Microthoughts

WBCOOP

2011-01-17T18:23:00.000-08:00

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.

Registration code: XXXXXX 392520

doubler stats up to 60.17

2011-01-17T18:13:00.000-08:00

The doubler stats are up to a win percentage of 60.17% and the 360 man sngs are ok, but it took a big score to get positive and just barely at that.

4-2 for the doublers

2011-01-17T10:32:00.001-08:00

Went 2 and 2 Friday, then 2 and 0 on Sunday to post a nice win. The stats are not moving that much because of the volume so I am still at a 60% win rate but I should hit the corner at some point (assuming I keep doing well) and notch that stat up to 61%. From there, who knows how far up I can push it.

WBCOOP coming up soon. I will try to register but since I didn't get the email invite I am a little skeptical about getting to play. If I do, I will push hard and try to get luck until I get the top ticket or 2nd best then I will try to be more selective.

OR I will push hard in Omaha type games (not my thing) and take a more measure, patient approach in the hold'em games.

OPR stats

2011-01-13T18:30:00.000-08:00

The opr stats are starting out on the right side will 25% ITM and all in top 30%

2011 is starting out pretty good and one final table already.

On the bad side, last three all ins:

A 10 versus A 2 and lost
A Q versus AA and lost
K J versus AA and lost

I don't mind when Aces hold but how the amount of times the BB or SB wakes up with aces in a quick turbo is more than annoying

It is almost time again

2011-01-12T10:01:00.000-08:00

As 2011 begins, it is almost time again for all the spring online tournaments from the WBCOOP to the SCOOP and I am sure Full Tilt has something going as well.

While I have not played much since the last WBCOOP, I plan on knocking the rust of the ol MTT skill set with an eye towards making a decent showing in one or both.

GOOD LUCK TO ME!

2011 here I come

WBCOOP

2010-10-14T06:59:00.001-07:00

Seven Card Stud - the forgotten game

2010-04-23T07:19:00.000-07:00

Kind of funny the Pokerstars would promote this game, but this and 5 card draw are the two games I initially learned how to play:

If you want a refresher course or just a trot down memory lane, click on the link to watch How to Play 7 Card Stud

Pot Limit Omaha

2010-04-23T07:16:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of Pokerstars:

If you want to learn how to play PLO, the supposed game of the future, watch the youtube video on How to Play Pot Limit Omaha

BBT5

2010-04-16T07:06:00.001-07:00

For a few dollars more

2010-03-23T06:41:00.001-07:00

Another task for the free googies:

The SCOOP event is starting May 2nd and will include $11 tourneys (for the likes of me) and even a $10,300 High Stakes Poker Tournament.

2 down and three more to go!

MV

Skill vs. chance debate

2010-02-25T09:11:00.000-08:00

A lot has been said and written about the skill vs chance debate when it comes to poker. Most will agree that some form of each exists within the game, but how should the game itself be classified – one of skill or one of chance.

For example, roulette, the “wheel,” craps, lottery and similar games are generally considered games of chance. On the other hand, games like chess, checkers, bridge, and similar games are generally considered games of skill.

Some people advocate that a game should be categorized as skill or chance based on what factor dominates. But dominates what? How much you win, whether you are a short term winner, whether you are a long term, or the result of each play?

In my view, a game should be characterized as one of chance if you cannot manipulate the outcome of the event. Take roulette, I view this as a game of chance in that no amount of skill can alter whether the outcome (what action gets paid) of the ball. In contrast, chess is a game of skill because the outcome of a game is influenced by the skill of the player (relative to his opponent).

But what about poker? Poker is a game of incomplete information. When a player chooses to play a hand, the outcome will be determined by the actions of the player and his opponents (will they call a raise, fold to a check raise etc.). Since it is a game of incomplete information, the action of a player’s opponents will be governed by the assumptions or guesses they make about the incomplete information (what does the player have for a hand). Thus, a player can manipulate the actions of an opponent (call a bet when the opponent will lose or fold to a bet when the opponent would have won) by manipulating the opponents perception or guess as to the incomplete information. By manipulating the actions of an opponent, a player is manipulating the outcome of the action/hand. The better a player is at manipulating their opponent’s perception of the incomplete information, the better a player will do in the long run, which is why playing poker is clearly a game of skill.

Wish me luck

2010-01-13T20:03:00.000-08:00

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! This PokerStars tournament is a No Limit Texas Hold’em event exclusive to Bloggers, you too can take part by registering on WBCOOP

Registration code: 520274

Poker goals for 2010

2010-01-12T14:24:00.000-08:00

For 2010, I would like to play more tournaments and more PLO (sngs to start). I also want to go to Commerce and WSOP.

