Bears +3 (lost)
KC +3 (lost)
Jax +12.5 (lost)
SHIT!
14-18 on the season for pro
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
I made another friend
jim7147 [observer] said, "great calls moron... your stupidity is overwhelming... what a complete idiot"
jim7147 [observer] said, "were you born stupid?????????????"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "got it, another idiot with a neg roi, and chasing over 400 in losses.. what a loser"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "talkk about morons.. your in control,, c cy loser.. so il literate, the best you can do is ty... your absolutely pathetic... chase your lossses stupid"
jim7147 [observer] said, "LOSER"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "were you born stupid?????????????"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "got it, another idiot with a neg roi, and chasing over 400 in losses.. what a loser"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "talkk about morons.. your in control,, c cy loser.. so il literate, the best you can do is ty... your absolutely pathetic... chase your lossses stupid"
jim7147 [observer] said, "LOSER"
microvillain said, "ty"
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Bowl game pixs
Here are the teams based on the "running dogs" idea (the better running team wins):
Navy +3 (lost)
Colo. St +4 (won)
Byu +3 (lost)
N dame +2.5 (won)
Fl Atl +6 (won)
Wis +6 (lost)
La Tech +3 (won)
W. Mich +2.5 (lost)
Oregon +3 (won)
Air force +3.5 (lost)
Nebraska +2.5 (won)
Ole miss +7 (won)
Tulsa +2.5 (won)
Memphis +14 (lost)
Pitt +3 (push)
Not completely sold on this approach but I will look into it more.
Navy +3 (lost)
Colo. St +4 (won)
Byu +3 (lost)
N dame +2.5 (won)
Fl Atl +6 (won)
Wis +6 (lost)
La Tech +3 (won)
W. Mich +2.5 (lost)
Oregon +3 (won)
Air force +3.5 (lost)
Nebraska +2.5 (won)
Ole miss +7 (won)
Tulsa +2.5 (won)
Memphis +14 (lost)
Pitt +3 (push)
Not completely sold on this approach but I will look into it more.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Monday, December 8, 2008
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Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Week 13 football Picks Update
college
M: 35
B: 22
Louisville +10 (lost)
Alabama +10 (lost)
Missouri +17.5 (lost)
Hawaii +7.5 (won)
NFL
M: 13
B: 11
San Fran +3.5 (won)
Sea +6.5(won)
TB +3 (lost)
M: 35
B: 22
Louisville +10 (lost)
Alabama +10 (lost)
Missouri +17.5 (lost)
Hawaii +7.5 (won)
NFL
M: 13
B: 11
San Fran +3.5 (won)
Sea +6.5(won)
TB +3 (lost)
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Week 12 update
Crappy weekend for my picks but no blood
College
Micro: 34
Book:19
NFL
Micro: 11
Book: 10
This week's lead pipe locks:
Oregon St. -3 (lost)
OK -7 (won)
FL -16.5 (won)
GA -8 (lost)
Cards +3 (lost)
Viks -3 (won)
Texans -3 (won)
College
Micro: 34
Book:19
NFL
Micro: 11
Book: 10
This week's lead pipe locks:
Oregon St. -3 (lost)
OK -7 (won)
FL -16.5 (won)
GA -8 (lost)
Cards +3 (lost)
Viks -3 (won)
Texans -3 (won)
Saturday, November 29, 2008
O8 and the lucky keep getting lucky
This summary is not available. Please
click here to view the post.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Week 12
College
Micro: 32
Book:17
NFL
Micro: 9
Book: 9
This week's lead pipe locks:
Oregon St. -3
OK -7
FL -16.5
GA -8
Cards +3
Viks -3
Texans -3
Micro: 32
Book:17
NFL
Micro: 9
Book: 9
This week's lead pipe locks:
Oregon St. -3
OK -7
FL -16.5
GA -8
Cards +3
Viks -3
Texans -3
Monday, November 24, 2008
Football Update
NFL College
Micro:9 Micro:32
Bookie:9 Bookie:17
Last weeks picks:
Steelers -11 (won)
Texans +3 (won)
Panthers +1 (lost)
Mich. +21 (lost)
Iowa St. +10 (won)
Oregon St. +3 (won)
Tx Tech. +7 (lost)
Micro:9 Micro:32
Bookie:9 Bookie:17
Last weeks picks:
Steelers -11 (won)
Texans +3 (won)
Panthers +1 (lost)
Mich. +21 (lost)
Iowa St. +10 (won)
Oregon St. +3 (won)
Tx Tech. +7 (lost)
Friday, November 21, 2008
Weekly pixs
So far:
NFL College
Micro:7 Micro:30
Bookie:8 Bookie:15
This weeks try:
Steelers -11 (won)
Texans +3
Panthers +1
Mich. +21
Iowa St. +10
Oregon St. +3
Tx Tech. +7
NFL College
Micro:7 Micro:30
Bookie:8 Bookie:15
This weeks try:
Steelers -11 (won)
Texans +3
Panthers +1
Mich. +21
Iowa St. +10
Oregon St. +3
Tx Tech. +7
Thursday, November 13, 2008
NFL betting background
How To Calculate NFL Point Spread Odds
While the NFL point spread is the most popular type of bet in the United States, most that bet this proposition are unfamiliar with how to calculate the point spread odds themselves, and this article aims to change that.
Because of the way football is scored, some point spreads are more important than others. As such, it is worth the time to read the article on Key NFL Point Spreads before continuing.
The Team's Winning Percentage is Everything
Before you can calculate point spread odds you must have an idea as to how often the teams playing in the game are going to win. This is the most crucial part to calculating fair point spread odds, as the actual margin of victory in a game is a chance event. The more often a team wins the game the more likely they are to win by a larger margin of victory. To calculate how often you can expect at team to win, checkout Smart Pro Football Handicapping.
Once you know a team's probability of winning a given game, you can then calculate the probability of the team covering a specific point spread.
To calculate these point spread odds you must know the conditional probability distribution for a team winning by a specific number of points given that we already know they have won the game. This distribution for the average NFL game is referred to as the overall margin of victory distribution and is shown below.
Overall Margin of Victory Distribution
For an average NFL game the winning team's margin of victory will follow the following probability distribution:
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 3.46% 0.00% 94.60% 3.46%
2 2.89% 3.46% 90.57% 6.85%
3 14.51% 6.85% 73.69% 22.29%
4 3.39% 22.29% 69.31% 26.45%
5 2.64% 26.45% 65.81% 29.82%
6 4.18% 29.82% 60.58% 34.89%
7 8.08% 34.89% 51.13% 44.19%
8 2.57% 44.19% 47.78% 47.54%
9 1.14% 47.54% 46.10% 49.21%
10 5.12% 49.21% 39.94% 55.43%
11 2.19% 55.43% 37.06% 58.36%
12 1.01% 58.36% 35.56% 59.90%
13 2.64% 59.90% 32.17% 63.38%
14 3.68% 63.38% 27.66% 68.05%
15 0.85% 68.05% 26.37% 69.39%
16 1.40% 69.39% 24.43% 71.43%
17 2.93% 71.43% 20.78% 75.29%
18 1.61% 75.29% 18.62% 77.59%
19 0.75% 77.59% 17.46% 78.83%
20 1.40% 78.83% 15.54% 80.90%
21 2.02% 80.90% 12.95% 83.74%
To account for a margin of error, the data in the table above are the lower limits of a one-sided 99% confidence interval based on actual results for NFL regular season games from the 1997-2006 seasons.
A Quick Word Regarding Blowouts
A common mistake NFL point spread bettors make is betting on the blowout.
Based on the data in the table above you can see that at least 27.66% of all NFL games will end with a margin of victory of 15 points or higher. It's easy to see why bettors bet for the blowout, as that's roughly 1 out of every 4 games!
Bettors hate to see their team get crushed, but like it or not, at least 12.95% of all games will have the winning team do so by 22 or more points (almost 1 out of every 8 games).
Don't let these probabilities affect you psychologically when looking over a given Sunday's results. Your bankroll will thank you for it.
The Home and Away Difference
Only a very small percentage of NFL games are played at a neutral site, so it is important to take into account the difference between winning at home and winning on the road when calculating point spread odds.
Home Margin of Victory Distribution
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 2.94% 0.00% 94.58% 2.94%
2 2.36% 2.94% 90.84% 5.90%
3 13.24% 5.90% 74.55% 20.27%
4 2.82% 20.27% 70.51% 24.03%
5 2.36% 24.03% 67.06% 27.29%
6 3.06% 27.29% 62.78% 31.37%
7 7.70% 31.37% 53.28% 40.62%
8 2.24% 40.62% 50.04% 43.81%
9 0.97% 43.81% 48.39% 45.45%
10 4.74% 45.45% 42.31% 51.56%
11 2.07% 51.56% 39.33% 54.59%
12 0.92% 54.59% 37.77% 56.18%
13 2.47% 56.18% 34.33% 59.72%
14 3.29% 59.72% 29.96% 64.25%
15 0.47% 64.25% 29.03% 65.23%
16 1.29% 65.23% 27.02% 67.34%
17 3.06% 67.34% 22.98% 71.64%
18 1.51% 71.64% 20.73% 74.05%
19 0.76% 74.05% 19.42% 75.48%
20 1.40% 75.48% 17.33% 77.76%
21 1.57% 77.76% 15.05% 80.28%
Away Margin of Victory Distribution
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 3.38% 0.00% 93.45% 3.38%
2 2.89% 3.38% 88.74% 7.05%
3 14.68% 7.05% 70.38% 23.19%
4 3.38% 23.19% 65.45% 27.80%
5 2.34% 27.80% 61.83% 31.23%
6 4.85% 31.23% 55.23% 37.60%
7 7.39% 37.60% 45.84% 46.88%
8 2.34% 46.88% 42.32% 50.42%
9 0.92% 50.42% 40.62% 52.15%
10 4.69% 52.15% 34.41% 58.53%
11 1.73% 58.53% 31.70% 61.35%
12 0.72% 61.35% 30.30% 62.81%
13 2.19% 62.81% 27.06% 66.24%
14 3.38% 66.24% 22.46% 71.17%
15 0.99% 71.17% 20.73% 73.06%
16 1.06% 73.06% 18.91% 75.06%
17 2.03% 75.06% 15.93% 78.37%
18 1.21% 78.37% 13.96% 80.60%
19 0.40% 80.60% 13.07% 81.61%
20 0.92% 81.61% 11.48% 83.45%
21 2.03% 83.45% 8.60% 86.86%
The important thing to remember about the difference between winning at home versus winning on the road is that teams that win at home are more likely to win by a larger margin than teams that win on the road.
With this key difference in mind, you've not got all the data you need to calculate point spread odds.
Calculating the Odds
With winning probabilities and margin of victory distributions in hand you can now calculate point spread odds.
Below are a couple of examples.
Example #1: You approximate the true winning percentage for a team playing at home to be 58%, and the listed point spread is home team -3 points. What are the fair odds for the home team covering -3 points and the away team covering +3 points?
Probability of home team covering -3 points:
Using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the home team wins they will do so by more than 3 points at least 74.55% of the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that the home team will win by more than 3 points. This result is then divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3 points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final probability of the home team covering -3 points is 46.84%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +113.
Probability of away team covering +3 points:
Again, using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the home team wins they will do so by less than 3 points at least 5.90% of the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that the home team will win by 2 points or less combined with the probability that the away team will win outright. This result is then divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3 points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final probability of the away team covering +3 points is 49.20%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +103.
It should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. The "left over" 3.96% (100% - 46.84% - 49.20% = 3.96%) is due to the margin of error. Because we're using historical data, we can't be 100% sure of the exact probabilities.
Example #2: You approximate the true winning percentage for a team playing on the road to be 75%, and the listed point spread is away team -4.5 points. What are the fair odds for the away team covering -4.5 points and the home team covering +4.5 points?
Probability of away team covering -4.5 points:
Using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the away team wins they will do so by more than 4 points at least 65.45% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the away team covering -4.5 points is 49.09%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +104.
