Skill vs. chance debate

A lot has been said and written about the skill vs chance debate when it comes to poker. Most will agree that some form of each exists within the game, but how should the game itself be classified – one of skill or one of chance.

For example, roulette, the “wheel,” craps, lottery and similar games are generally considered games of chance. On the other hand, games like chess, checkers, bridge, and similar games are generally considered games of skill.

Some people advocate that a game should be categorized as skill or chance based on what factor dominates. But dominates what? How much you win, whether you are a short term winner, whether you are a long term, or the result of each play?

In my view, a game should be characterized as one of chance if you cannot manipulate the outcome of the event. Take roulette, I view this as a game of chance in that no amount of skill can alter whether the outcome (what action gets paid) of the ball. In contrast, chess is a game of skill because the outcome of a game is influenced by the skill of the player (relative to his opponent).

But what about poker? Poker is a game of incomplete information. When a player chooses to play a hand, the outcome will be determined by the actions of the player and his opponents (will they call a raise, fold to a check raise etc.). Since it is a game of incomplete information, the action of a player’s opponents will be governed by the assumptions or guesses they make about the incomplete information (what does the player have for a hand). Thus, a player can manipulate the actions of an opponent (call a bet when the opponent will lose or fold to a bet when the opponent would have won) by manipulating the opponents perception or guess as to the incomplete information. By manipulating the actions of an opponent, a player is manipulating the outcome of the action/hand. The better a player is at manipulating their opponent’s perception of the incomplete information, the better a player will do in the long run, which is why playing poker is clearly a game of skill.