The System by Blinders
I have been a pretty big sports better most of my life. Most of the time, I analyze the match-ups, and come to a solid decision on what side to bet based on my sports knowledge. I have also employed betting "systems" in the past. One of the betting systems that I used in the past was for baseball, and it worked really well. I have not used this system in about 15 years, but I see no reason why it would not continue to work. Since IMO the system continues to work, yet I have not chosen to use it in a long time I have no problem revealing it here in detail, for someone who wants to take advantage of it. The system is basically an arbitrage system that takes advantage of the fact that Baseball is thinly bet compared to other sports, and has a very low house edge. The edge from arbitrage can easily out way the house edge, and lead to long term profits for the user of the system. Once you have convinced yourself statistically that the system works, you can ramp up the amounts you are betting and make some significant money on it. When I was last using the system I was betting between 2k to 5k a day as an unemployed UNLV student.
Baseball Betting
There are three main ways to bet on baseball. There is the money line which is a bet on who will win the game. There is the over/under line on what the total combined score will be. There is also a line called the "Run Line" which is a line with the favorite -1/2 run (The favorite to win by 2 runs or more). The system exploits the information from the over/under to find arbitrage opportunities between the Run Line and the Money Line. Arbitrage is simply a way of exploiting inefficient markets. The baseball betting market is inefficient because it is thinly traded. An example of arbitrage would be buying goods in the United States, transporting them to Europe and reselling at higher European prices. If the market is inefficient allowing for price disparity between two markets, and the cost of transport is less than the price disparity, guaranteed profits can be made. Guaranteed profits can be made betting baseball using arbitrage.
The System
So lets take a hypothetical game like the Yankees vs. the Red Sox. Lets say that Beckett is pitching for Boston and Boston is the favorite. The money line might be -145 (bet $145 to win $100) for Boston, and +140 (bet $100 to win $140) for the New York. If the house can get equal money laid on both sides they make a small profit by taking in $145 for every $140 that they pay out. The run line for this same game would be something like -145 for N.Y., and +140 for Boston. While Boston is favored to win the game outright, they are not favored to win the game by two or more runs. In this case, they are the underdog on the run line. Lets also say that the over under for this game is 10 runs. In nearly all cases the favorite on the money line is the dog on the run line unless they are huge favorites. The system is based on the fact that Boston will not win this game by exactly one run more than one in five times. I take $100 and bet it on Boston to win the game (money line), and $100 and bet it on N.Y. to either win the game, or lose by less than one run (run line). So I am betting $200 and will get back $240 if Boston does not win by exactly one run. As long as this happens less that one in five times I will collect $200 in profit before I lose both sides, and lose $200. I am looking for an average win of at least $40 in this case, so you shop sports books for lines like this. You also shop multiple sports books to find the best possible lines for each side. Because baseball is thinly bet, the lines are often different at different sports books. You identify the games you are interested in, and find the best lines to make your bets against. A lot of the time you will be able to do better than a $40 average win on a $200 in total bets if you shop around, but that is the minimum acceptable amount.
Before I started the using the system, I studied it against past games for several months to verify that it worked. What I found is that it works for American League games and was close to break even for National League games. Rockies home games were an exception to the rule for the National league. I also looked at the correlation between the over/under line, and the success of the system. I found that the higher the over/under on the games selected, the more successful and profitable the system is. All of this makes perfect sense. High scoring American League games are less likely to be decided by one run, while low scoring National league games, where they like to manufacture runs, are more likely to be one run affairs. So you can use the over/under line as a first screen to select American League games, and then make sure you can earn at least $40 on average based on a $200 successful bet. The higher the over/under, and the higher you can make on average per success helps to increase your profitability. In practice I like to use the system on about 5 games each day. That way you either made a nice chunk of change if everything works out, or you will break even if one of the five games is a one run game won by the favorite. The disaster scenario is losing two of the games, but I think that was so rare it only happened to me once or twice as long as I used it.
You will end up making huge bets with the system, and winning smaller amounts, but that is fine. You will be a high volume player, so you may be able to get rakeback or deposit bonuses at online sportsbooks while using the system. Back before the UIGEA when I was sports book bonus whoring it was not baseball season, so I was using football. This system would have cleared bonus requirements faster than you could blink, so there is some additional money to made there as well. Another great thing about this system, is it is purely analytic. You don't need to know anything about baseball to profit from it. Let me know if you have any questions or plan on trying it out.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Vegas Trip Advice
Poker From The Rail
Planning your summer Vegas trip
by “Tuscaloosa” Johnny Kampis
Whether you are a Vegas virgin considering your first trip to Sin City or a grizzled WSOP veteran preparing for yet another six to seven-week slough at the Rio you should find some useful information in my guide to planning your trip to Vegas and the WSOP.