Probability of home team covering +4.5 points:
Again, using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the away team wins they will do so by less than or equal to 4 points at least 27.80% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the home team covering +4.5 points is 45.85%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +118.
As with the first example, it should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. Again, the "left over" 5.06% (100% - 49.09% - 45.85% = 5.06%) is due to the margin of error.
Key NFL Point Spreads
Because of the way football games are scored, some point spreads are more important than others. These point spreads are commonly referred to as the key point spreads.
These key point spreads are: 3, 7, 10, and 6.
To understand why these point spreads are important, you must take a look at the NFL's margin of victory distribution:
The graphic above shows the relative frequencies for the specified margins of victory for regular season games during the 2002-2003 through 2006-2007 NFL seasons.
The numbers 3, 7, 10, and 6 are key because they make up 38% of all margins of victory in the NFL.
The number 3 is the most important as it has a relative frequency of 16.26%. The number 7 is next on the list with a relative frequency of 9.77%, which makes the number 3 a little over 1.5 times as important as the number 7. The number 10 has a 6.57% relative frequency, and the number 6 has a 5.79% relative frequency. This makes the number 3 about 2.5 times as important as the number 10 and 2.8 times as important as the number 6. As such, when you're looking to place a bet on a team to cover the point spread, always ensure you're getting the best number possible, especially if the point spread is one of the key numbers.
The Difference between Playing at Home and Away
When handicapping a game you will want to separate the home and away distributions, as some numbers are slightly more important for a visiting team than they are for a home team.
Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the home team wins:
When the home team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 15.45% for the number 3; 10.43% for the number 7; 6.78% for the number 10; and 4.89% for the number 6. Another thing to note about this distribution is that the number 14 is almost as important as the number 6, as it has a relative frequency of 4.61%. (This is a moot point, however, as you should rarely lay 14 points in the NFL; so rare, in fact, that it's best to never consider laying 14 points.)
For visiting teams, however, these key point spreads mean a little more than they do for teams playing at home.
Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the away team wins:
When the away team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 17.38% for the number 3; 8.87% for the number 7; 7.02% for the number 6; and 6.28% for the number 10. Based on this data, the number 6 is slightly more important than the number 10 when betting visiting teams.
It's also worth nothing that the number 4 is important as well, as it has a relative frequency of 5.36%. The number 14 is again almost as important when a relative frequency of 5.18%, but again, it's best to never consider laying 14 points, so it isn't worth taking into consideration when placing a bet.
Always Shop
Now that you know the relative importance of key point spreads in the NFL, it is imperative to always shop for the best number, regardless of the point spread. That said, getting a better number than one of the key point spreads will provide you with the most benefit.
While the NFL point spread is the most popular type of bet in the United States, most that bet this proposition are unfamiliar with how to calculate the point spread odds themselves, and this article aims to change that.
Because of the way football is scored, some point spreads are more important than others. As such, it is worth the time to read the article on Key NFL Point Spreads before continuing.
The Team's Winning Percentage is Everything
Before you can calculate point spread odds you must have an idea as to how often the teams playing in the game are going to win. This is the most crucial part to calculating fair point spread odds, as the actual margin of victory in a game is a chance event. The more often a team wins the game the more likely they are to win by a larger margin of victory. To calculate how often you can expect at team to win, checkout Smart Pro Football Handicapping.
Once you know a team's probability of winning a given game, you can then calculate the probability of the team covering a specific point spread.
To calculate these point spread odds you must know the conditional probability distribution for a team winning by a specific number of points given that we already know they have won the game. This distribution for the average NFL game is referred to as the overall margin of victory distribution and is shown below.
Overall Margin of Victory Distribution
For an average NFL game the winning team's margin of victory will follow the following probability distribution:
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 3.46% 0.00% 94.60% 3.46%
2 2.89% 3.46% 90.57% 6.85%
3 14.51% 6.85% 73.69% 22.29%
4 3.39% 22.29% 69.31% 26.45%
5 2.64% 26.45% 65.81% 29.82%
6 4.18% 29.82% 60.58% 34.89%
7 8.08% 34.89% 51.13% 44.19%
8 2.57% 44.19% 47.78% 47.54%
9 1.14% 47.54% 46.10% 49.21%
10 5.12% 49.21% 39.94% 55.43%
11 2.19% 55.43% 37.06% 58.36%
12 1.01% 58.36% 35.56% 59.90%
13 2.64% 59.90% 32.17% 63.38%
14 3.68% 63.38% 27.66% 68.05%
15 0.85% 68.05% 26.37% 69.39%
16 1.40% 69.39% 24.43% 71.43%
17 2.93% 71.43% 20.78% 75.29%
18 1.61% 75.29% 18.62% 77.59%
19 0.75% 77.59% 17.46% 78.83%
20 1.40% 78.83% 15.54% 80.90%
21 2.02% 80.90% 12.95% 83.74%
To account for a margin of error, the data in the table above are the lower limits of a one-sided 99% confidence interval based on actual results for NFL regular season games from the 1997-2006 seasons.
A Quick Word Regarding Blowouts
A common mistake NFL point spread bettors make is betting on the blowout.
Based on the data in the table above you can see that at least 27.66% of all NFL games will end with a margin of victory of 15 points or higher. It's easy to see why bettors bet for the blowout, as that's roughly 1 out of every 4 games!
Bettors hate to see their team get crushed, but like it or not, at least 12.95% of all games will have the winning team do so by 22 or more points (almost 1 out of every 8 games).
Don't let these probabilities affect you psychologically when looking over a given Sunday's results. Your bankroll will thank you for it.
The Home and Away Difference
Only a very small percentage of NFL games are played at a neutral site, so it is important to take into account the difference between winning at home and winning on the road when calculating point spread odds.
Home Margin of Victory Distribution
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 2.94% 0.00% 94.58% 2.94%
2 2.36% 2.94% 90.84% 5.90%
3 13.24% 5.90% 74.55% 20.27%
4 2.82% 20.27% 70.51% 24.03%
5 2.36% 24.03% 67.06% 27.29%
6 3.06% 27.29% 62.78% 31.37%
7 7.70% 31.37% 53.28% 40.62%
8 2.24% 40.62% 50.04% 43.81%
9 0.97% 43.81% 48.39% 45.45%
10 4.74% 45.45% 42.31% 51.56%
11 2.07% 51.56% 39.33% 54.59%
12 0.92% 54.59% 37.77% 56.18%
13 2.47% 56.18% 34.33% 59.72%
14 3.29% 59.72% 29.96% 64.25%
15 0.47% 64.25% 29.03% 65.23%
16 1.29% 65.23% 27.02% 67.34%
17 3.06% 67.34% 22.98% 71.64%
18 1.51% 71.64% 20.73% 74.05%
19 0.76% 74.05% 19.42% 75.48%
20 1.40% 75.48% 17.33% 77.76%
21 1.57% 77.76% 15.05% 80.28%
Away Margin of Victory Distribution
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 3.38% 0.00% 93.45% 3.38%
2 2.89% 3.38% 88.74% 7.05%
3 14.68% 7.05% 70.38% 23.19%
4 3.38% 23.19% 65.45% 27.80%
5 2.34% 27.80% 61.83% 31.23%
6 4.85% 31.23% 55.23% 37.60%
7 7.39% 37.60% 45.84% 46.88%
8 2.34% 46.88% 42.32% 50.42%
9 0.92% 50.42% 40.62% 52.15%
10 4.69% 52.15% 34.41% 58.53%
11 1.73% 58.53% 31.70% 61.35%
12 0.72% 61.35% 30.30% 62.81%
13 2.19% 62.81% 27.06% 66.24%
14 3.38% 66.24% 22.46% 71.17%
15 0.99% 71.17% 20.73% 73.06%
16 1.06% 73.06% 18.91% 75.06%
17 2.03% 75.06% 15.93% 78.37%
18 1.21% 78.37% 13.96% 80.60%
19 0.40% 80.60% 13.07% 81.61%
20 0.92% 81.61% 11.48% 83.45%
21 2.03% 83.45% 8.60% 86.86%
The important thing to remember about the difference between winning at home versus winning on the road is that teams that win at home are more likely to win by a larger margin than teams that win on the road.
With this key difference in mind, you've not got all the data you need to calculate point spread odds.
Calculating the Odds
With winning probabilities and margin of victory distributions in hand you can now calculate point spread odds.
Below are a couple of examples.
Example #1: You approximate the true winning percentage for a team playing at home to be 58%, and the listed point spread is home team -3 points. What are the fair odds for the home team covering -3 points and the away team covering +3 points?
Probability of home team covering -3 points:
Using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the home team wins they will do so by more than 3 points at least 74.55% of the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that the home team will win by more than 3 points. This result is then divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3 points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final probability of the home team covering -3 points is 46.84%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +113.
Probability of away team covering +3 points:
Again, using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the home team wins they will do so by less than 3 points at least 5.90% of the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that the home team will win by 2 points or less combined with the probability that the away team will win outright. This result is then divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3 points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final probability of the away team covering +3 points is 49.20%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +103.
It should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. The "left over" 3.96% (100% - 46.84% - 49.20% = 3.96%) is due to the margin of error. Because we're using historical data, we can't be 100% sure of the exact probabilities.
Example #2: You approximate the true winning percentage for a team playing on the road to be 75%, and the listed point spread is away team -4.5 points. What are the fair odds for the away team covering -4.5 points and the home team covering +4.5 points?
Probability of away team covering -4.5 points:
Using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the away team wins they will do so by more than 4 points at least 65.45% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the away team covering -4.5 points is 49.09%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +104.
Probability of home team covering +4.5 points:
Again, using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the away team wins they will do so by less than or equal to 4 points at least 27.80% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the home team covering +4.5 points is 45.85%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +118.
As with the first example, it should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. Again, the "left over" 5.06% (100% - 49.09% - 45.85% = 5.06%) is due to the margin of error.
Key NFL Point Spreads
Because of the way football games are scored, some point spreads are more important than others. These point spreads are commonly referred to as the key point spreads.
These key point spreads are: 3, 7, 10, and 6.
To understand why these point spreads are important, you must take a look at the NFL's margin of victory distribution:
The graphic above shows the relative frequencies for the specified margins of victory for regular season games during the 2002-2003 through 2006-2007 NFL seasons.
The numbers 3, 7, 10, and 6 are key because they make up 38% of all margins of victory in the NFL.
The number 3 is the most important as it has a relative frequency of 16.26%. The number 7 is next on the list with a relative frequency of 9.77%, which makes the number 3 a little over 1.5 times as important as the number 7. The number 10 has a 6.57% relative frequency, and the number 6 has a 5.79% relative frequency. This makes the number 3 about 2.5 times as important as the number 10 and 2.8 times as important as the number 6. As such, when you're looking to place a bet on a team to cover the point spread, always ensure you're getting the best number possible, especially if the point spread is one of the key numbers.
The Difference between Playing at Home and Away
When handicapping a game you will want to separate the home and away distributions, as some numbers are slightly more important for a visiting team than they are for a home team.
Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the home team wins:
When the home team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 15.45% for the number 3; 10.43% for the number 7; 6.78% for the number 10; and 4.89% for the number 6. Another thing to note about this distribution is that the number 14 is almost as important as the number 6, as it has a relative frequency of 4.61%. (This is a moot point, however, as you should rarely lay 14 points in the NFL; so rare, in fact, that it's best to never consider laying 14 points.)
For visiting teams, however, these key point spreads mean a little more than they do for teams playing at home.
Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the away team wins:
When the away team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 17.38% for the number 3; 8.87% for the number 7; 7.02% for the number 6; and 6.28% for the number 10. Based on this data, the number 6 is slightly more important than the number 10 when betting visiting teams.
It's also worth nothing that the number 4 is important as well, as it has a relative frequency of 5.36%. The number 14 is again almost as important when a relative frequency of 5.18%, but again, it's best to never consider laying 14 points, so it isn't worth taking into consideration when placing a bet.