Tournaments:
1-when I have long periods available (Friday and Saturday night), use it wisely and start early.
2- be patient and don't force the action or try to outplay other players

PLO:
1-start slow with the low limit sngs to get a feel for the game
2-move up to cash at some point

Commerce:
1-go in February and suck up the long flights

WSOP:
1-go in early June if possible
2-look for sat. opportunities to play in a 1500 event.

2010 WSOP Schedule

2010-01-11T12:08:00.001-08:00

Fri, May 28th
12:00 PM
2-Day Event Event #1: Casino Employees No-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $500

Fri, May 28th
5:00 PM
5-Day Event Event #2: The Player's Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now

Limit Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better, Seven Card Razz,
Seven Card Stud, Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better, No-Limit Hold'em,
Pot-Limit Omaha, 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball
$50,000

Sat, May 29th
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #3: No-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Sun, May 30th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #4: Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Mon, May 31st
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #5: No-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Tue, Jun 1st
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #6: No-Limit Hold'em Shootout (2000 players max)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $5,000

Tue, Jun 1st
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #7: 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball (Limit)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Wed, Jun 2nd
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #8: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Thu, Jun 3rd
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #9: Pot-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Thu, Jun 3rd
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #10: Seven Card Stud Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Fri, Jun 4th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #11: No-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Fri, Jun 4th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #12: Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Sat, Jun 5th
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #13: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000
Sat, Jun 5th

5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #14: 2-7 Draw Lowball (No-Limit)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Sun, Jun 6th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #15: Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Mon, Jun 7th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #16: No-Limit Hold’em / Six Handed
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Tue, Jun 8th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #17: No-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $5,000

Wed, Jun 9th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #18: Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,000

Wed, Jun 9th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #19: 2-7 Draw Lowball Championship (No-Limit)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Thu, Jun 10th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #20: Pot-Limit Omaha
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Thu, Jun 10th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #21: Seven Card Stud
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Fri, Jun 11th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #22: Ladies No-Limit Hold’em Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Fri, Jun 11th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #23: Limit Hold'em / Six Handed
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Sat, Jun 12th
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #24: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Sat, Jun 12th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #25: Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Mon, Jun 14th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #26: No-Limit Hold'em / Six Handed
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Mon, Jun 14th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #27: Seven Card Stud Hi-Low-8 or Better
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Tue, Jun 15th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #28: Pot-Limit Omaha
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Tue, Jun 15th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #29: Limit Hold'em Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Wed, Jun 16th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #30: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Wed, Jun 16th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #31: H.O.R.S.E.
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now

Limit Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better, Seven Card Razz,
Seven Card Stud, Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better
$1,500

Thu, Jun 17th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #32: No-Limit Hold'em / Six Handed
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $5,000

Thu, Jun 17th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #33: Pot-Limit Hold'em/Omaha
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Fri, Jun 18th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #34: Seniors No-Limit Hold’em Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Fri, Jun 18th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #35: Heads Up No-Limit Hold'em Championship (256 player max)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Sat, Jun 19th
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #36: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Sat, Jun 19th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #37: H.O.R.S.E.
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now

Limit Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better, Seven Card Razz,
Seven Card Stud, Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better
$3,000

Sun, Jun 20th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #38: Pot-Limit Hold'em Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Mon, Jun 21st
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #39: No-Limit Hold'em Shootout (2,000 player max)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Mon, Jun 21st
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #40: Seven Card Razz
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Tue, Jun 22nd
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #41: Pot-Limit Omaha Hi-low Split-8 or Better
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Wed, Jun 23rd
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #42: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Wed, Jun 23rd
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #43: H.O.R.S.E. Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now

Limit Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better, Seven Card Razz,
Seven Card Stud, Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better
$10,000

Thu, Jun 24th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #44: Mixed Hold'em (Limit/No-Limit)
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Fri, Jun 25th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #45: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Fri, Jun 25th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #46: Pot-Limit Omaha Hi-low Split-8 or Better
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $5,000

Sat, Jun 26th
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #47: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Sat, Jun 26th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #48: Mixed Event
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Mon, Jun 28th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #49: No-Limit Hold'em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Mon, Jun 28th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #50: Pot-Limit Omaha
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $5,000

Tue, Jun 29th
12:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #51: Triple Chance No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $3,000

Wed, Jun 30th
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #52: No-Limit Hold’em / Six Handed
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $25,000

Wed, Jun 30th
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #53: Limit Hold’em Shootout
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,500

Thu, Jul 1st
12:00 PM
4-Day Event Event #54: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $1,000

Thu, Jul 1st
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #55: Pot-Limit Omaha Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $10,000