Below are some helpful hints that I hope will enable you to save time and/or money as you make your Vegas planning for June and July. This is the best year since I’ve been regularly traveling in the summer for the WSOP for vacation discounts in Vegas.
Keep checking back here at Full Tilt’s Poker from the Rail in the coming weeks in the run-up to the granddaddy of poker tournaments as I bring you a series of articles highlighting the ins and outs of summer in Vegas, from WSOP orientation, to the must see sights, and the other tournaments in town you may want to consider during your stay.
Flights
Step one is deciding on how to get there. For most of us that means airlines. Reports are that average airfares are down 10 to 20 percent from last summer, thanks to the slumping economy and dropping gas prices. A quick look through the various online travel sites proves that theory out as many cross country flights can be had on many summer days for as low as $200-$250 round trip to Vegas.
There are ways to save even more on airfare. First, go to Southwest.com and download its Ding program. This will allow you to view Southwest’s daily specials for the departure cities of your choosing. For example, from my home airport of Birmingham, Southwest’s roundtrip fares to Vegas generally run $250-$300 with fees included, but occasionally on Ding those same fares drop to around $200 for the same flights.
The other recommendation I have is to bookmark the site AirfareWatchdog.com. You can search a city and find some really good daily or weekly deals that pop up from time to time, or view the top 50 cheap fares on any given day. Sign up with your email and get daily alerts from the site. In recent months, users got wind of a ridiculous $14 fare on Jet Blue from New York to San Francisco so this site could be well worth your time.
Rooms
Never have I seen room rates in Vegas this cheap. It truly is a bonanza on lodging there this summer as rates are down 30 percent or more at many properties. I found a ridiculous deal through Orbitz in which I paid less than $300 to stay on three and four-star Harrah’s owned mid-Strip properties for 11 nights in June and July.
Here is that deal: You can use the promo code 4ODWR75 to get $75 off a four-night weekday stay (Sunday through Thursday or Monday through Friday). This is some collaboration between Orbitz and Office Depot. In addition, on Orbitz there is a separate promotion at Harrah’s properties that allows you to receive a fourth night free with a three-night stay. I booked the Flamingo June 22-June 26 for $57 and Bally’s June 29-July 3 for $88 using the combined promotions. I sandwiched the Imperial Palace in between with no weekend discount for $152 for three nights. Total: $297.
Deals like this can be found by scouring popular travel discussion forums. I found this deal while looking at the popular 2 + 2 poker forums. (The poster had used the Office Depot promo to book the El Cortez for $12 for four nights.) Try these sites to find deals that may pop up over the next couple of months: LasVegasAdvisor.com, CheapoVegas.com, FatWallet.com and SlickDeals.net.
Another thing to consider before booking your room is the hotel’s location and your transportation situation. If you plan to rent a car then location within a few miles of Rio and the Strip is fine. If you plan to taxi it, then staying any farther than mid-Strip can be cost prohibitive. If you stay at the Rio you are obviously set for travel to the WSOP. The same is true for the Gold Coast, which is next door, and the Palms, which is about a quarter mile west of the Rio on Flamingo.
Cheaper rates for rooms can be found Downtown, but other than the Golden Nugget most properties are of the two-star variety. Also, aside from the Nugget and Binion’s (both of which are running nice summer poker tournament series – more about that in a future article), there are no other good poker rooms Downtown so you will often be traveling to the Rio or the Strip for the juicy poker action. If you rent a car this isn’t much of an issue, but is a major consideration if you are not.
Transportation
You have several options for getting around: taxis, rental cars, buses and hoofing it (NOT recommended, unless in moderation). Let’s look at each in turn.
If you come into town with a fat roll then you can probably afford cabs around town. From much of the Strip to the Rio will cost you around $10-$12 one way. From Downtown to the Rio is about $15-$20. If you plan a lengthy stay the fares will certainly add up.
Alternatively, you can rent a car. Rates are rather reasonable in Las Vegas, as an economy car will only set you back about $25-$30 a day, and having a car will give you a ton of freedom in exploring all parts of the city and beyond. I highly recommend this option.
A third choice is taking the city buses. Fares on the Deuce, the double decker buses that run up and down the Strip and to Downtown are $3 for one ride. A daily pass is available for $7, as is a three-day pass for $15. You can also use these buses to ride from the Strip to the Rio. There are two major negatives to bus travel: one, you have to hoof it to the bus stops, which might be a fair hike, and two, travel by bus is very slow. It can take more than an hour to get from Downtown to the Rio by riding a bus to Caesars Palace, getting off and walking around the corner to the Flamingo stop to get on a second bus to the Rio, for example.
