Wednesday, September 16, 2009

PT stats

It is very important to understand that stats are sometimes cause and often effect.. effect of the cards that are dealt, effect of your table selection, and effect of your reads and opponents actions. Stats can help identify major leaks, but more often than not, if you are near the "expected" range, you will find more value in posting hands rather than wading through your stats with a fine toothed comb.

Playing many hands is very important before you begin to analyze any of the following stats. Some stats begin to converge fairly quickly (VPIP may be somewhat representative after 1000 hands) while other stats take a very long time to be meaningful (50K - 100K minimum to begin to look at your winrate). Often your style has changed by the time a stat converges to a meaningful number. If you feel as though you must post a stat post, it is strongly recommended that you have at least a 10K hand sample size. Until you reach 10K hands, your stats will often vary too much to put much weight on them. Use the following guide to track your progress and stat fluctuations relative to the typical ranges of these stats. The following ranges are provided for 10 player ring games at the micro level, but will remain fairly consistent as you move up.

VPIP: voluntarily put $ in pot (%). There is no sweet spot for this number, but the typical range is between 15 and 20. A few posters manage with sub-15 VPIP's and a few posters manage with VPIP's in the low 20's. As you move up, this number will often drop a point or two. Your VPIP will not be uniform across all positions. You should generally be tighter in EP than in LP.

PFR: preflop raise (%). The typical range is 7-10. A few posters exceed 10, but many posters begin their first 10K hands at or below 7. Some suggest that PFR should be half your VPIP, but that's an effectual coincidence and should not be your goal. If you only have a VPIP of 13 or 14, you will still often have the same PFR of 8-9 as someone with a higher VPIP. Your PFR will often be higher in LP than in EP.

VPIP from SB: typical range 25-35. This stat varies greatly by your table selection. If you typically play at passive games, you can expect this to be on the higher end. If you are in aggressive games, it will be lower. If its much lower than 25, you are missing out on a few profitable situations for the partial price. If its much higher than 35, you are probably playing too often and underestimating the difficulties of playing out of position postflop. Consult a starting hand chart for more information.

Saw flop all hands: This is an effect stat of your VPIP's and your table selection. It is often about 5% higher than your VPIP.

Steal defense: At the micro limits, this situation occurs very rarely and you will generally not have a significant sample size even after playing 20K hands. It is much better to focus on specific hands for defending situations as its often highly opponent dependent.

Attempt to steal: This situation occurs a bit more frequently than steal defense, but still it will not be too common until you hit the higher end of the micro limits. This number will often be in the mid-upper 30's, but will vary depending on your table selection and overall aggressiveness.

WSD: went to showdown. This number typical falls into the 28-32 range, but varies by your style. It is helpful in identifying potentially major leaks and too high a number often represents overly loose play on the big streets. Too low a number often represents a "fit or fold" mentality where you give up on too many profitable situations by ignoring the pot size.

WSF: won $ when saw flop. By coincidence, this number also falls into the 28-32 range. It is mostly an effect stat. If it is very high (35+) you may be running well. A number below 28 may indicate a problem with protecting your vulnerable hands or folding too many winners. Like many stats, a specific number does not indicate a specific problem, only that there may be one and you should be posting hands where you had difficult postflop decisions.

W$SD: won $ at showdown. Varies between 50-58. Below 50 often indicates that you are seeing too many showdowns while a number which is too high may indicate that you are folding too many winners. In limit Holdem, a pot is often quite large on the end, thus you often need to be quite sure that you don't have the best hand to make folding on the end correct.

FRB: folded to river bet. Varies between 40-55. This stat is pointless to analyze by itself. In combination with WSD or W$SD, it may indicate a problem of folding too much on the end (or not enough). As long as its not incredibly low or high, there are better ways to spend your time.

AF: aggression factor. This is an arbitrary number representing the relative frequency of which you are the aggressor on each street. The numbers vary greatly by your style and posting specific hands is generally better to determine if your aggressiveness is appropriate. VPIP/PFR account for your preflop aggression, so generally ignore AF - PF. Your postflop aggression will typically be around 2 - 3 on each postflop street. The flop is often higher than the turn and river, often exceeding 3.0. A micro posters overall AF (not including PF) will typically be in the 2.0 - 3.0 range. Some posters report success with overall AF's over 3, but nearly none have AF's under 2. This is not a stat worth overanalyzing unless it is woefully low or maniacally high.

when folds (%): This is not a stat worth overanalyzing as its speaks nothing of the appropriateness of your actions. Typical numbers may look something like this, but the range of "appropriate" numbers could be quite wide. (no fold: 12 _ PF: 75 _ flop: 8 _ turn: 3 _ river: 2).

check-raises: This is often in the 1% to 2% range of all possible actions. It is not worth analyzing this stat to decide if you are "check raising enough". Post hands to do that.

Win-rate: The number everyone is concerned about and the number we can do nothing about. Be happy with anything above 0 BB / 100 hands. The measure used is big bets per 100 hands. This accounts for multi-tabling and limit differences whereas $/hr gives you no real indication of success. Don't fret with something below 0 BB/100 if you have a small sample size. Variance and downswings happen and they can be quite large (200+ BB losses) and extend over a long period of time (10K+ hands). Your winrate will decrease as you move up in limits. Since its asked all the time, a 3 BB/100 winrate at .50/1.00 (online) is often regarded as great. 6 BB/100 is probably unsustainable. Once you reach 2/4 (online), 2 BB/100 is great for the long term and 4 BB/100 may be unsustainable. Also, you will be a loser from the blinds. The blind commitment is too great to overcome by solid play.

Standard Deviation / 100: This varies by your style, but 14-18 seems to be the typical range.

Summary: Remember, these stats speak nothing of the appropriateness of your actions, but primarily indicate the frequency of your actions (VPIP, PFR, etc). Generally lead towards a happy range for most of these numbers, but having good stats and good results are very different things. Stats are useful in identifying the existence of major leaks, but often leave you in a guessing game in determining where those leaks may reside. You will have to post hands or read materials to fix your leaks.

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