Fri, Jul 2nd
5:00 PM
3-Day Event Event #56: No-Limit Hold’em
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now $2,500

Sat, Jul 3rd
2:00 PM
1-Day Event Ante Up For Africa Poker Tournament
Structure Sheet $5,000

Mon, Jul 5th
12:00 PM
13-Day Event Event #57: No-Limit Hold'em Championship
Structure Sheet Pre-Register Now
July 5,2010 12:00 PM Day 1A
July 6,2010 12:00 PM Day 1B
July 7,2010 12:00 PM Day 1C
July 8,2010 12:00 PM Day 1D
July 9,2010 12:00 PM Day 2A
July 10,2010 12:00 PM Day 2B
July 11,2010 12:00 PM Media Event
July 12,2010 12:00 PM Day 3
July 13,2010 12:00 PM Day 4
July 14,2010 12:00 PM Day 5
July 15,2010 12:00 PM Day 6
July 16,2010 12:00 PM Day 7 (play down to 27 players)
July 17,2010 12:00 PM Day 8 (play down to 9 players)
November,2010 TBD FINAL TABLE

$10,000

General Information

For events 3, 13, 24, 36, 47, 54, and 57, you may request your first day of play based on seating availability.

For vendor information please call 702-777-2310

Single Table Satellites, Mega Satellites and Live Action begin on May 27, 2010:

No-Limit Hold'em Tournaments Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday June 1-30
$550 Buy-In No-Limit Hold'em tournaments Daily at 1PM. Structure Sheet

Nightly No-Limit Hold'em Tournament Schedule May 27-July 4:
$340 Buy-In No-Limit Hold'em tournaments nightly at 7 PM. Structure Sheet
$200 Buy-In No-Limit Hold'em tournaments nightly at 11pm. Structure Sheet

Mega Satellite Schedule: May 27-July 2
$330 Buy-In Mega Satellites Daily at 3 PM. Structure Sheet
$550 Buy-In Mega Satellites Daily at 9 PM. Structure Sheet

Mega Satellite Days July 3-7:
$550 Buy-In Mega Satellites at 10 AM and 4 PM. Structure Sheet
$1060 Buy-In Mega Satellites at 1 PM. Structure Sheet
$2080 Buy-In Mega Satellites at 9 PM. Structure Sheet

Turbo Mega Satellite July 8:
$1060 Buy-In Turbo Mega Satellite at 8AM. Structure Sheet

$25k Six Handed No-Limit Hold'em Mega Satellite Days June 27-29:
$1570 Buy-In Mega Satellites at 8 PM. Structure Sheet

$50k The Player's Championship Mega Satellites May 27:
$2250 Buy-In Mega Satellites at 1 PM, 4 PM, and 8 PM. Structure Sheet

The Following Take-Out Percentages Will Be Withheld From the Buy-In for House Fees and Dealer/Staff Tokes
Buy-In Take-Out
$500.00 10%
$1000.00 10%
$1500.00 10%
$2000.00 9%
$2500.00 8%
$3000.00 8%
$5000.00 6%
$10,000.00 6%
$25,000.00 5%
$50,000.00 4%

WBCOOP

2010-01-11T11:22:00.000-08:00

6 handed PT strat and stats

2009-09-16T07:52:00.000-07:00

I've been thinking quite a bit about 6 max play lately. Mostly this is because I've been playing it that much. I found Absolute's 6 max games are much softer than it's full ring play, and I can never seem to run out of bonus there. I also found myself helping another 2+2er make his first foray into 6 max play, and every other day or so we seem to get a post here about people feeling lost at 1/2 6 max. While I'm a perpetual student of 6 max, and poker in general, I have managed to learn a few things and compile a pretty good deal of information from the forums here, specifically about taking those first few baby steps.

About a month ago, someone posted a poll in both HUSH and small stakes (sorry, lost the link) asking if people thought learning full ring or short handed play was more difficult. The overwhelming response from both forums was, to the surprise of virtually no one, that people thought learning 6 max play was more difficult. One poster chimed in, though, with a comment that rang very true: every full ring player encounters situations resembling 6 max play every single time they play, but a 6 max player will never see many situations from full ring. A similar thesis was also discussed by Ed Miller in his April 2005 article on preflop play in short handed situations. He argued that the commonly stated idea, "In shorthanded games you pay the blinds more often, so you have to play more hands to compensate," was incorrect. Instead, he stated, "Playing in a shorthanded game is theoretically no different from playing in a full game where some players have folded. Being under the gun in a four-handed game is the same situation as being one off the button in a ten-handed game where everyone has folded to you."

