: Wednesday's at 22:00ET
Game: Deepstack NLHE
Buyin: $10+1
Password: vegas1
Tournament: Brit Blogger Game
When: Sunday's at 16:00ET
Game: NLHE
Buyin: $5+.50
Password: donkament
Tournament: Blogger Big Game
When: March 1st, April 19th, May 31st
Game: Superstack NLHE
Buyin: $69+6 or token
Password: donkey
Tournament: PPI / Riverchasers Tournament
When: Monday's at 22:00ET
Game: Deepstack NLHE
Buyin: $24+2 or token
Password: riverchasers
Tournament: Blogger Skillz Game
When: Tuesday's at 21:30ET
Game: rotation of non-NLHE games
Buyin: $10+1
Password: skillz
Tournament: The Mookie
When: Wednesday's at 22:00ET
Game: Deepstack NLHE
Buyin: $10+1
Password: vegas1
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Update
College basketball is not really happening so I am going to take a break until March madness. Not from betting, just from posting my horrific picks. I would not want anyone else to suffer the same gut wrenching results I have over the last two weeks.
As for poker, last night was actually fun because I did well in a couple. Still ended my run with bad beats in all four:
Pokerstars - 120th out of 2448, lost AA to A6s.
Pokerstars - 42nd out of 2638, lost AKs to AJo.
Pokerstars - out of the money in the 3.30 rebuy (KK lost to some crap and ran into aces a lot)
FullTilt - 3rd out of 56, KJo lost to K2.
It is hard to have fun when you just keep losing these 70-30 or better when all the money is in. Losing those when it is only 20%-50% of your stack is bad enough, but constantly getting the snot kicked out of you when all the money is in is no fun. Sometimes I wonder why I still play since I don't really enjoy it that much anymore.
As for poker, last night was actually fun because I did well in a couple. Still ended my run with bad beats in all four:
Pokerstars - 120th out of 2448, lost AA to A6s.
Pokerstars - 42nd out of 2638, lost AKs to AJo.
Pokerstars - out of the money in the 3.30 rebuy (KK lost to some crap and ran into aces a lot)
FullTilt - 3rd out of 56, KJo lost to K2.
It is hard to have fun when you just keep losing these 70-30 or better when all the money is in. Losing those when it is only 20%-50% of your stack is bad enough, but constantly getting the snot kicked out of you when all the money is in is no fun. Sometimes I wonder why I still play since I don't really enjoy it that much anymore.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Wednesday pixs
Ball State +15
Ohio +2
Drake -3
James Madison +12
La Salle +2
East Carolina +5
Duke +2 (yeah, you read that right!)
These are all the ones with a delta of 3 or greater after factoring the ranking, spread and 3.53 pts for the home team. The new formula blends the rankings between point margins in previous games with outright wins or losses and the home advantage has been lowered from 4.00 to 3.53.
Ohio +2
Drake -3
James Madison +12
La Salle +2
East Carolina +5
Duke +2 (yeah, you read that right!)
These are all the ones with a delta of 3 or greater after factoring the ranking, spread and 3.53 pts for the home team. The new formula blends the rankings between point margins in previous games with outright wins or losses and the home advantage has been lowered from 4.00 to 3.53.
pre-game update
Screwed up in the Skillz tourney. It was fun, but I really messed up the final table with too much limping and folding the nuts on the flop because of possible draws. Oh well, maybe next week.
I went 3-2 on last nights ncaa b-ball and 8-8 overall. Thus for the season I am
11-7 but the parlay crap crushed my bankroll. I will do one more trial run tonight to see if the trends for the new system are positive or not.
I went 3-2 on last nights ncaa b-ball and 8-8 overall. Thus for the season I am
11-7 but the parlay crap crushed my bankroll. I will do one more trial run tonight to see if the trends for the new system are positive or not.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
New picks
They tried to break me Saturady. I have to admit, I did a lot of soul searching Sunday, but I have re-tweaked my formula and dropped the parlay bullcrap.