Always Shop
Now that you know the relative importance of key point spreads in the NFL, it is imperative to always shop for the best number, regardless of the point spread. That said, getting a better number than one of the key point spreads will provide you with the most benefit.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
NLHE cash game disaster
Lost a buy in in the tourney -- never got any cards or favorable plays/situations
-2.5 buyins for cash:
(1) Cooler - in straddle for 6 with QJ offsuit. Loose late position raiser to 12, i call along with 2 others. Flop is 3 7 J. I bet 25 and get called by lpr. Turn is J. I check and lpr checks. River is a 9 - I bet 10 and he raises to 35, I call. lpr shows A J for better kicker.
(2) 1st 4 outer - Call a pfr to 12 with pocket 3s from bb. Flop is A 3 4 rainbow. I check and other three check. Turn is a 10. I bet 10 and get 3 callers. River is a 2 - I check and tight player (ace monkey) bets 25, I call and get beat by 9 5.
(3) 3 outer - call pfr to 12 with K 7 (loose passive table) from button. Flop is K 2 7. Loose bad player bets 25, I call in position. Turn is something stupid. He checks and I bet 45, he calls. River is an 8 and he bets 75, I call and he flips over the K 8.
(4) 2 outer - tight player (ace monkey) bets 18 which usually means he has a medium pair, after two other callers I call from the blind with 7 4 suited. Flop comes A 4 4. I check he bets 25 everyone folds to me and I call. Turn is a 6. I check and he checks (he usually doesn't check an ace here). River is an Ace, I check and he bets 35 and I call hoping for a medium pair but he has the A J.
(5) 2nd 4 outer - I am on the button with K 10 offsuit and raise it up pretty good, but get three callers. Flop comes K 10 x. Early bettor for 15 (about 35% of the pot). I make it 45 and he shoves his last 90 some in the pot. I call - he flips over the A Q and spikes a J on the river.
I hate this crap sometimes and it is too hard to console my self with "you made the right decisions blah blah blah blah."
-2.5 buyins for cash:
(1) Cooler - in straddle for 6 with QJ offsuit. Loose late position raiser to 12, i call along with 2 others. Flop is 3 7 J. I bet 25 and get called by lpr. Turn is J. I check and lpr checks. River is a 9 - I bet 10 and he raises to 35, I call. lpr shows A J for better kicker.
(2) 1st 4 outer - Call a pfr to 12 with pocket 3s from bb. Flop is A 3 4 rainbow. I check and other three check. Turn is a 10. I bet 10 and get 3 callers. River is a 2 - I check and tight player (ace monkey) bets 25, I call and get beat by 9 5.
(3) 3 outer - call pfr to 12 with K 7 (loose passive table) from button. Flop is K 2 7. Loose bad player bets 25, I call in position. Turn is something stupid. He checks and I bet 45, he calls. River is an 8 and he bets 75, I call and he flips over the K 8.
(4) 2 outer - tight player (ace monkey) bets 18 which usually means he has a medium pair, after two other callers I call from the blind with 7 4 suited. Flop comes A 4 4. I check he bets 25 everyone folds to me and I call. Turn is a 6. I check and he checks (he usually doesn't check an ace here). River is an Ace, I check and he bets 35 and I call hoping for a medium pair but he has the A J.
(5) 2nd 4 outer - I am on the button with K 10 offsuit and raise it up pretty good, but get three callers. Flop comes K 10 x. Early bettor for 15 (about 35% of the pot). I make it 45 and he shoves his last 90 some in the pot. I call - he flips over the A Q and spikes a J on the river.
I hate this crap sometimes and it is too hard to console my self with "you made the right decisions blah blah blah blah."
Friday, October 17, 2008
PLO Strategy Guide
Pot-Limit Omaha
By PokerListings.com
Pot-Limit Omaha, Cash Game
• Introduction
• Key Advice and Common Mistakes
• Pre-Flop Play
• Starting Hands
• Flop Play
• The Turn
• The River
• Pot Odds
Introduction
Pot-Limit Omaha is one of the most popular cash games played in casinos across Europe today. It has made significant headway in tournament games and, in fact, bigger tournaments host Pot-Limit Omaha events a couple of times throughout the year. Omaha is one of the fastest-growing types of poker today and is played far more in Europe than in the United States.
Pot-Limit Omaha is a very strategic game, involving a great deal of skill and discipline. It requires players to keep many concepts in mind simultaneously. This article aims to help beginner and intermediate players improve their Pot-Limit Omaha game by playing in a solid, tight-aggressive style. It advocates balancing bluffs and semi-bluffs with (mostly) solid play, and focuses on pre-flop and flop play since these are the most important betting rounds. The game rapidly becomes complex and more challenging to analyze when you reach the turn and river. However, if you play correctly pre-flop and on the flop, you will face fewer difficult situations on the turn and river.
As in all forms of poker there are exceptions to the rules; thus, the concepts laid out in this article should be understood as general guidelines. In order to be a truly successful player, it is imperative that you be able to use your judgment when determining the best possible play. It is virtually impossible to provide clear-cut advice applicable to all situations.
Key Skills to Becoming a Good Pot-Limit Omaha Player
• Strict hand selection (patience/discipline)
• Good table selection (very important in all poker games)
• Discipline (the ability to wait for a good hand and not chase with second best hands)
• Ability to read your opponents
• Courage to bet/raise (to be aggressive with draws or perceived best hands)
• Lack of vulnerability to going on tilt
A Comparison: Pot-Limit Omaha vs. Texas Hold'em
1. More players will see the flop in Omaha. The advantage of good starting hands over bad ones is not as great in Omaha. This encourages people to see more flops in Omaha than in Hold'em. It also creates bigger pots, making your decisions on the flop even more crucial.
2. You need a stronger hand to win at Omaha. The hands that typically win the pot in Hold'em, such as top pair with top kicker and overpairs, do not win it very often in Pot-Limit Omaha. In Omaha, the best hands are those that are made and hold additional value, like top set with a big draw. When the money goes into the middle in Pot-Limit Omaha someone is usually holding the nuts.
3. Omaha is a more hand-driven game. There are not as many opportunities to bluff in Omaha. This is due to the fact that there are more players seeing the flop and more combinations of hands to be made. When a pair is on the board someone is likely holding a full house, when a flush or straight is possible someone is likely to hold it, and so forth.
4. Giving free cards is generally a bad play in Omaha. First of all, because the pots are usually bigger on the flop, it makes more sense to try and win the pot right there. Second, your hands are much more likely to get action because of the greater drawing possibilities. Finally, it is very probable that a free card could beat your hand.
5. Although position is very important in all forms of poker, it is less important in Omaha. More players are in on the flop and it is hard to pick up a pot by betting when checked-to in late position. As a result, it is usually the player holding the best hand that wins the pot.
6. Tight players are less likely to be "bullied" in Omaha. In Hold'em, tight players can easily be bullied out of pots when the flop comes with low cards. However, in Omaha, because a tight player can play hands such as 8-7-6-5, J-J-5-4 or 8-8-7-7 with little difficulty, it is harder to push him around. The pondering bully can never be positive that you do not hold the nuts on a flop like 7-6-3, while, in Hold'em, he would be almost certain that you do not.
Pot-Limit
In Pot-Limit Omaha, you want to protect your hands by making pot-sized bets and raises until you are a big favorite, at which point you put all your money in the middle. You want to have the best possible hand and/or draw when all the money goes in. In Pot-Limit, the pots increase quickly and you must be able to determine the amount you can bet on the turn, if you expect to get called on the flop.
Generally, there is no reason to bet or raise less than the size of the pot when playing Pot-Limit Omaha. You might do this on specific occasions, like when betting into an opponent with the second-nut flush on the river and the pot is very big, or if you want a call on the river and you bet the amount you think your opponent will call. However, while it is entirely dependent on the player and the situation, most of the time it is best to bet and raise the size of the pot.
Key Advice and Common Mistakes
Key advice for Pot-Limit Omaha
1. Be very selective with your starting hands: nothing is more important than choosing the correct starting hand for a certain situation.
2. Table selection: only play in games where you have an edge. You want at least a couple of weak players at the table when you sit down.
3. "Play the players": be sure to quickly assess the opposition: who plays inferior hands, who folds at aggression, who bets with draws, who calls big bets with weak hands and draws, who can be bluffed, who bluffs, etc.
4. "Pump it or dump it": fold or bet/raise (if the odds are with you). You should avoid calling unless you have a good reason (such as trapping an opponent or increasing your pot odds when you are on a big draw).
5. Respect most big bets and raises: this is particularly true in Pot-Limit Omaha since most players do not bluff.
6. Do not get "married" to the nut flush draw: the difference between drawing to the nut flush in Omaha as compared to Hold'em is that in Hold'em you can usually win the pot by pairing your ace or win the pot with a flush even though the board pairs. The same is not true in Omaha.
7. Do not get "married" to an eight-way straight draw: in Omaha, it is possible to flop 13-way, 17-way and 20-way straight draws. It is best to wait until you hold one of these draws before you heavily involve yourself in the pot.
8. Do not overplay unsuited aces: when all you hold are a pair of aces and two unsuited, unconnected rags, there is little you can flop to improve your hand. If you do not flop an ace, you will usually end up with a weak holding.
9. Bet your best drawing hands: enhance the deception in your game by betting your strong draws, as you will also win more pots without a fight.
10. Always draw to the nuts in multi-way pots: when all the money goes into the middle in multi-way pots, be sure to draw to the nuts. Avoid committing all your money with draws without additional value as you can find yourself trapped between a set and the nut flush draw, which may leave you with only a nut straight draw that might end up in a split pot if you hit.
Common mistakes in Pot-Limit Omaha
1. Not releasing a decent hand when beat, thus losing the whole stack on one hand.
2. Overvaluing the hand (common mistake by Hold'em players).
3. Calling with weak holdings when facing a bet.
4. Playing too many starting hands.
5. Not raising pre-flop with premium hands (putting pressure on limpers holding drawing hands) and then going too far with them after the flop.
6. Giving free cards or underbetting the pot (risking a lot to win small/not protecting your hand).
Pre-Flop Play
General pre-flop advice
The most important skill to master when playing Pot-Limit Omaha is knowing which starting hands are profitable to play. However, there are no guides capable of covering every possible situation, so it is advised that you follow certain standard guidelines. Essentially, the hand you choose to play is dependent on the following factors:
1. Is the table tight or loose?
2. How many players are sitting at the table?
3. How many players are in the pot when it is your turn to act?
4. Has the pot been raised? If so, from what player and position?
5. What is your position?
1. If the table is tight you should strongly consider moving to a different game, though there are ways to make money at tight tables as well. In general, you have to play more aggressively than usual. This translates into much more pre-flop raising and bluffing. Your advantage at this type of table is that you will know how your opponents play but you will be playing more hands and playing them aggressively, which will make your plays harder to read.
2. Generally, you must play tighter at a full table and looser at a short-handed table.
3. If many players are in the pot when it is your turn to act, you will possess more information, which will allow you to play more hands. In addition, your drawing hands will get a better price and there is less of a likelihood that you will be able to limit the field by raising.
4. If the pot has been raised, you will have to play hands that you think are not dominated by the raiser. In these situations you should be very selective of which hands you play.
5. Your position will greatly affect the hands you play. In general, you have to play tighter from an early position and then add hands as your position improves.
Starting Hands
The starting hand is just as important in Omaha as in all other forms of poker. What you are looking for is four cards that work together, although many beginners (who are used to playing Texas Hold'em) do not realize this. They will play any four cards that contain one or two good Hold'em hands. For example, they often overrate hands like J -J -2 -7 , thinking that it is as good as a pair of jacks is in Hold'em. They also misinterpret hands, such as A -Q -8 -8 , because they include two decent Hold'em hands. However, in this type of hand there are poorly coordinated combinations, like A-8 and Q-8. For example, compare the aforementioned hands to As-K -A -K , which is the strongest starting hand in Omaha. In this hand, you hold AA, KK and two different combinations of AKs. All possible combinations are very strong hands in Texas Hold'em as well.