When people talk about short-handed situations, they are frequently talking in the same breath about all the adjustments you need to make: how you need to be more aggressive, how you need to defend your blinds, how you need to find value in marginal hands, how A high has showdown value, how you should never open-limp, how all these maniacs will 3-bet with anything, etc. All these things are true, for the most part, but there are two major undertones here that are incorrect: one, that 6 max play is significantly different from full ring play, and two, that these are things you shouldn't be doing in full ring play.

Those two thoughts, I believe, are the two biggest issues that people have when they start out in 6 max play, myself included. Short-handed play gets filed in their heads as a completely different game, and people walk into it looking to make radical adjustments in their play. Sensible, winning 2+2ers will do things like try to steal against loose blinds with J2o, call down with Q high, defend their big blind from a tight player with 93s, and 3-bet a turn check/raise from a passive player after a scare card drops when holding second pair. Most 2+2ers wouldn't dream of doing these things in a full ring game, and yet it happens all the time when you put a good player at his first 6 max table.

Six max play is still poker. Repeat that. Six max play is still poker - the same game we know and love, and know how to beat. Pot odds still apply. Bottom pair is is not the nuts. Turn check/raises on paired boards from passive players still tend to mean sad things for AA. Sets can still get cracked. Sometimes, yes, the other guy does have the flush. Never forget the things you learned from SSH and from the thousands of hands of full ring you've played up to this point. The same fundamentals still apply. Any experienced 2+2er should be able to sit down at a 6 max table and make NO adjustments from their full ring play and still be successful. All he or she needs to do is play every hand as if it was folded to MP2.

That's the real trick, though, and that's the reason why people talk about all the adjustments you need to make. People are making adjustments to 6 max play because they are lacking in important concepts from full ring play. That is also why most veterans say playing 1/2 6 max is crucial before moving up to 2/4 and beyond. If you're lacking in one of the "adjustments" you need to make, you are an incomplete poker player, even strictly in terms of full ring play.

Therein lies the beauty of 6 max play. It brings to the fore concepts that you can ignore in full ring play and still be a winning player. For example, in full ring play, you check a garbage hand in the BB after the CO open-limps, the button limps, and the SB folds. On the flop, you hit second pair on a ragged flop. The natural inclination of many full ring players is to just check/fold and not give the hand a second thought. You don't have to when playing full ring. You'll get paid off well enough when you make it to the river holding the nut flush and the pot is still five handed to make up for the very slim EV in the previous hand. When you're playing short-handed, however, there is no way you can possibly get paid off as well as full ring when you hit something good. Therefore, you had better start finding value elsewhere, or else those blinds are going to eat you alive.

Many more concepts come out to play like this. Preflop strategy changes because open limping is a no-no, just like it is for later positions in full ring (check out Ollie's hand in the second thread, too - not only his good play, but his last sentence). Reads, real reads, become more important, because you'll find yourself heads-up with the same people more often. Hand reading becomes more important because you have to know when your bottom pair has some value. Unimproved overcard and underpair (and more underpair) play become more important because you'd better be extracting some value here as well. It's a big part of your win rate. When you find yourself playing in the blinds 66% more often, you'd darn well better find a good way to minimize your losses, given that everyone loses money from the blinds. The thing is, these situations come up in full ring as well, but people are too used to taking the easy route and folding. As NPA said in one of the articles I linked above, "...you guys are hesitant to play marginal hands in spots that are profitable but uncomfortable. Yes, you aren't thrilled that you have unimproved ace-king in a big pot, but that's what you got, and you have to make the best play with it. It seems that some of you don't want to make the correct play because it MIGHT (note caps) leave you with a "tough" river decision." Playing 6 max forces you to make the tough decisions and play correctly in the uncomfortable spots that you may have been avoiding because of how much of your winnings comes from the sum of all the marginal situations you encounter. The best part, though, is that the ability to play in these marginal situations in 6 max play will do nothing but improve your full ring play as well. Just remember, though, that there's still a difference between a marginal hand and a truly awful one.

With the ever increasing popularity of 6 max play in these parts comes an increasing number of questions about the proper stats to have for 6 max play.

The problem with stats is that having stats in line with typical values does not necessarily imply good play, nor does having stats out of line with typical values necessarily imply bad play. However, seeing that your stats are out of line can give you a quick diagnosis and a place to start looking for holes. Hopefully the information I've compiled and put in here will be used as a beginning, not an end, for improving play.