Tonight is test run for the new system to make sure I am back on track before I teach those crocks a serious lesson tomorrow.
In order of confidence:
Miami (ohio) -7.5: Central Michigan is too bad and being at home won't help
Hofstra +1.5: two evenly matched teams, but Hofstra is at home getting points
Florida State -10: FL state is too much better and at home
The next two technically didn't make the cut, but not that much else to look at tonight.
OK State +8.5: evenly matched teams but texas is giving up too many points
Florida +4.5: Florida is slightly better and getting points so home field adv won't help Kentucky
Also, I might play the blogger Skillz game tonight while I watch the games.
Tonight is test run for the new system to make sure I am back on track before I teach those crocks a serious lesson tomorrow.
In order of confidence:
Miami (ohio) -7.5: Central Michigan is too bad and being at home won't help
Hofstra +1.5: two evenly matched teams, but Hofstra is at home getting points
Florida State -10: FL state is too much better and at home
The next two technically didn't make the cut, but not that much else to look at tonight.
OK State +8.5: evenly matched teams but texas is giving up too many points
Florida +4.5: Florida is slightly better and getting points so home field adv won't help Kentucky
Also, I might play the blogger Skillz game tonight while I watch the games.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Basketball picks
Basketball here I come.
I am just trying it out, but I started with two pro and two college picks with a two team parlay for each.
2-0 in NCAA
0-2 in NBA
2 Team Parlay
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(731) Maryland +21½ Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(732) North Carolina
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Northern Iowa +2 Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(734) Bradley
Single
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Northern Iowa +2 Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(734) Bradley
Single
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(731) Maryland +21½ Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(732) North Carolina
Single
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(711) San Antonio Spurs +6 Tue@9:05p
Competitor:(712) Denver Nuggets
Single
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Milwaukee Bucks +4½ Tue@7:35p
Competitor:(708) New Jersey Nets
2 Team Parlay
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Milwaukee Bucks +4½ Tue@7:35p
Competitor:(708) New Jersey Nets
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(711) San Antonio Spurs +6 Tue@9:05p
Competitor:(712) Denver Nuggets
I am just trying it out, but I started with two pro and two college picks with a two team parlay for each.
2-0 in NCAA
0-2 in NBA
2 Team Parlay
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(731) Maryland +21½ Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(732) North Carolina
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Northern Iowa +2 Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(734) Bradley
Single
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Northern Iowa +2 Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(734) Bradley
Single
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(731) Maryland +21½ Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(732) North Carolina
Single
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(711) San Antonio Spurs +6 Tue@9:05p
Competitor:(712) Denver Nuggets
Single
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Milwaukee Bucks +4½ Tue@7:35p
Competitor:(708) New Jersey Nets
2 Team Parlay
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Milwaukee Bucks +4½ Tue@7:35p
Competitor:(708) New Jersey Nets
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(711) San Antonio Spurs +6 Tue@9:05p
Competitor:(712) Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
This weeks football bets
Six points is too much to give up when both of the pre-season wins by Pitt should not have happened. Yea, the Ravens are pretty tired and banged up, but Pitt is not that much better than the Ravens and the majority of scenarios have the Ravens covering in a close game.
Also, I don't like Philly that much, but I just don't trust the "new" Cardinals.
Balt +6
Philly -3.5
Also, I don't like Philly that much, but I just don't trust the "new" Cardinals.
Balt +6
Philly -3.5
Friday, January 9, 2009
Playoff pics
Alright, here are the lead pipe locks of the minute:
Balt +3 (D and D)
Ariz +9.5 (D and D)
Philly +4 (D)
SD +6 (D)
Balt +3 (D and D)
Ariz +9.5 (D and D)
Philly +4 (D)
SD +6 (D)
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
football update
Did well in the beginning for both, but got crushed in the pros at the end.
Pro: 14-18
College: 43-28-1
Still 7 more pro games to go and some college bowls, but I think I will just do the last 7 pro games.
Pro: 14-18
College: 43-28-1
Still 7 more pro games to go and some college bowls, but I think I will just do the last 7 pro games.
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