Other examples of hands that have four cards working together are hands like Q -J -T -9 , K -K -Q -J , Q -Q -J -T , J -J -T -T , As-A -3 -4 , As-A -K -Q , As-A -J -T (the second-strongest starting hand), 8 -7 -6 -5 , and so forth.
Thus, you want starting hands that hold both straight, flush and set potential. For instance, imagine the power of holding the As-A -J -T on a flop of A -K -Q , giving you top set, the nut straight and the nut flush draw. Notice that the J will also give you a royal flush. Another example is if you hold the Q -Q -K -T on a flop of Q -J -7 , giving you top set, a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw.
Hand ranking
Below are the top 30 starting hands in Pot-Limit Omaha.
1 A-A-K-K double-suited
2 A-A-J-T double-suited
3 A-A-Q-Q double-suited
4 A-A-J-J double-suited
5 A-A-T-T double-suited
6 A-A-9-9 double-suited
7 A-A-x-x double-suited
8 J-T-9-8 double-suited
9 K-K-Q-Q double-suited
10 K-K-J-J double-suited
11 K-Q-J-T double-suited
12 K-K-T-T double-suited
13 K-K-A-Q double-suited
14 K-K-A-J double-suited
15 K-K-A-T double-suited
16 K-K-Q-J double-suited
17 K-K-Q-T double-suited
18 K-K-J-T double-suited
19 Q-Q-J-J double-suited
20 Q-Q-T-T double-suited
21 Q-Q-A-K double-suited
22 Q-Q-A-J double-suited
23 Q-Q-A-T double-suited
24 Q-Q-K-J double-suited
25 Q-Q-K-T double-suited
26 Q-Q-J-T double-suited
27 Q-Q-J-9 double-suited
28 Q-Q-9-9 double-suited
29 J-J-T-T double-suited
30 J-J-T-9 double-suited
Whether double-suited, suited or non-suited, these are all very strong starting hands in Pot-Limit Omaha.
The trap hands
Trap hands are hands that seem very good but can easily make you a second-best hand. These are the types of hands that can cause you to lose your whole stack. There are three types of trap hands in Pot-Limit Omaha:
1. The Small Pair Hands
2. The Low Wrap Hands
3. The Small Flush Hands
1. Hands with pairs below nines are dangerous to play. When you flop a set it is very hard to escape the hand and, if you are up against a bigger set, you are drawing to one out. When you hold a hand like 6 -6 -5 -4 and the flop comes Q -J -6 , you may find yourself in big trouble. The moment to play small pairs is when you do not have a lot of money in front of you, at this stage it is not as bad to commit your whole stack if you flop a small set. Or, for example, when you have something like A-A-2-2 or K-K-3-3, then you should play in the hopes of flopping the big set. However, you must always think twice before you commit a lot of money with bottom set on the flop.
2. The types of hands that are very deceptive and dangerous to play are the lower four connected hands, like 5 -4 -3 -2 . These hands are dangerous because it is too simple to flop or draw to the low-end of a straight. When the flop comes 8-7-6 with this type of hand, you can easily find yourself up against a bigger straight, drawing dead.
3. Hands that can only make small flushes are risky hands. For example, let us again look at the 5 -4 -3 -2 on a flop of K -J -8 . This will give you a small flush. You cannot commit a lot of money with this hand and, if you were to get any action at all, you would most likely be beaten.
Limping or raising before the flop
In Pot-Limit Omaha, no matter what you hold, your opponent's hand will almost always have a decent chance of beating your hand. For example, being dealt an A-A-K-K double-suited is 50,000:1 (against) and that hand is just a 3:2 favorite to win against 8-7-6-5 double-suited. As such, the question arises of whether or not you should raise when you hold a good starting hand.
What about only raising when you hold aces? The problem with this strategy is that you become too predictable, as people will know exactly where you are and will not likely make mistakes against you.
How about always limping in? This is better than just raising with aces though it is still not an optimal strategy. Whenever you bet, raise or call on the flop, your opponents will also have a good idea of what type of hand you hold. If you never raise pre-flop, you do not make other limping players pay enough to see the flop for those times when you hold a strong starting hand. Also, you will not be picking up as many pots as when you play with a raising strategy.
By raising with a variety of hands pre-flop, you will gain numerous advantages: you become unpredictable, you pick up more pots, you make opponents pay when you are likely to have the best hand and you obtain more bluffing opportunities. Another advantage is that it is more fun to play according to this strategy. In light of all this, it becomes clear that a strategy combining both raising and limping with a variety of hands is the best.
Which hands to raise with
A good pre-flop raising strategy is to raise with any of the top 30 hands mentioned above, all of which hold at least one suit and most that don't, though this is not entirely sufficient and you will need to raise with more hands. Add any four cards in a row that are double-suited with cards, six or higher, and all single- and double-suited A-K-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher. Hands like Q-J-9-8 or J-T-9-7 double-suited are also good to raise with.
Summary:
1. All top 30 hands with at least one suit and most of the time when off-suit.
2. All suited A-K-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher.
3. All double-suited four in a row of hands, five or higher.
4. All double-suited connected hands, five or higher, with a maximum of one gap between the top two and the two low cards or between the low card and the three high cards. An example is K-Q-T-9 double-suited and J-9-8-6 double-suited.
5. All K-K-x-x double-suited.
Which hands to limp with
1. All A-Q-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher, and the ace being suited.
2. All four in a row combinations, four or higher.
3. All A-x-x-x anything with at least two x-cards that are connected and the ace being suited.
4. All four-in-a-row combinations, five or higher, with a maximum of one gap that is not between the top and bottom three cards in the hand.
Flop Play
General flop advice
Whether or not you were the pre-flop raiser makes a big difference in the way you play your hand. If you were the pre-flop raiser and the pot is short-handed, strongly consider betting-out even though your hand did not improve. However, you should always consider what type of flop hit. For example, if it is three-handed and you raised with two bare aces and the flop comes Q-J-T with a flush draw that you do not hold in your hand, it's a good opportunity to check and let the other two players fight for the money. But, if the flop is Q-7-3 with no flush draw, you should bet-out. This adds an element of deception to your play and enables you to pick up more pots. In addition, you will get more action when you do hit a great hand on the flop, since betting-out does not necessarily mean you hold anything substantial. Basically, you should never slow-play any hand when you hit your hand hard on the flop, especially because giving free cards in Omaha comes with a much higher risk than it does in Hold'em.
Two pair
Two pair is a difficult hand to play in Omaha. This is because it is a strong hand but not strong enough that you feel completely comfortable committing all your money with it. In general, you must have at least top two pair to give action on the flop. There are too many ways you can be beaten or will end up outdrawn if you commit a lot of money with top and bottom two pair or bottom two pair. If there are straight and/or flush draws on the board and you are called, use your judgment when deciding whether to bet again on the turn. Always consider the type of opponent you are up against. If you think your opponent will continue to draw, you should bet in an effort to shut him out. In Omaha, when someone just calls on the flop that player is generally on a draw, though in some cases they hold bottom set or a weak two pair that they do not want to release on the flop. Bottom two pair and top and bottom two pair are not worth playing on the flop, essentially. It is better to have a big draw to the nuts than to hold this type of hand. The most dangerous aspect of these hands is that you can trap yourself for all your money. This usually happens when you hit a full house on the turn and that same card gives someone else a bigger full house.
Sets
If you follow the playing style recommended in this article and avoid playing small pairs, you should not find yourself in many situations where you are up against a bigger set. If you were the pre-flop raiser, almost always bet-out on the flop if you hit a set. It is seldom wrong to bet-out with top set in a short-handed pot, even though the board looks scary. Remember that anytime you flop a set, you have about a 34% chance of improving to a full house on the turn and river combined. For example, if you pre-flop raised holding K-K-7-6 double-suited and the flop comes K-J-9 with a flush draw that you do not have, bet-out and be prepared to get action. The other players will have to hold a Q-T-x-x with the flush draw in order to feel comfortable moving in against you.
Some players only raise with aces and, if one of these players raised pre-flop and an ace flops, you can put them on top set right away. This is especially true if they limped in from an early position and then re-raised the pot after it had been raised behind them. These players will almost always be holding aces.
Straight draws
In Omaha you will flop many kinds of straight draws. What you want to flop are so-called wraparound straight draws. This happens when the flop comes with two cards that connect and you have cards that surround these two cards. Let us look at a few examples:
1. Hand: Q-J-8-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 17 (wraparound)
2. Hand: J-8-7-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 17 (wraparound)
3. Hand: K-Q-J-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 13
4. Hand: 8-7-6-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 13
5. Hand Q-J-8-7 Flop: T-9-x Outs: 20 (double wraparound)
It is better to have more overcards than undercards because you will be drawing to a bigger straight. This is why Hand 1 is stronger than Hand 2 and Hand 3 is stronger than Hand 4. Situations will arise when Hand 1 and Hand 2 move all-in on the flop. In this case, Hand 2's strength will diminish considerably, leaving it in bad shape.
You should bet the majority of your big draws on the flop. You do this for two reasons: because you can win the pot immediately (semi-bluff) and because it adds deception to your game. If you play in this manner, your opponents will not know whether you are betting a made hand or a draw.
If you flop a 13-way straight draw to the nuts without any possible flush draws, you are going to get involved in the pot. With 13 nut outs, you have an approximate 29% chance of hitting the nuts on the turn and a 50% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined. Therefore, if an opponent bets the size of the pot, you should call or raise depending on the situation and the player.
The Turn
The turn is generally a time for making big decisions. Should you bet again? Should you re-raise the maximum? Should you fold or call? This depends on many factors (too many to address here), though there are some general guidelines that can be followed. If you hold the nuts, you bet on the flop, and if you still hold the nuts on the turn, you usually should bet the maximum again. Your opponent is likely to be drawing and you want to shut her out or charge her the maximum for attempting to out-draw you. If you hold a minimum of 13 outs to beat whatever your opponent might be holding, it is appropriate to call a pot-sized bet on the turn, though only if both you and your opponent have money left on the river. With 13 outs, you are slightly less than 2:1 (13/44=29.5%) against improving and those are the exact odds the pot is laying you in this case. Because of the implied odds when there is more money left to win, a call is correct.
The River
If you hold the nuts, contemplate what your opponent might possibly hold and try to squeeze out the maximum. If you missed your draw, you must either give up or try a big bluff in case a scare card hits. A lot of judgment is needed when the pot is big and you hold a good hand but not the nuts. You must consider what your opponent is capable of. Will he try to run a bluff if checked to? Or will he also check? Do you dare to value bet with a good hand that is not the nuts?
Bluffing
Bluffing plays an important role in all forms of poker. In Omaha, bluffing is invoked less frequently than in Hold'em but it remains an important skill to master. It is best to bluff when you hold one or more of the key cards in the hand, for example, when you hold the bare ace and there is a possible flush on the board. When deciding whether or not to bluff, always consider the following factors:
1. Type of opponent: do not bluff weak opponents who call with anything (referred to as "calling stations"). This is the most common mistake. Be sure that your opponent is a good enough player to fold a hand.
2. Number of opponents: in general, do not bluff a field of three or more players. A bluff is much more likely to succeed against one opponent, not only because it is just one player but also because the pot is usually smaller, which makes it less desirable.
3. Your table image: a bluff is less likely to succeed if you have a loose table image as opposed to a tight one. If you were recently caught bluffing, your opponents will be more likely to call you in the future, although reverse psychology can occasionally prove beneficial in such situations. For example, if a good player caught you bluffing and he regards you as a good player, he might think you would not dare to bluff him again.
4. Your "reading" skills: if you "read" the game well and are able to put your opponents on likely holdings, you will be able to identify good bluffing opportunities. This is probably the hardest and most important skill to master.