I should also note that there is a free shuttle bus that Harrah’s runs from its namesake Harrah’s casino on the Strip to the Rio and back, which is a viable and obviously very cheap option to travel between the Strip and the Rio. At Harrah’s you board the bus at the bottom of the parking garage and at the Rio you board just outside the buffet entrance, which is to the left from the front of the casino.
Lastly, we have hoofing it. Vegas in the summer is not a pleasant time to spend walking around in the sun as the thermostat pretty well stays above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the daytime and above 90 degrees at night. Granted, the lack of humidity makes conditions more comfortable than they would be at the same temperatures in my neck of the woods in Alabama, but you still feel like your ears and nose are baking in an oven. The distance from Caesars Palace to the Rio may look deceptively shorter than it is – it’s about a mile in reality. I’ve walked it a couple of times during the day and night and I wouldn’t recommend either. At day you bake as the sun shines off the sidewalk and asphalt and at night you worry you’re likely to get robbed as the walk is pretty isolated (because people have enough sense not to try it!) If you plan to do some casino hopping on foot pace yourself by frequently stopping into the highly air conditioned properties on the Strip and hydrate yourself often.
Planning your summer Vegas trip
by “Tuscaloosa” Johnny Kampis
Whether you are a Vegas virgin considering your first trip to Sin City or a grizzled WSOP veteran preparing for yet another six to seven-week slough at the Rio you should find some useful information in my guide to planning your trip to Vegas and the WSOP.
Below are some helpful hints that I hope will enable you to save time and/or money as you make your Vegas planning for June and July. This is the best year since I’ve been regularly traveling in the summer for the WSOP for vacation discounts in Vegas.
Keep checking back here at Full Tilt’s Poker from the Rail in the coming weeks in the run-up to the granddaddy of poker tournaments as I bring you a series of articles highlighting the ins and outs of summer in Vegas, from WSOP orientation, to the must see sights, and the other tournaments in town you may want to consider during your stay.
Flights
Step one is deciding on how to get there. For most of us that means airlines. Reports are that average airfares are down 10 to 20 percent from last summer, thanks to the slumping economy and dropping gas prices. A quick look through the various online travel sites proves that theory out as many cross country flights can be had on many summer days for as low as $200-$250 round trip to Vegas.
There are ways to save even more on airfare. First, go to Southwest.com and download its Ding program. This will allow you to view Southwest’s daily specials for the departure cities of your choosing. For example, from my home airport of Birmingham, Southwest’s roundtrip fares to Vegas generally run $250-$300 with fees included, but occasionally on Ding those same fares drop to around $200 for the same flights.
The other recommendation I have is to bookmark the site AirfareWatchdog.com. You can search a city and find some really good daily or weekly deals that pop up from time to time, or view the top 50 cheap fares on any given day. Sign up with your email and get daily alerts from the site. In recent months, users got wind of a ridiculous $14 fare on Jet Blue from New York to San Francisco so this site could be well worth your time.
Rooms
Never have I seen room rates in Vegas this cheap. It truly is a bonanza on lodging there this summer as rates are down 30 percent or more at many properties. I found a ridiculous deal through Orbitz in which I paid less than $300 to stay on three and four-star Harrah’s owned mid-Strip properties for 11 nights in June and July.
Here is that deal: You can use the promo code 4ODWR75 to get $75 off a four-night weekday stay (Sunday through Thursday or Monday through Friday). This is some collaboration between Orbitz and Office Depot. In addition, on Orbitz there is a separate promotion at Harrah’s properties that allows you to receive a fourth night free with a three-night stay. I booked the Flamingo June 22-June 26 for $57 and Bally’s June 29-July 3 for $88 using the combined promotions. I sandwiched the Imperial Palace in between with no weekend discount for $152 for three nights. Total: $297.
Deals like this can be found by scouring popular travel discussion forums. I found this deal while looking at the popular 2 + 2 poker forums. (The poster had used the Office Depot promo to book the El Cortez for $12 for four nights.) Try these sites to find deals that may pop up over the next couple of months: LasVegasAdvisor.com, CheapoVegas.com, FatWallet.com and SlickDeals.net.
Another thing to consider before booking your room is the hotel’s location and your transportation situation. If you plan to rent a car then location within a few miles of Rio and the Strip is fine. If you plan to taxi it, then staying any farther than mid-Strip can be cost prohibitive. If you stay at the Rio you are obviously set for travel to the WSOP. The same is true for the Gold Coast, which is next door, and the Palms, which is about a quarter mile west of the Rio on Flamingo.