------------------------

VPIP and PFR: These are easily the stats about which the most questions are asked, and the answer is farly imprecise. Following this starting hand chart will get you to about 23-25/14-16 or so, and that's pretty reasonable. If that feels too loose and too aggressive, you could consider tightening up somewhat until you get more comfortable, but if you're playing any tighter than 22/12, you're probably passing up on too many profitable opportunities. Some of the most experienced posters in HUSH play as aggressively as 30/20. This is pretty much the recommended maximum, and this is not recommended for players who are just getting started in 6 max play, or especially for those still fairly new to hold'em in general. The last thing to keep in mind is that you don't want to be playing 30/12 or 21/20. Your VPIP and PFR should increase (or decrease) cooperatively.

Given the same set of opponents, you should be playing exactly the same preflop as you would if it was folded to MP2 in a full ring game. If you find there are differences between the two, you may want to consider adjusting your play as appropriate so that the two match. While differences in your reads of the players at the two different games may dictate somewhat different plays, it's not anything fundamentally different between the two versions of the same game we know and love.

VPIP from SB: This stat varies from about 25% to about 40%, with 35% being a pretty happy medium. The tighter numbers often come from people playing in 5/10 6 max with a 2/5 blind structure. Naturally, you should play tighter in that case, and tightest of all in a 1/3 structure at 3/6. For 6 max play, you're going to have fewer opportunities where there enough limpers to make completing 72s a good idea (fewer limpers = lower implied odds), but you can complete some traditionally dubious hands for high card strength against one really bad limper.

Folded SB to steal: Typical values for this are around 85%, give or take 5%. When you're defending your SB against a steal, you almost always want to 3bet to take the initiative back, and to hopefully fold the BB rather than offer him 5:1 on the call. The set of hands you'd raise preflop is, understandably, the set from which you'd usually select hands for 3betting in SB defense. Given that typical PFR values will be 10-20%, having your fold SB to steal roughly equal to 100% - your PFR% is pretty reasonable. Again, if you play in a game where the SB is not equal to half of the BB, then this number should decrease somewhat. You have relatively less to defend.

Folded BB to steal: The decision about whether or not to defend your BB depends on a lot of factors, primarily what range of hands the theif is raising (does he even steal, or is this raise legitimate?), your read on the theif's postflop play, and how comfortable you are with defending. Having this be at 70% is not a bad place to start out your 6 max play, but getting it down to 60% or so would probably be better. You can play a lot of hands getting good pot odds, especially since the theif's hand range will be large. If the SB comes along and offers you 5:1, you can really open up. Some veterans have this stat below 50%, but, again, that's not recommended for players new to 6 max play who might be less familiar with defending their blinds. A lot of the difference between your VPIP and your PFR comes from defending your BB - you won't be limping much.

Attempt to steal blinds: Following the above chart will get you to about 30% or so, which, again, is pretty reasonable. As you get more comfortable and get better reads on your opponents, you can increase that somewhat (or decrease, if appropriate). Much above 40%, however, and even the worst players will start to catch on to what your doing.

Aggression factors: Postflop aggression factors for 6 max play will tend to be higher than for full ring play, but not too much higher. They should also generally decrease by street. Flop aggression will tyipcally be between 2.5 and 3.5. Any higher than 3.5 and you're probably overplaying (looking for autobetting after PFR in bad situations is a good place to start if this describes you) and/or playing fit or fold. River will typically be between 1.5 and 2.5. Much higher than that, and you're probably folding too many winners. I've seen some posters with stats that look like 3.5/2.5/1.6, and other similarly successful posters with stats that look more like 2.9/2.7/2.5. It's not entirely clear which style is more profitable due to sample size issues, but both can be quite profitable. I guess you guys can debate the merits of each style in this thread if you have an opinion, or especially some data. I'd be especially curious to hear from people who've played both styles: not only to hear which they prefer, but also what they did to their postflop play that resulted in the transition.

This stat, though, is one to be particularly careful with. Don't increase or decrease your aggression for stats' sake. Look at hands and learn when to choose your spots.

Went to showdown: Marginal hands will tend to have more value when there are fewer players involved. Expect to show down more hands. A value of about 32 is probably about as low as is reasonable, and 40%-ish is about the ceiling. Typical values are 35-38%. As you add hands, this may decrease slightly, but if you're only adding hands that you end up folding before showdown, it's time to rethink about adding those hands. Also, if you play aggressively enough (and/or against tight enough opponents) that many hands don't make it to showdown, this will tend to decrease.

Won $ at showdown: This stat should be pretty much in line with typical full ring stats: 50-60%. Your marginal hands that you end up showing down will have more value, but they're still marginal. If this number is too high, you may be running hot or not showing down enough marginal hands. If it's too low, you may be guilty of calling down with jack high and need to review which hands are marginal, and which are still trash, even at 6 max.