5. The board: if the board looks like it could have hit your opponents or presents many drawing possibilities, a bluff is less likely to succeed. Look for boards without many draws or cards that are likely to improve your opponents' hands. If you can represent a hand, the bluff is more likely to succeed. An uncoordinated board with one scare card that you can represent is usually a good bluffing opportunity.
6. The size of the pot: your opponents will be more prone to call if the pot is big because they get better pot odds. On the other hand, if you make a successful bluff in a big pot the reward will also be bigger. This is when good judgment comes into play.
7. Position: if you are sitting in late position, you will usually have more access to information regarding your opponents' hands and will thus be in a better situation to bluff. For example, if it is checked to you, the board looks favorable and there are few players in the pot.
Made Hand vs. Drawing Hands on the Flop
Let us look at some odds for made hands vs. drawing hands on the flop at Omaha.
Made Hand Drawing Hand Favorite
Set overpair and flush draw Set 1.97
Set gut-shot straight and flush draw Set 1.91
Set overpair and straight draw Set 1.88
Set 13-way straight draw Set 1.44
Set open-ended straight and flush draw Set 1.38
Set 17-way straight draw Set 1.03
Set 13-way straight and flush draw Set 1.01 (even money)
Set 20-way straight draw Draw 1.19
Set 17-way straight and flush draw Draw 1.27
Set 20-way straight and flush draw Draw 1.43
Pot Odds
Pot odds are what you use to calculate whether a certain play has a positive expected value. It is defined as the relationship between the size of the pot and the bet. For instance, if the pot is $100 and you bet $10, the pot odds are 10:1. In order to calculate your pot odds, you must know how many outs your hand has at that moment. For example, if you flop a nut heart flush draw, you then have 9 outs to make your hand. There are 13 hearts in total. You hold 2 and the flop came with 2, leaving 9 hearts unseen.
If you refer to the table below, you will notice that you have a 35% chance of hitting a hand with 9 outs on the turn and river combined. This is slightly better than 1 in 3 times, which means that if it costs you $10 to win $30 or more, drawing for a flush is the correct move.
A rule of thumb: Every out gives you about a 4% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined. For example, 5 outs gives you about a 20% chance of improving, 6 outs about 24%, etc.
Outs for Specific Draws
Double wraparound straight draw 20 outs
Wraparound straight draw 17 outs
Straight flush draw 15 outs
Flush draw and overpair 11 outs
Flush draw 9 outs
Open-ended straight draw 8 outs
Three pair 6 outs
Two pair 4 outs
Drawing Outs from a Deck of 45 Unseen Cards
Number of outs % on Turn
4 17
5 21
6 25
7 29
8 33
9 36
10 40
11 43
12 47
13 50
14 53
15 56
16 59
17 62
18 65
19 67
20 70
By PokerListings.com
Pot-Limit Omaha, Cash Game
• Introduction
• Key Advice and Common Mistakes
• Pre-Flop Play
• Starting Hands
• Flop Play
• The Turn
• The River
• Pot Odds
Introduction
Pot-Limit Omaha is one of the most popular cash games played in casinos across Europe today. It has made significant headway in tournament games and, in fact, bigger tournaments host Pot-Limit Omaha events a couple of times throughout the year. Omaha is one of the fastest-growing types of poker today and is played far more in Europe than in the United States.
Pot-Limit Omaha is a very strategic game, involving a great deal of skill and discipline. It requires players to keep many concepts in mind simultaneously. This article aims to help beginner and intermediate players improve their Pot-Limit Omaha game by playing in a solid, tight-aggressive style. It advocates balancing bluffs and semi-bluffs with (mostly) solid play, and focuses on pre-flop and flop play since these are the most important betting rounds. The game rapidly becomes complex and more challenging to analyze when you reach the turn and river. However, if you play correctly pre-flop and on the flop, you will face fewer difficult situations on the turn and river.
As in all forms of poker there are exceptions to the rules; thus, the concepts laid out in this article should be understood as general guidelines. In order to be a truly successful player, it is imperative that you be able to use your judgment when determining the best possible play. It is virtually impossible to provide clear-cut advice applicable to all situations.
Key Skills to Becoming a Good Pot-Limit Omaha Player
• Strict hand selection (patience/discipline)
• Good table selection (very important in all poker games)
• Discipline (the ability to wait for a good hand and not chase with second best hands)
• Ability to read your opponents
• Courage to bet/raise (to be aggressive with draws or perceived best hands)
• Lack of vulnerability to going on tilt
A Comparison: Pot-Limit Omaha vs. Texas Hold'em
1. More players will see the flop in Omaha. The advantage of good starting hands over bad ones is not as great in Omaha. This encourages people to see more flops in Omaha than in Hold'em. It also creates bigger pots, making your decisions on the flop even more crucial.
2. You need a stronger hand to win at Omaha. The hands that typically win the pot in Hold'em, such as top pair with top kicker and overpairs, do not win it very often in Pot-Limit Omaha. In Omaha, the best hands are those that are made and hold additional value, like top set with a big draw. When the money goes into the middle in Pot-Limit Omaha someone is usually holding the nuts.
3. Omaha is a more hand-driven game. There are not as many opportunities to bluff in Omaha. This is due to the fact that there are more players seeing the flop and more combinations of hands to be made. When a pair is on the board someone is likely holding a full house, when a flush or straight is possible someone is likely to hold it, and so forth.
4. Giving free cards is generally a bad play in Omaha. First of all, because the pots are usually bigger on the flop, it makes more sense to try and win the pot right there. Second, your hands are much more likely to get action because of the greater drawing possibilities. Finally, it is very probable that a free card could beat your hand.
5. Although position is very important in all forms of poker, it is less important in Omaha. More players are in on the flop and it is hard to pick up a pot by betting when checked-to in late position. As a result, it is usually the player holding the best hand that wins the pot.
6. Tight players are less likely to be "bullied" in Omaha. In Hold'em, tight players can easily be bullied out of pots when the flop comes with low cards. However, in Omaha, because a tight player can play hands such as 8-7-6-5, J-J-5-4 or 8-8-7-7 with little difficulty, it is harder to push him around. The pondering bully can never be positive that you do not hold the nuts on a flop like 7-6-3, while, in Hold'em, he would be almost certain that you do not.
Pot-Limit
In Pot-Limit Omaha, you want to protect your hands by making pot-sized bets and raises until you are a big favorite, at which point you put all your money in the middle. You want to have the best possible hand and/or draw when all the money goes in. In Pot-Limit, the pots increase quickly and you must be able to determine the amount you can bet on the turn, if you expect to get called on the flop.
Generally, there is no reason to bet or raise less than the size of the pot when playing Pot-Limit Omaha. You might do this on specific occasions, like when betting into an opponent with the second-nut flush on the river and the pot is very big, or if you want a call on the river and you bet the amount you think your opponent will call. However, while it is entirely dependent on the player and the situation, most of the time it is best to bet and raise the size of the pot.
Key Advice and Common Mistakes
Key advice for Pot-Limit Omaha
1. Be very selective with your starting hands: nothing is more important than choosing the correct starting hand for a certain situation.
2. Table selection: only play in games where you have an edge. You want at least a couple of weak players at the table when you sit down.
3. "Play the players": be sure to quickly assess the opposition: who plays inferior hands, who folds at aggression, who bets with draws, who calls big bets with weak hands and draws, who can be bluffed, who bluffs, etc.
4. "Pump it or dump it": fold or bet/raise (if the odds are with you). You should avoid calling unless you have a good reason (such as trapping an opponent or increasing your pot odds when you are on a big draw).
5. Respect most big bets and raises: this is particularly true in Pot-Limit Omaha since most players do not bluff.
6. Do not get "married" to the nut flush draw: the difference between drawing to the nut flush in Omaha as compared to Hold'em is that in Hold'em you can usually win the pot by pairing your ace or win the pot with a flush even though the board pairs. The same is not true in Omaha.
7. Do not get "married" to an eight-way straight draw: in Omaha, it is possible to flop 13-way, 17-way and 20-way straight draws. It is best to wait until you hold one of these draws before you heavily involve yourself in the pot.
8. Do not overplay unsuited aces: when all you hold are a pair of aces and two unsuited, unconnected rags, there is little you can flop to improve your hand. If you do not flop an ace, you will usually end up with a weak holding.
9. Bet your best drawing hands: enhance the deception in your game by betting your strong draws, as you will also win more pots without a fight.
10. Always draw to the nuts in multi-way pots: when all the money goes into the middle in multi-way pots, be sure to draw to the nuts. Avoid committing all your money with draws without additional value as you can find yourself trapped between a set and the nut flush draw, which may leave you with only a nut straight draw that might end up in a split pot if you hit.
Common mistakes in Pot-Limit Omaha
1. Not releasing a decent hand when beat, thus losing the whole stack on one hand.
2. Overvaluing the hand (common mistake by Hold'em players).
3. Calling with weak holdings when facing a bet.
4. Playing too many starting hands.
5. Not raising pre-flop with premium hands (putting pressure on limpers holding drawing hands) and then going too far with them after the flop.
6. Giving free cards or underbetting the pot (risking a lot to win small/not protecting your hand).
Pre-Flop Play
General pre-flop advice
The most important skill to master when playing Pot-Limit Omaha is knowing which starting hands are profitable to play. However, there are no guides capable of covering every possible situation, so it is advised that you follow certain standard guidelines. Essentially, the hand you choose to play is dependent on the following factors:
1. Is the table tight or loose?
2. How many players are sitting at the table?
3. How many players are in the pot when it is your turn to act?
4. Has the pot been raised? If so, from what player and position?
5. What is your position?
1. If the table is tight you should strongly consider moving to a different game, though there are ways to make money at tight tables as well. In general, you have to play more aggressively than usual. This translates into much more pre-flop raising and bluffing. Your advantage at this type of table is that you will know how your opponents play but you will be playing more hands and playing them aggressively, which will make your plays harder to read.
2. Generally, you must play tighter at a full table and looser at a short-handed table.
3. If many players are in the pot when it is your turn to act, you will possess more information, which will allow you to play more hands. In addition, your drawing hands will get a better price and there is less of a likelihood that you will be able to limit the field by raising.
4. If the pot has been raised, you will have to play hands that you think are not dominated by the raiser. In these situations you should be very selective of which hands you play.
5. Your position will greatly affect the hands you play. In general, you have to play tighter from an early position and then add hands as your position improves.
Starting Hands
The starting hand is just as important in Omaha as in all other forms of poker. What you are looking for is four cards that work together, although many beginners (who are used to playing Texas Hold'em) do not realize this. They will play any four cards that contain one or two good Hold'em hands. For example, they often overrate hands like J -J -2 -7 , thinking that it is as good as a pair of jacks is in Hold'em. They also misinterpret hands, such as A -Q -8 -8 , because they include two decent Hold'em hands. However, in this type of hand there are poorly coordinated combinations, like A-8 and Q-8. For example, compare the aforementioned hands to As-K -A -K , which is the strongest starting hand in Omaha. In this hand, you hold AA, KK and two different combinations of AKs. All possible combinations are very strong hands in Texas Hold'em as well.
Other examples of hands that have four cards working together are hands like Q -J -T -9 , K -K -Q -J , Q -Q -J -T , J -J -T -T , As-A -3 -4 , As-A -K -Q , As-A -J -T (the second-strongest starting hand), 8 -7 -6 -5 , and so forth.
Thus, you want starting hands that hold both straight, flush and set potential. For instance, imagine the power of holding the As-A -J -T on a flop of A -K -Q , giving you top set, the nut straight and the nut flush draw. Notice that the J will also give you a royal flush. Another example is if you hold the Q -Q -K -T on a flop of Q -J -7 , giving you top set, a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw.
Hand ranking
Below are the top 30 starting hands in Pot-Limit Omaha.