Cheaper rates for rooms can be found Downtown, but other than the Golden Nugget most properties are of the two-star variety. Also, aside from the Nugget and Binion’s (both of which are running nice summer poker tournament series – more about that in a future article), there are no other good poker rooms Downtown so you will often be traveling to the Rio or the Strip for the juicy poker action. If you rent a car this isn’t much of an issue, but is a major consideration if you are not.
Transportation
You have several options for getting around: taxis, rental cars, buses and hoofing it (NOT recommended, unless in moderation). Let’s look at each in turn.
If you come into town with a fat roll then you can probably afford cabs around town. From much of the Strip to the Rio will cost you around $10-$12 one way. From Downtown to the Rio is about $15-$20. If you plan a lengthy stay the fares will certainly add up.
Alternatively, you can rent a car. Rates are rather reasonable in Las Vegas, as an economy car will only set you back about $25-$30 a day, and having a car will give you a ton of freedom in exploring all parts of the city and beyond. I highly recommend this option.
A third choice is taking the city buses. Fares on the Deuce, the double decker buses that run up and down the Strip and to Downtown are $3 for one ride. A daily pass is available for $7, as is a three-day pass for $15. You can also use these buses to ride from the Strip to the Rio. There are two major negatives to bus travel: one, you have to hoof it to the bus stops, which might be a fair hike, and two, travel by bus is very slow. It can take more than an hour to get from Downtown to the Rio by riding a bus to Caesars Palace, getting off and walking around the corner to the Flamingo stop to get on a second bus to the Rio, for example.
I should also note that there is a free shuttle bus that Harrah’s runs from its namesake Harrah’s casino on the Strip to the Rio and back, which is a viable and obviously very cheap option to travel between the Strip and the Rio. At Harrah’s you board the bus at the bottom of the parking garage and at the Rio you board just outside the buffet entrance, which is to the left from the front of the casino.
Lastly, we have hoofing it. Vegas in the summer is not a pleasant time to spend walking around in the sun as the thermostat pretty well stays above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the daytime and above 90 degrees at night. Granted, the lack of humidity makes conditions more comfortable than they would be at the same temperatures in my neck of the woods in Alabama, but you still feel like your ears and nose are baking in an oven. The distance from Caesars Palace to the Rio may look deceptively shorter than it is – it’s about a mile in reality. I’ve walked it a couple of times during the day and night and I wouldn’t recommend either. At day you bake as the sun shines off the sidewalk and asphalt and at night you worry you’re likely to get robbed as the walk is pretty isolated (because people have enough sense not to try it!) If you plan to do some casino hopping on foot pace yourself by frequently stopping into the highly air conditioned properties on the Strip and hydrate yourself often.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
MISSING 14 YR OLD IN COLORADO
Arapahoe County, Colorado, please read this post by Frank Frisna about his 14-year old missing niece.
April 15th, 2009
My 14yr old niece is missing...
I was really hoping I would never have to write this here...
My niece Jennifer has been missing since Saturday night. She left here at 3pm to go to a friend's house and was to be home by 8. None of her friends have talked to her since 7pm that night and there is no sign that she ran away. No clothes... no cell phone charger... nothing to suggest that she had any intention of being away that long. She has never been more than an hour or so late and this is beyond her character. There was no trouble here and she was in a good mood when she left.
It took us a few days to get the police to take this seriously since the responding officer on Saturday night had her pigeon holed as a runaway from the start. Thanks to that moron we have lost precious time. Now we have the Colorado Bureau of Investigations involved and they are trying to get phone records quicker than I seem to be able to get them. We would have had them already but CBI needed the Arapahoe County Sheriff to upgrade from runaway to missing. The next step is to get her picture on the local news stations.
I cannot describe the torment we are all going through. My worst nightmare has come true... The idea of seeing her picture on the news is something I don't think I could ever be prepared for. I am going to want to include a reward for any information leading to her safe return. If she is hiding out... it is going to be hard for some 14-15 yr old friend of hers to keep quiet should there be money involved. I have $500 that I can start it with… Thanks to my ongoing medical bills, it is every penny I have to my name right now. If anyone would like to donate the cause, please send via paypal to frankybones@comcast.net - (* should no reward be issued…. monies will be returned.) If I get some of this other cash I waiting on, it will be added.
I have never needed the help of our readers more than now. Please take her pictures and info posted here and send out to your social networks.