Position Stats tab: Primarily make sure that you're getting looser and more aggressive preflop as you move from UTG to the button. The actual numbers are not particularly important if your main stats are in line, but that general trend should certainly be there.

Misc. Stats tab: Krishan Leong did an interesting study to estimate how hot or cold you are running. He looked at the data from many good players Misc. Stats tab to come up with percentages of how often you should win with each kind of hand, and roughly how often you should get a straight, flush or full house (1 in every 200 hands or so, and this has little to do with the quality of your play). Rather than rehash his entire post here, take a look at it yourselves. Make sure that when you're looking at your stats here, you have the "Show Only Hands That Were Not Folded" box checked. Looking at this information can be reassuring that you're not all that bad at poker, as well as keeping you grounded if you're running unsustainably hot. Playing at the microlimits (his data is from 5/10+), you may be able to sustain somewhat higher W$@SD percentages with your various hands, since you'll get to showdown more often with people who are more willing to show down losing hands, but they probably won't be all that much higher in the long term.

Win rate and standard deviation: Well, I guess I'll put something in here about win rate. It's simultaneously the most important and the least important stat. Be happy with anything above 0, naturally, but I'll include how to calculate with what confidence you know you are a winning player. This applies to all poker, not just 6 max, and it has been covered elsewhere, but I'm including it here for completeness. First, get your standard deviation per 100 hands from the Session Notes tab ---> More Detail. Divide that value by sqrt(N/100), the square root of the number of hands you've played divided by 100. That gives you the uncertainty (standard error) of your win rate, i.e., the accuracy to which you know your win rate after having played this many hands. As you can tell, it'll take quite a while to converge to within even as much as 0.1. Anyway, divide your current win rate by your uncertainty. This result, which I'll call Z, can be taken to a normal distribution table, like this one. Enter your Z into the "Below" box, and that's the probability you're actually a winning player. For the lazy ones among us, here are the cliff notes: Z = 1, there's an 84% chance you're a winning player, Z = 2, 98%, Z = 3, 99.999%, and Z = -1, 16%. As you can see from those numbers and a little figuring on your own with your standard deviation, it doesn't take all that many hands to know for near sure that you're a winning player. It should be equally apparent, however, that it's relatively likely for a winning 2+2er to have a negative Z over a reasonable stretch of hands.

PT stats

2009-09-16T07:51:00.001-07:00

It is very important to understand that stats are sometimes cause and often effect.. effect of the cards that are dealt, effect of your table selection, and effect of your reads and opponents actions. Stats can help identify major leaks, but more often than not, if you are near the "expected" range, you will find more value in posting hands rather than wading through your stats with a fine toothed comb.

Playing many hands is very important before you begin to analyze any of the following stats. Some stats begin to converge fairly quickly (VPIP may be somewhat representative after 1000 hands) while other stats take a very long time to be meaningful (50K - 100K minimum to begin to look at your winrate). Often your style has changed by the time a stat converges to a meaningful number. If you feel as though you must post a stat post, it is strongly recommended that you have at least a 10K hand sample size. Until you reach 10K hands, your stats will often vary too much to put much weight on them. Use the following guide to track your progress and stat fluctuations relative to the typical ranges of these stats. The following ranges are provided for 10 player ring games at the micro level, but will remain fairly consistent as you move up.

VPIP: voluntarily put $ in pot (%). There is no sweet spot for this number, but the typical range is between 15 and 20. A few posters manage with sub-15 VPIP's and a few posters manage with VPIP's in the low 20's. As you move up, this number will often drop a point or two. Your VPIP will not be uniform across all positions. You should generally be tighter in EP than in LP.

PFR: preflop raise (%). The typical range is 7-10. A few posters exceed 10, but many posters begin their first 10K hands at or below 7. Some suggest that PFR should be half your VPIP, but that's an effectual coincidence and should not be your goal. If you only have a VPIP of 13 or 14, you will still often have the same PFR of 8-9 as someone with a higher VPIP. Your PFR will often be higher in LP than in EP.

VPIP from SB: typical range 25-35. This stat varies greatly by your table selection. If you typically play at passive games, you can expect this to be on the higher end. If you are in aggressive games, it will be lower. If its much lower than 25, you are missing out on a few profitable situations for the partial price. If its much higher than 35, you are probably playing too often and underestimating the difficulties of playing out of position postflop. Consult a starting hand chart for more information.

Saw flop all hands: This is an effect stat of your VPIP's and your table selection. It is often about 5% higher than your VPIP.

Steal defense: At the micro limits, this situation occurs very rarely and you will generally not have a significant sample size even after playing 20K hands. It is much better to focus on specific hands for defending situations as its often highly opponent dependent.