1 A-A-K-K double-suited
2 A-A-J-T double-suited
3 A-A-Q-Q double-suited
4 A-A-J-J double-suited
5 A-A-T-T double-suited
6 A-A-9-9 double-suited
7 A-A-x-x double-suited
8 J-T-9-8 double-suited
9 K-K-Q-Q double-suited
10 K-K-J-J double-suited
11 K-Q-J-T double-suited
12 K-K-T-T double-suited
13 K-K-A-Q double-suited
14 K-K-A-J double-suited
15 K-K-A-T double-suited
16 K-K-Q-J double-suited
17 K-K-Q-T double-suited
18 K-K-J-T double-suited
19 Q-Q-J-J double-suited
20 Q-Q-T-T double-suited
21 Q-Q-A-K double-suited
22 Q-Q-A-J double-suited
23 Q-Q-A-T double-suited
24 Q-Q-K-J double-suited
25 Q-Q-K-T double-suited
26 Q-Q-J-T double-suited
27 Q-Q-J-9 double-suited
28 Q-Q-9-9 double-suited
29 J-J-T-T double-suited
30 J-J-T-9 double-suited
Whether double-suited, suited or non-suited, these are all very strong starting hands in Pot-Limit Omaha.
The trap hands
Trap hands are hands that seem very good but can easily make you a second-best hand. These are the types of hands that can cause you to lose your whole stack. There are three types of trap hands in Pot-Limit Omaha:
1. The Small Pair Hands
2. The Low Wrap Hands
3. The Small Flush Hands
1. Hands with pairs below nines are dangerous to play. When you flop a set it is very hard to escape the hand and, if you are up against a bigger set, you are drawing to one out. When you hold a hand like 6 -6 -5 -4 and the flop comes Q -J -6 , you may find yourself in big trouble. The moment to play small pairs is when you do not have a lot of money in front of you, at this stage it is not as bad to commit your whole stack if you flop a small set. Or, for example, when you have something like A-A-2-2 or K-K-3-3, then you should play in the hopes of flopping the big set. However, you must always think twice before you commit a lot of money with bottom set on the flop.
2. The types of hands that are very deceptive and dangerous to play are the lower four connected hands, like 5 -4 -3 -2 . These hands are dangerous because it is too simple to flop or draw to the low-end of a straight. When the flop comes 8-7-6 with this type of hand, you can easily find yourself up against a bigger straight, drawing dead.
3. Hands that can only make small flushes are risky hands. For example, let us again look at the 5 -4 -3 -2 on a flop of K -J -8 . This will give you a small flush. You cannot commit a lot of money with this hand and, if you were to get any action at all, you would most likely be beaten.
Limping or raising before the flop
In Pot-Limit Omaha, no matter what you hold, your opponent's hand will almost always have a decent chance of beating your hand. For example, being dealt an A-A-K-K double-suited is 50,000:1 (against) and that hand is just a 3:2 favorite to win against 8-7-6-5 double-suited. As such, the question arises of whether or not you should raise when you hold a good starting hand.
What about only raising when you hold aces? The problem with this strategy is that you become too predictable, as people will know exactly where you are and will not likely make mistakes against you.
How about always limping in? This is better than just raising with aces though it is still not an optimal strategy. Whenever you bet, raise or call on the flop, your opponents will also have a good idea of what type of hand you hold. If you never raise pre-flop, you do not make other limping players pay enough to see the flop for those times when you hold a strong starting hand. Also, you will not be picking up as many pots as when you play with a raising strategy.
By raising with a variety of hands pre-flop, you will gain numerous advantages: you become unpredictable, you pick up more pots, you make opponents pay when you are likely to have the best hand and you obtain more bluffing opportunities. Another advantage is that it is more fun to play according to this strategy. In light of all this, it becomes clear that a strategy combining both raising and limping with a variety of hands is the best.
Which hands to raise with
A good pre-flop raising strategy is to raise with any of the top 30 hands mentioned above, all of which hold at least one suit and most that don't, though this is not entirely sufficient and you will need to raise with more hands. Add any four cards in a row that are double-suited with cards, six or higher, and all single- and double-suited A-K-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher. Hands like Q-J-9-8 or J-T-9-7 double-suited are also good to raise with.
Summary:
1. All top 30 hands with at least one suit and most of the time when off-suit.
2. All suited A-K-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher.
3. All double-suited four in a row of hands, five or higher.
4. All double-suited connected hands, five or higher, with a maximum of one gap between the top two and the two low cards or between the low card and the three high cards. An example is K-Q-T-9 double-suited and J-9-8-6 double-suited.
5. All K-K-x-x double-suited.
Which hands to limp with
1. All A-Q-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher, and the ace being suited.
2. All four in a row combinations, four or higher.
3. All A-x-x-x anything with at least two x-cards that are connected and the ace being suited.
4. All four-in-a-row combinations, five or higher, with a maximum of one gap that is not between the top and bottom three cards in the hand.
Flop Play
General flop advice
Whether or not you were the pre-flop raiser makes a big difference in the way you play your hand. If you were the pre-flop raiser and the pot is short-handed, strongly consider betting-out even though your hand did not improve. However, you should always consider what type of flop hit. For example, if it is three-handed and you raised with two bare aces and the flop comes Q-J-T with a flush draw that you do not hold in your hand, it's a good opportunity to check and let the other two players fight for the money. But, if the flop is Q-7-3 with no flush draw, you should bet-out. This adds an element of deception to your play and enables you to pick up more pots. In addition, you will get more action when you do hit a great hand on the flop, since betting-out does not necessarily mean you hold anything substantial. Basically, you should never slow-play any hand when you hit your hand hard on the flop, especially because giving free cards in Omaha comes with a much higher risk than it does in Hold'em.
Two pair
Two pair is a difficult hand to play in Omaha. This is because it is a strong hand but not strong enough that you feel completely comfortable committing all your money with it. In general, you must have at least top two pair to give action on the flop. There are too many ways you can be beaten or will end up outdrawn if you commit a lot of money with top and bottom two pair or bottom two pair. If there are straight and/or flush draws on the board and you are called, use your judgment when deciding whether to bet again on the turn. Always consider the type of opponent you are up against. If you think your opponent will continue to draw, you should bet in an effort to shut him out. In Omaha, when someone just calls on the flop that player is generally on a draw, though in some cases they hold bottom set or a weak two pair that they do not want to release on the flop. Bottom two pair and top and bottom two pair are not worth playing on the flop, essentially. It is better to have a big draw to the nuts than to hold this type of hand. The most dangerous aspect of these hands is that you can trap yourself for all your money. This usually happens when you hit a full house on the turn and that same card gives someone else a bigger full house.
Sets
If you follow the playing style recommended in this article and avoid playing small pairs, you should not find yourself in many situations where you are up against a bigger set. If you were the pre-flop raiser, almost always bet-out on the flop if you hit a set. It is seldom wrong to bet-out with top set in a short-handed pot, even though the board looks scary. Remember that anytime you flop a set, you have about a 34% chance of improving to a full house on the turn and river combined. For example, if you pre-flop raised holding K-K-7-6 double-suited and the flop comes K-J-9 with a flush draw that you do not have, bet-out and be prepared to get action. The other players will have to hold a Q-T-x-x with the flush draw in order to feel comfortable moving in against you.
Some players only raise with aces and, if one of these players raised pre-flop and an ace flops, you can put them on top set right away. This is especially true if they limped in from an early position and then re-raised the pot after it had been raised behind them. These players will almost always be holding aces.
Straight draws
In Omaha you will flop many kinds of straight draws. What you want to flop are so-called wraparound straight draws. This happens when the flop comes with two cards that connect and you have cards that surround these two cards. Let us look at a few examples:
1. Hand: Q-J-8-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 17 (wraparound)
2. Hand: J-8-7-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 17 (wraparound)
3. Hand: K-Q-J-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 13
4. Hand: 8-7-6-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 13
5. Hand Q-J-8-7 Flop: T-9-x Outs: 20 (double wraparound)
It is better to have more overcards than undercards because you will be drawing to a bigger straight. This is why Hand 1 is stronger than Hand 2 and Hand 3 is stronger than Hand 4. Situations will arise when Hand 1 and Hand 2 move all-in on the flop. In this case, Hand 2's strength will diminish considerably, leaving it in bad shape.
You should bet the majority of your big draws on the flop. You do this for two reasons: because you can win the pot immediately (semi-bluff) and because it adds deception to your game. If you play in this manner, your opponents will not know whether you are betting a made hand or a draw.
If you flop a 13-way straight draw to the nuts without any possible flush draws, you are going to get involved in the pot. With 13 nut outs, you have an approximate 29% chance of hitting the nuts on the turn and a 50% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined. Therefore, if an opponent bets the size of the pot, you should call or raise depending on the situation and the player.
The Turn
The turn is generally a time for making big decisions. Should you bet again? Should you re-raise the maximum? Should you fold or call? This depends on many factors (too many to address here), though there are some general guidelines that can be followed. If you hold the nuts, you bet on the flop, and if you still hold the nuts on the turn, you usually should bet the maximum again. Your opponent is likely to be drawing and you want to shut her out or charge her the maximum for attempting to out-draw you. If you hold a minimum of 13 outs to beat whatever your opponent might be holding, it is appropriate to call a pot-sized bet on the turn, though only if both you and your opponent have money left on the river. With 13 outs, you are slightly less than 2:1 (13/44=29.5%) against improving and those are the exact odds the pot is laying you in this case. Because of the implied odds when there is more money left to win, a call is correct.
The River
If you hold the nuts, contemplate what your opponent might possibly hold and try to squeeze out the maximum. If you missed your draw, you must either give up or try a big bluff in case a scare card hits. A lot of judgment is needed when the pot is big and you hold a good hand but not the nuts. You must consider what your opponent is capable of. Will he try to run a bluff if checked to? Or will he also check? Do you dare to value bet with a good hand that is not the nuts?
Bluffing
Bluffing plays an important role in all forms of poker. In Omaha, bluffing is invoked less frequently than in Hold'em but it remains an important skill to master. It is best to bluff when you hold one or more of the key cards in the hand, for example, when you hold the bare ace and there is a possible flush on the board. When deciding whether or not to bluff, always consider the following factors:
1. Type of opponent: do not bluff weak opponents who call with anything (referred to as "calling stations"). This is the most common mistake. Be sure that your opponent is a good enough player to fold a hand.
2. Number of opponents: in general, do not bluff a field of three or more players. A bluff is much more likely to succeed against one opponent, not only because it is just one player but also because the pot is usually smaller, which makes it less desirable.
3. Your table image: a bluff is less likely to succeed if you have a loose table image as opposed to a tight one. If you were recently caught bluffing, your opponents will be more likely to call you in the future, although reverse psychology can occasionally prove beneficial in such situations. For example, if a good player caught you bluffing and he regards you as a good player, he might think you would not dare to bluff him again.
4. Your "reading" skills: if you "read" the game well and are able to put your opponents on likely holdings, you will be able to identify good bluffing opportunities. This is probably the hardest and most important skill to master.
5. The board: if the board looks like it could have hit your opponents or presents many drawing possibilities, a bluff is less likely to succeed. Look for boards without many draws or cards that are likely to improve your opponents' hands. If you can represent a hand, the bluff is more likely to succeed. An uncoordinated board with one scare card that you can represent is usually a good bluffing opportunity.
6. The size of the pot: your opponents will be more prone to call if the pot is big because they get better pot odds. On the other hand, if you make a successful bluff in a big pot the reward will also be bigger. This is when good judgment comes into play.
7. Position: if you are sitting in late position, you will usually have more access to information regarding your opponents' hands and will thus be in a better situation to bluff. For example, if it is checked to you, the board looks favorable and there are few players in the pot.
Made Hand vs. Drawing Hands on the Flop
Let us look at some odds for made hands vs. drawing hands on the flop at Omaha.