For those of you who know me... know these kids are my life. I am the legal guardian of both my niece and nephew. I consider them my children and have dedicated my life to their happiness. I have always been there to make sure they had a father figure and someone to count on. I am living pure hell and each day that passes is killing my soul. I have been through too much to be burdened with more heartache. This has gotta be resolved soon… I would give my life to bring her home.
One thing that is getting harder to do is handle all the phone calls from concerned friends and family…. The constant updates are wearing me down so I will be posting here any major updates we have. You can also follow my twitter account.
That’s all I have for right now...
Jennifer… if you are reading this… I love you more than you will ever know and you are my best friend in the world… nobody is mad at you... mom is here too.. come home...
- Frank Frisina
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
OverlayZone
Overlay Zone
Seems like a nice application, but I don't know anything about the code, the company or what this may put on your computer. Since I don't play that many tournaments, I don't think I will download this, but you never know.
Thanks to Smokkee for finding this one.
Seems like a nice application, but I don't know anything about the code, the company or what this may put on your computer. Since I don't play that many tournaments, I don't think I will download this, but you never know.
Thanks to Smokkee for finding this one.
Friday, March 20, 2009
my fan club
gmunkey: ****ing moron chaser
ml: tell him god
buddysbluff: god got a potty mouth
gmunkey: better than being an absolute ****ing moron , buddy
gmunkey: didn't feel like catching a miracle this time you re tard?
buddysbluff: u really r as stupid as u look
ml: too funny
gmunkey: dude, you have a ****ing dog on your icon
gmunkey: Actually, two. One gayer than the other.
buddysbluff: my *** dog looks better than u
ml: nh
Dealer: ml has a pair of Kings
Dealer: Game #26185705056: ml wins pot (1800) with a pair of Kings
gmunkey: of course
gmunkey: king ****ing 2
gmunkey: why the hell wouldn't you call with king 2
gmunkey: I don't know if you are actually dumber than buddy
ml: after the j 8 chase? are you serious
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: you called a raise with k 2
gmunkey: that is a terrible ****ing play
gmunkey: did you learn to play poker by jacking it to gay porn?
gmunkey: THere's better literature on strategy.
gmunkey: uh oh, ml folded his queen 3
ml: tell him god
buddysbluff: god got a potty mouth
gmunkey: better than being an absolute ****ing moron , buddy
gmunkey: didn't feel like catching a miracle this time you re tard?
buddysbluff: u really r as stupid as u look
ml: too funny
gmunkey: dude, you have a ****ing dog on your icon
gmunkey: Actually, two. One gayer than the other.
buddysbluff: my *** dog looks better than u
ml: nh
Dealer: ml has a pair of Kings
Dealer: Game #26185705056: ml wins pot (1800) with a pair of Kings
gmunkey: of course
gmunkey: king ****ing 2
gmunkey: why the hell wouldn't you call with king 2
gmunkey: I don't know if you are actually dumber than buddy
ml: after the j 8 chase? are you serious
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: you called a raise with k 2
gmunkey: that is a terrible ****ing play
gmunkey: did you learn to play poker by jacking it to gay porn?
gmunkey: THere's better literature on strategy.
gmunkey: uh oh, ml folded his queen 3
Monday, March 9, 2009
Token Tilt
So I tried a couple 4.40 sngs for a $26 token on FullTilt.
I should have guessed something was up after the first lost:
QQ lost to 10 8 offsuit with 3 left for the a zero
Mistakenly thought I just got unlucky and these things are easy, I just have to remember "that'll happen."
Next game, AA lost to 44 with, you guessed it, 3 left for a zero!!!
I started to get pissed, but "that'll happen," right?
Next game, hit a ten on the flop - 99s couldn't let go and runner runner straighted me.
After that it was a series of KK losing to A4 off when he didn't even hit the ace.
KJ losing to K2, Q 9 getting rivered by Q 8 etc.
I should have just bought into 4 or 5 $26 tourneys straight up, it would have been cheaper!!!!!!!
Either that or just quit this silly game.
I should have guessed something was up after the first lost:
QQ lost to 10 8 offsuit with 3 left for the a zero
Mistakenly thought I just got unlucky and these things are easy, I just have to remember "that'll happen."
Next game, AA lost to 44 with, you guessed it, 3 left for a zero!!!
I started to get pissed, but "that'll happen," right?
Next game, hit a ten on the flop - 99s couldn't let go and runner runner straighted me.
After that it was a series of KK losing to A4 off when he didn't even hit the ace.
KJ losing to K2, Q 9 getting rivered by Q 8 etc.
I should have just bought into 4 or 5 $26 tourneys straight up, it would have been cheaper!!!!!!!
Either that or just quit this silly game.
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