Attempt to steal: This situation occurs a bit more frequently than steal defense, but still it will not be too common until you hit the higher end of the micro limits. This number will often be in the mid-upper 30's, but will vary depending on your table selection and overall aggressiveness.

WSD: went to showdown. This number typical falls into the 28-32 range, but varies by your style. It is helpful in identifying potentially major leaks and too high a number often represents overly loose play on the big streets. Too low a number often represents a "fit or fold" mentality where you give up on too many profitable situations by ignoring the pot size.

WSF: won $ when saw flop. By coincidence, this number also falls into the 28-32 range. It is mostly an effect stat. If it is very high (35+) you may be running well. A number below 28 may indicate a problem with protecting your vulnerable hands or folding too many winners. Like many stats, a specific number does not indicate a specific problem, only that there may be one and you should be posting hands where you had difficult postflop decisions.

W$SD: won $ at showdown. Varies between 50-58. Below 50 often indicates that you are seeing too many showdowns while a number which is too high may indicate that you are folding too many winners. In limit Holdem, a pot is often quite large on the end, thus you often need to be quite sure that you don't have the best hand to make folding on the end correct.

FRB: folded to river bet. Varies between 40-55. This stat is pointless to analyze by itself. In combination with WSD or W$SD, it may indicate a problem of folding too much on the end (or not enough). As long as its not incredibly low or high, there are better ways to spend your time.

AF: aggression factor. This is an arbitrary number representing the relative frequency of which you are the aggressor on each street. The numbers vary greatly by your style and posting specific hands is generally better to determine if your aggressiveness is appropriate. VPIP/PFR account for your preflop aggression, so generally ignore AF - PF. Your postflop aggression will typically be around 2 - 3 on each postflop street. The flop is often higher than the turn and river, often exceeding 3.0. A micro posters overall AF (not including PF) will typically be in the 2.0 - 3.0 range. Some posters report success with overall AF's over 3, but nearly none have AF's under 2. This is not a stat worth overanalyzing unless it is woefully low or maniacally high.

when folds (%): This is not a stat worth overanalyzing as its speaks nothing of the appropriateness of your actions. Typical numbers may look something like this, but the range of "appropriate" numbers could be quite wide. (no fold: 12 _ PF: 75 _ flop: 8 _ turn: 3 _ river: 2).

check-raises: This is often in the 1% to 2% range of all possible actions. It is not worth analyzing this stat to decide if you are "check raising enough". Post hands to do that.

Win-rate: The number everyone is concerned about and the number we can do nothing about. Be happy with anything above 0 BB / 100 hands. The measure used is big bets per 100 hands. This accounts for multi-tabling and limit differences whereas $/hr gives you no real indication of success. Don't fret with something below 0 BB/100 if you have a small sample size. Variance and downswings happen and they can be quite large (200+ BB losses) and extend over a long period of time (10K+ hands). Your winrate will decrease as you move up in limits. Since its asked all the time, a 3 BB/100 winrate at .50/1.00 (online) is often regarded as great. 6 BB/100 is probably unsustainable. Once you reach 2/4 (online), 2 BB/100 is great for the long term and 4 BB/100 may be unsustainable. Also, you will be a loser from the blinds. The blind commitment is too great to overcome by solid play.

Standard Deviation / 100: This varies by your style, but 14-18 seems to be the typical range.

Summary: Remember, these stats speak nothing of the appropriateness of your actions, but primarily indicate the frequency of your actions (VPIP, PFR, etc). Generally lead towards a happy range for most of these numbers, but having good stats and good results are very different things. Stats are useful in identifying the existence of major leaks, but often leave you in a guessing game in determining where those leaks may reside. You will have to post hands or read materials to fix your leaks.

Poker Tracker

2009-09-15T15:23:00.001-07:00

Using Poker Tracker (basic guide) - WillisNYC

1. Do you have sufficient preflop aggression? To answer this question, open up your ring game statistics and go to the "position stats" page. For each position other than the small blind, divide the "PF Raise %" by the "Vol. Put $ In Pot." If you get a number smaller than 0.5, you're not aggressive enough out of that position. See, aggression is a relative term; it should be a function of your level of looseness. You can be a consistently winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 12%, and you can be a consistently winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 30%, but only if you are sufficiently aggressive. My general guideline is that you should raise at least half the hands you play, from every position on the table.

2. Are you positionally aware? Positional awareness means that you understand Ed Miller's comment when he said:
Quote:

"Total all the dollars you've ever bet playing poker. The large majority of those dollars should have been bet from late position. Only a small percentage of your total handle should have been bet from up front."