Made Hand Drawing Hand Favorite
Set overpair and flush draw Set 1.97
Set gut-shot straight and flush draw Set 1.91
Set overpair and straight draw Set 1.88
Set 13-way straight draw Set 1.44
Set open-ended straight and flush draw Set 1.38
Set 17-way straight draw Set 1.03
Set 13-way straight and flush draw Set 1.01 (even money)
Set 20-way straight draw Draw 1.19
Set 17-way straight and flush draw Draw 1.27
Set 20-way straight and flush draw Draw 1.43
Pot Odds
Pot odds are what you use to calculate whether a certain play has a positive expected value. It is defined as the relationship between the size of the pot and the bet. For instance, if the pot is $100 and you bet $10, the pot odds are 10:1. In order to calculate your pot odds, you must know how many outs your hand has at that moment. For example, if you flop a nut heart flush draw, you then have 9 outs to make your hand. There are 13 hearts in total. You hold 2 and the flop came with 2, leaving 9 hearts unseen.
If you refer to the table below, you will notice that you have a 35% chance of hitting a hand with 9 outs on the turn and river combined. This is slightly better than 1 in 3 times, which means that if it costs you $10 to win $30 or more, drawing for a flush is the correct move.
A rule of thumb: Every out gives you about a 4% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined. For example, 5 outs gives you about a 20% chance of improving, 6 outs about 24%, etc.
Outs for Specific Draws
Double wraparound straight draw 20 outs
Wraparound straight draw 17 outs
Straight flush draw 15 outs
Flush draw and overpair 11 outs
Flush draw 9 outs
Open-ended straight draw 8 outs
Three pair 6 outs
Two pair 4 outs
Drawing Outs from a Deck of 45 Unseen Cards
Number of outs % on Turn
4 17
5 21
6 25
7 29
8 33
9 36
10 40
11 43
12 47
13 50
14 53
15 56
16 59
17 62
18 65
19 67
20 70
Friday, June 6, 2008
Some funny chat, i am "yours truly"
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the pot (435)
SkipDaddy: god bless the chasers
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the high pot (280) with two
pair, Aces and Sixes
Dealer: judijudi wins the low pot (280) with 6,5,3,2,A
SkipDaddy: i saw a 3 way split of low comin
SkipDaddy: see
SkipDaddy: or not
Dealer: Beckyr71969 wins the high pot (660) with a
straight, Seven high
Dealer: judijudi ties for the low pot (330) with
6,4,3,2,A
Dealer: SkipDaddy ties for the low pot (330) with
6,4,3,2,A
SkipDaddy: why no raise on the turn becky?
SkipDaddy: or didn't ya know ya had da nuts at that
point?
Dealer: yours truly shows a straight, Nine high, for
high
Dealer: SkipDaddy shows Jack Nine high, for high
Dealer: SkipDaddy shows 8,7,5,3,2, for low
Dealer: yours truly wins the high pot (955) with a
straight, Nine high
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the low pot (955) with
8,7,5,3,2
yours truly: i am better than becky, skipdaddy
SkipDaddy: noted
Dealer: PeteVee shows a full house, Fours full of
Aces
Dealer: PeteVee wins the side pot (800) with a full
house, Fours full of Aces
Dealer: yours truly shows a full house, Fours full of
Aces
Dealer: PeteVee ties for the main pot (615) with a
full house, Fours full of Aces
Dealer: yours truly ties for the main pot (615) with a
full house, Fours full of Aces
yours truly: i am better than skipdaddy, note that
one
SkipDaddy: yeah, you got that one
PeteVee: everyone is
SkipDaddy: true dat, nitch
SkipDaddy: &!&#&
PeteVee: j/k
SkipDaddy: f/u
PeteVee: v/m
SkipDaddy: man I suk
yours truly: noted
SkipDaddy: can't believe I will chase here
yours truly: you cant stop yourself donk
SkipDaddy: indeed, I can't
SkipDaddy: it's the vodka talkin
yours truly: friendly jest to make you see your errors
SkipDaddy: oh sorry, I meant to just say f/u
SkipDaddy: not so friendly jest to make you see
your ar e dik
SkipDaddy: come on villian, you had it
SkipDaddy: it was yours for the takin
infocline: if he bets i think about folding
yours truly: he hate me
SkipDaddy: we'll miss your witty banter villain
SkipDaddy: and yer snappy pirate garb
microvillain: i am still better than becky, give me at
least that one
infocline: no
yours truly: ouch
SkipDaddy: more aggressive doesn't mean better,
but sure, we will throw you a bone
yours truly: ty
Dealer: yours truly wins the pot (545) with 8,4,3,2,A
yours truly: now that wasnt so hard was it?
yours truly: i will admit that that one was horrible
Dealer: cartania finishes in 7th place
yours truly: i am better than that guy
yours truly: probably going to cash too
SkipDaddy: god bless the chasers
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the high pot (280) with two
pair, Aces and Sixes
Dealer: judijudi wins the low pot (280) with 6,5,3,2,A
SkipDaddy: i saw a 3 way split of low comin
SkipDaddy: see
SkipDaddy: or not
Dealer: Beckyr71969 wins the high pot (660) with a
straight, Seven high
Dealer: judijudi ties for the low pot (330) with
6,4,3,2,A
Dealer: SkipDaddy ties for the low pot (330) with
6,4,3,2,A
SkipDaddy: why no raise on the turn becky?
SkipDaddy: or didn't ya know ya had da nuts at that
point?
Dealer: yours truly shows a straight, Nine high, for
high
Dealer: SkipDaddy shows Jack Nine high, for high
Dealer: SkipDaddy shows 8,7,5,3,2, for low
Dealer: yours truly wins the high pot (955) with a
straight, Nine high
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the low pot (955) with
8,7,5,3,2
yours truly: i am better than becky, skipdaddy
SkipDaddy: noted
Dealer: PeteVee shows a full house, Fours full of
Aces
Dealer: PeteVee wins the side pot (800) with a full
house, Fours full of Aces
Dealer: yours truly shows a full house, Fours full of
Aces
Dealer: PeteVee ties for the main pot (615) with a
full house, Fours full of Aces
Dealer: yours truly ties for the main pot (615) with a
full house, Fours full of Aces
yours truly: i am better than skipdaddy, note that
one
SkipDaddy: yeah, you got that one
PeteVee: everyone is
SkipDaddy: true dat, nitch
SkipDaddy: &!&#&
PeteVee: j/k
SkipDaddy: f/u
PeteVee: v/m
SkipDaddy: man I suk
yours truly: noted
SkipDaddy: can't believe I will chase here
yours truly: you cant stop yourself donk
SkipDaddy: indeed, I can't
SkipDaddy: it's the vodka talkin
yours truly: friendly jest to make you see your errors
SkipDaddy: oh sorry, I meant to just say f/u
SkipDaddy: not so friendly jest to make you see
your ar e dik
SkipDaddy: come on villian, you had it
SkipDaddy: it was yours for the takin
infocline: if he bets i think about folding
yours truly: he hate me
SkipDaddy: we'll miss your witty banter villain
SkipDaddy: and yer snappy pirate garb
microvillain: i am still better than becky, give me at
least that one
infocline: no
yours truly: ouch
SkipDaddy: more aggressive doesn't mean better,
but sure, we will throw you a bone
yours truly: ty
Dealer: yours truly wins the pot (545) with 8,4,3,2,A
yours truly: now that wasnt so hard was it?
yours truly: i will admit that that one was horrible
Dealer: cartania finishes in 7th place
yours truly: i am better than that guy
yours truly: probably going to cash too
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Wednesday live game recap
Wednesday was the big live game and here is the outcome:
Expenses:
$10 food/drink/high hand of the night
$100 tourney buy in
$100 buy in for cash game
[$9 short change in the cash game (only $260 left in kitty but I had $269 in chips)]
Profit:
$240 for 4th in the tourney
$260 for cash out in cash game
$290 to the good
Got screwed in the tourney, down 4 handed and UTG goes all in (wild player), I go all in next with AK, SB thinks and thinks and folds (said it was Jacks), BB calls all in with pocket 10s. UTG has A 10 offsuit. Flop comes J high (SB if he was telling the truth would have had trips). Blank blank on the turn and river - gg me.
Still up around $1150 for the year between the tourney and cash games for this group.
Expenses:
$10 food/drink/high hand of the night
$100 tourney buy in
$100 buy in for cash game
[$9 short change in the cash game (only $260 left in kitty but I had $269 in chips)]
Profit:
$240 for 4th in the tourney
$260 for cash out in cash game
$290 to the good
Got screwed in the tourney, down 4 handed and UTG goes all in (wild player), I go all in next with AK, SB thinks and thinks and folds (said it was Jacks), BB calls all in with pocket 10s. UTG has A 10 offsuit. Flop comes J high (SB if he was telling the truth would have had trips). Blank blank on the turn and river - gg me.
Still up around $1150 for the year between the tourney and cash games for this group.
Joe the pro - episode 7
I must have fallen asleep at the switch because he is up to 9 now. Here, at least, is number 7. You have to love this guys work!
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Finally came out ahead in something
Thanks to Pipedreams, I finally posted a win!
It is going to be interesting to see what happens once I finish these books. I have tried the SNGs for years with a little cash game/MTT thrown in for variety. However, the "entertainment expense" starts to build up over the years. Maybe these tools will start a new phase of cash game pot-o-gold, who knows.
I will let you know what I think once I get through the books, but don't expect that to happen in a week. I have little enough time to play as it is much less read about poker. My goal is to be done with the books by the end of May with maybe a few sessions on the cash tables.
It is going to be interesting to see what happens once I finish these books. I have tried the SNGs for years with a little cash game/MTT thrown in for variety. However, the "entertainment expense" starts to build up over the years. Maybe these tools will start a new phase of cash game pot-o-gold, who knows.
I will let you know what I think once I get through the books, but don't expect that to happen in a week. I have little enough time to play as it is much less read about poker. My goal is to be done with the books by the end of May with maybe a few sessions on the cash tables.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
The last one was a free for all
100 SNG no restrictions:
Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 horse y 7 0 -3.4 bullied and lost after being chip leader
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4 too fast early
3.4 PLO8 y 9 0 -3.4 stupid
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 LHE y 3 0 -3.25
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 2 9 5.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
5.5 horse n 4 0 -5.5 one guy sitting out i didnt and bubbled
6.5 horse y 1 24 17.5
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5 played too fast early
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE 45 plrs y 2 30 26.75
3.25 NLHE 6 plyrs y 4 0 -3.25
3.4 Horse y 1 12 8.6
3.4 PLO8 y 2 9 5.6
3.4 NLHE 10 y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 Horse y 1 12 8.6
2.25 PLO y 3 3.6 1.35
5.5 Horse 112 plyrs y 23 0 -5.5
2.25 NLHE y 1 7.8 5.55
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 Horse y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
3.4 hose y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 horse y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 hose y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE 6 plyrs y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.25 NLHE 6 plyr y 6 0 -3.4
1.75 NLo8 18 plyrs y 17 0 -1.75
1.75 NLO8 18 plyrs y 14 0 -1.75
6.5 NLHE y 2 16.2 9.7
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5
3.4 hose y 3 4.8 1.4
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5
1.75 NLO8 y 4 0 -1.75
3.4 PLO8 y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
6.5 NLHE y 3 10.6 4.1
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 1 12 8.6
3.25 LHE 6plyr y 6 0 -3.25
3.4 horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 PLO8 y 3 6 2.6
3.4 horse y 5 0 -3.4
1.2 NLHE n 7 0 -1.2
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 NLHE y 1 27 20.5
6.5 horse y 3 9.6 3.1
6.5 NLHE y 3 10.8 4.3
6.5 horse y 4 0 -6.5
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 Horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 PLO8 y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
Totals -14.9
Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 horse y 7 0 -3.4 bullied and lost after being chip leader
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4 too fast early
3.4 PLO8 y 9 0 -3.4 stupid
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 LHE y 3 0 -3.25
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 2 9 5.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
5.5 horse n 4 0 -5.5 one guy sitting out i didnt and bubbled
6.5 horse y 1 24 17.5
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5 played too fast early
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE 45 plrs y 2 30 26.75
3.25 NLHE 6 plyrs y 4 0 -3.25
3.4 Horse y 1 12 8.6
3.4 PLO8 y 2 9 5.6
3.4 NLHE 10 y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 Horse y 1 12 8.6
2.25 PLO y 3 3.6 1.35
5.5 Horse 112 plyrs y 23 0 -5.5
2.25 NLHE y 1 7.8 5.55
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 Horse y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
3.4 hose y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 horse y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 hose y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE 6 plyrs y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.25 NLHE 6 plyr y 6 0 -3.4
1.75 NLo8 18 plyrs y 17 0 -1.75
1.75 NLO8 18 plyrs y 14 0 -1.75
6.5 NLHE y 2 16.2 9.7
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5
3.4 hose y 3 4.8 1.4
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5
1.75 NLO8 y 4 0 -1.75
3.4 PLO8 y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
6.5 NLHE y 3 10.6 4.1
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 1 12 8.6
3.25 LHE 6plyr y 6 0 -3.25
3.4 horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 PLO8 y 3 6 2.6
3.4 horse y 5 0 -3.4
1.2 NLHE n 7 0 -1.2
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 NLHE y 1 27 20.5
6.5 horse y 3 9.6 3.1
6.5 NLHE y 3 10.8 4.3
6.5 horse y 4 0 -6.5
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 Horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 PLO8 y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
Totals -14.9
The 2nd 100SNG challenge
This one was a 100 $3.4 NLHE challenge:
Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4 loose play early cost me then over pair 9s crushed me with all in i called
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4 loose early play
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 AQ versus A10 and AJ, flop AK2 - money goes in and 10 on river
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 bullshit, AQ against 1010, flop QKK, steady betting, 3rd flush on turn - money all in then boom 4th spade
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4 jj flop was 10 high, raised it all in aa slow played and 2 other callers
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6handed - f up and got into it with idiot chip leader when 3 handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 wtf
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6 meo loses
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05 6handed
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.25 NLHE y 3 21 17.75 45h - shit
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 played too fast
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 stupid call with AK cost me 6th place and another $3
3.4 NLHE y 21 0 -3.25 fucking monkey re-raised me for the second time with A5 and I had AQ, Iost
6.5 NLHE y 5 0 -6.5
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 two overs and he calls the all in, idiot ran me down on the turn
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
6.5 NLHE y 7 0 -6.5 all had 6s, he called with 5s and hit
3.25 NLHE y 10 0 -3.25 45 people
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 people
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 sick beats put me on tilt
3.25 NLHE y 6 0 -3.25 still tilting Q10 calling AK's all in
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 still tilting away QJ versus AK all in
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45 people - no cards
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 0 AQ vs QQ
5 NLHE y 1 22.5 17.5 Ultimate Bet
2.2 NLHE y 1 8.4 6.2 Ultimate Bet
0.55 NLHE y 1 2.1 1.55 6 handed on Ultimate Bet
0.55 NLHE y 3 1 0.45 10 handed on Ultimate Bet
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 played like a donk, too aggresive with nothing
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6 screwed up at the end
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6 lucky
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 too aggressive, K3c flop is Jc3d8c, allin no joy
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6 stupid at end
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6 whew
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
5.5 NLHE y 9 0 -5.5
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 45 handed screwed up at end
3.4 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.3 6 handed
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.25 NLHE y 33 0 -3.25 45 handed
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 bubbled with QQ vs A4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
6.5 NLHE y 2 16.2 9.7
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 45h
4.4 NLHE y 69 0 -4.4 180h
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4 10h
3.25 NLHE y 16 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 22 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 24 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 31 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 10h
5.5 NLHE y 8 0 -5.5 18h
0.55 NLHE y 4 0 -0.55 UB 6h
0.55 NLHE y 5 0 -0.55 UB 6h
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 FLHE y 1 11.7 8.45 6h
6.6 NLHE y 3 0 -6.6 6h
11 NLHE y 41 0 -11 180handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 6h
5.5 NLHE y 2 66.8 61.3 90h full tilt
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 6 0 -3.25 6h
3.3 NLHE y 2 9 5.7 FT
3.25 NLHE y 1 42 38.75 45h
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05 6h
3.25 NLHE y 16 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 21 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45 6h
Totals 110.05
Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4 loose play early cost me then over pair 9s crushed me with all in i called
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4 loose early play
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 AQ versus A10 and AJ, flop AK2 - money goes in and 10 on river
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 bullshit, AQ against 1010, flop QKK, steady betting, 3rd flush on turn - money all in then boom 4th spade
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4 jj flop was 10 high, raised it all in aa slow played and 2 other callers
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6handed - f up and got into it with idiot chip leader when 3 handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 wtf
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6 meo loses
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05 6handed
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.25 NLHE y 3 21 17.75 45h - shit
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 played too fast
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 stupid call with AK cost me 6th place and another $3
3.4 NLHE y 21 0 -3.25 fucking monkey re-raised me for the second time with A5 and I had AQ, Iost
6.5 NLHE y 5 0 -6.5
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 two overs and he calls the all in, idiot ran me down on the turn
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
6.5 NLHE y 7 0 -6.5 all had 6s, he called with 5s and hit
3.25 NLHE y 10 0 -3.25 45 people
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 people
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 sick beats put me on tilt
3.25 NLHE y 6 0 -3.25 still tilting Q10 calling AK's all in
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 still tilting away QJ versus AK all in
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45 people - no cards
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 0 AQ vs QQ
5 NLHE y 1 22.5 17.5 Ultimate Bet
2.2 NLHE y 1 8.4 6.2 Ultimate Bet
0.55 NLHE y 1 2.1 1.55 6 handed on Ultimate Bet
0.55 NLHE y 3 1 0.45 10 handed on Ultimate Bet
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 played like a donk, too aggresive with nothing
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6 screwed up at the end
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6 lucky
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 too aggressive, K3c flop is Jc3d8c, allin no joy
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6 stupid at end
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6 whew
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
5.5 NLHE y 9 0 -5.5
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 45 handed screwed up at end
3.4 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.3 6 handed
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.25 NLHE y 33 0 -3.25 45 handed
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 bubbled with QQ vs A4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
6.5 NLHE y 2 16.2 9.7
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 45h
4.4 NLHE y 69 0 -4.4 180h
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4 10h
3.25 NLHE y 16 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 22 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 24 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 31 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 10h
5.5 NLHE y 8 0 -5.5 18h
0.55 NLHE y 4 0 -0.55 UB 6h
0.55 NLHE y 5 0 -0.55 UB 6h
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 FLHE y 1 11.7 8.45 6h
6.6 NLHE y 3 0 -6.6 6h
11 NLHE y 41 0 -11 180handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 6h
5.5 NLHE y 2 66.8 61.3 90h full tilt
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 6 0 -3.25 6h
3.3 NLHE y 2 9 5.7 FT
3.25 NLHE y 1 42 38.75 45h
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05 6h
3.25 NLHE y 16 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 21 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45 6h
Totals 110.05
Vegas soon - 1st horse
5 days till vegas. Unfortunately my poker skillz are poor. I hope that my pi gizzey skillz are up to par.
The first 3 100 SNG challenges are done with the following results:
Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 chased/bluffed with bad cards in razz when faced with raise pre
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 unreal beat, ended with Q10 versus J10
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 jesus christ am i stupid for trying to move them off a hand once they call the raise pre
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 jesus these idiots cant be bluffed
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 like an idiot i played
5.5 HORSE n 4 0 -5.5 bullshit call by the idiot bb even after the flop
5.5 HORSE n 3 8 2.5 overplayed the small pair heads up 3 handed
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 decent play
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 stupid play enough said
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 stupid play chased chip leader
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 bluffed too much, nits call with crap and win
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 wasnt paying attention
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 4handed - 2nd in chips and I got stubborn
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 ugh
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 too much action, 3 tables at once
5.5 HORSE n 1 20 14.5
5.5 HORSE n 2 12 6.5 luck box killed me at the end
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9 played stupid when obviously beat and drawing thin
6.5 HORSE y 8 0 -6.5
5.5 HORSE n 7 0 -5.5
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8 too stubborn at the end
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 played well
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 got screwed, chip leader and blew it, chased when chip leader but blinds too high doubled up short stacks
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 forced it again then came back
5.5 HORSE n 6 0 -5.5
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 8 0 -6.5 idiots ran me down big time
5.5 HORSE y 8 0 -5.5
6.5 HORSE y 4 0 -6.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
5.5 HORSE n 8 0 -5.5
5.5 HORSE n 1 20 14.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4 continued chasing in razz when didn't improve
5.5 HORSE n 2 12 6.5 got unlucky heads up, str lose to full, str lose to flush, 99 lose to A 10
5.5 HORSE n 5 0 -5.5 no cards
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 luckbox to 3600 with 7 left then played like a donkey
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 drunk - talking to scott and dave too much
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 no cards or good bluff situations
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 great cards
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 Feese bothering me about fixing skype, lost concentration
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 donkville
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 blew the lead with 5 left and 5575 in chips
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 no cards and run down by crap
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 2nd best on suckouts
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 every other hand a starting pair in Razz
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9 too aggressive at end and nothing in either stud games
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8 shitty cards at end
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 chase too many times
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 6 0 -6.5 4 tabling too distracted
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6 4 tabling too distracted
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 4 tabling too distracted
5.5 HORSE y 1 20 14.5 good job
5.5 HORSE y 5 0 -5.5 unreal beats
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 idiot play
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 unreal, run down 3 times by idiots
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE n 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 early chip lead and then slow drain till high blinds and 5 suck outs in a row with shit hands.
Totals 77.8
The first 3 100 SNG challenges are done with the following results:
Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 chased/bluffed with bad cards in razz when faced with raise pre
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 unreal beat, ended with Q10 versus J10
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 jesus christ am i stupid for trying to move them off a hand once they call the raise pre
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 jesus these idiots cant be bluffed
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 like an idiot i played
5.5 HORSE n 4 0 -5.5 bullshit call by the idiot bb even after the flop
5.5 HORSE n 3 8 2.5 overplayed the small pair heads up 3 handed
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 decent play
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 stupid play enough said
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 stupid play chased chip leader
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 bluffed too much, nits call with crap and win
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 wasnt paying attention
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 4handed - 2nd in chips and I got stubborn
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 ugh
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 too much action, 3 tables at once
5.5 HORSE n 1 20 14.5
5.5 HORSE n 2 12 6.5 luck box killed me at the end
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9 played stupid when obviously beat and drawing thin
6.5 HORSE y 8 0 -6.5
5.5 HORSE n 7 0 -5.5
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8 too stubborn at the end
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 played well
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 got screwed, chip leader and blew it, chased when chip leader but blinds too high doubled up short stacks
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 forced it again then came back
5.5 HORSE n 6 0 -5.5
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 8 0 -6.5 idiots ran me down big time
5.5 HORSE y 8 0 -5.5
6.5 HORSE y 4 0 -6.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
5.5 HORSE n 8 0 -5.5
5.5 HORSE n 1 20 14.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4 continued chasing in razz when didn't improve
5.5 HORSE n 2 12 6.5 got unlucky heads up, str lose to full, str lose to flush, 99 lose to A 10
5.5 HORSE n 5 0 -5.5 no cards
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 luckbox to 3600 with 7 left then played like a donkey
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 drunk - talking to scott and dave too much
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 no cards or good bluff situations
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 great cards
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 Feese bothering me about fixing skype, lost concentration
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 donkville
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 blew the lead with 5 left and 5575 in chips
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 no cards and run down by crap
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 2nd best on suckouts
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 every other hand a starting pair in Razz
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9 too aggressive at end and nothing in either stud games
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8 shitty cards at end
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 chase too many times
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 6 0 -6.5 4 tabling too distracted
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6 4 tabling too distracted
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 4 tabling too distracted
5.5 HORSE y 1 20 14.5 good job
5.5 HORSE y 5 0 -5.5 unreal beats
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 idiot play
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 unreal, run down 3 times by idiots
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE n 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 early chip lead and then slow drain till high blinds and 5 suck outs in a row with shit hands.
Totals 77.8
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