To test this, go to the Position Stats and look down the list of VPIP from Button to UTG. You should see that VPIP steadily dropping the farther you get from the button. I'd love to see my button VPIP at double my UTG VPIP, but if my Button VPIP is at least 50% larger than my UTG VPIP, I'm happy with the situation.

3. How's my stealing? To check on your performance when trying a blind steal, go to the General Info. tab. Where it says "Att. To Steal Blinds" I'd like to see that number at LEAST 20%. (Personally, I like mine to be over 30%, but I'm very aggressive in these situations. If you're trying to steal the blinds less than 20% of the time, you're leaving lots of money on the table.) Now click on "Filters..." and under "Chance to Steal Blinds" click "Chance to Steal & Raised." Select OK and look at the numbers. This shows every time you've tried to steal the blinds, and how the attempt turned out for you. Under "Totals" see the "BB/Hand" statistic. That shows your per-hand winrate on blind steals. If you multiply this number by 100, it should be at least double your "PTBB/100" average winrate. If it's much less than that and you have a decent sample size, you have a hole in your game when it comes to blind stealing. This should be an exceedingly profitable thing to do when you try it; if it's not, you need to work on your strategy.

4. Defending the blinds. Click on "Turn Filter Off," and then click on "Filters..." again. Under "Blind Status" click on "Either Blind." Now under "Vol. Put $ In Pot" click on "Put Money In." This shows you if you're bleeding money out of the blinds. A "BB/Hand" of about -0.375 would indicate that you were no better off putting money into the pot than if you had folded. If your "BB/Hand" is larger than that, then you typically win back some of your blind money when you put money into the pot from the blinds. That's all you can really hope for. If you click on "Filters..." again and go under "Steal Attempted Against Your Blind" and click on "Steal Attempted." After you click "OK" you'll now see how you did when you chose to defend against a blind steal. Again, the magic number is for your "BB/Hand" to be bigger than -0.375; that means you're making back some of your blinds when you try to defend against a steal. If either of these numbers is lower than -0.375, you'd lose less money by always folding rather than doing what you're doing.

5. Heads-up play. Click on “Turn Filter Off,” then click on “Filters…” again. Under “Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” change the range from “0 to 10 players” to “2 to 2 players.” Hit “OK” and see what comes up. This shows you how you've done when you were heads-up preflop, but a flop was dealt. See how you've done in these situations. If things look OK, go back to “Filters…” and under “Pre-flop Raise” select “No Raise.” This will show you how you've done when you didn't raise preflop, but the hand was heads-up on the flop (this includes pure limping and when someone ELSE raised preflop, but not when you were the preflop raiser). Is this number positive? If not, it could be an indicator that you have trouble when you are not the aggressor preflop, especially without padding in the pot.

6. Multiway pots. Clear the filter and go back under filters. Change “Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” to “3 to 10 players.” This shows you how you do in multiway pots. If things look good, go back and select “No Raise” under “Pre-flop Raise.” Is it still positive? If so, you're selecting good times to play/limp multiway pots, and you're playing them well postflop.

7. Pocket pairs. Under “Filters…” change the “Type of Hole Cards” to “Pairs.” This will show you how you generally play and perform with pocket pairs. Your Total VPIP with these should be EXTREMELY high; unless you play at highly unusual tables, I'd be surprised to see this number below 85%. Pocket pairs make extremely powerful hands that are extremely well-hidden; if you're not playing them almost all the time, you're leaving money on the table. Also, your Total PFR% with these hands should be rather high -- at least 1/3 of your VPIP, if not 1/2. Some people have this number higher still, and I don't have a problem with that, especially at short-handed tables. If you have enough hands, I'd expect every one of these lines to be positive, and reasonably significantly so. If you have any glaringly negative numbers, especially AA-88, it may indicate bad play. Look over individual hands where you lose lots of money and see if you played too timidly early in the hand, or if you went too far unimproved in the face of resistance. Also, look at the hands where you won to see if you played too timidly, or if you routinely forced weaker hands out when you should have been milking them for profits.

8. Suited connectors. Under “Filters…” change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Suited Connectors.” I'm much less likely to play suited connectors than pocket pairs, but some people play them religiously. As a result, I don't really have a good suggestion as to how high your VPIP or PFR should be. However, your BB/hand should be positive; if it's not, you're probably not playing your suited connectors well. Remember: these hands play best in a multiway, unraised pot, or as a steal move. In the “Filters…” change “Vol. Put $ In Pot” to “Cold-Called.” When you hit OK, you should have almost no entries to view. Of the times you cold-called, you should be able to come up with a specific explanation for why you did so in each and every one of them. Review the hand histories; if you can't come up with a really good reason why you thought it better to cold-call, rather than raise or fold, you need to rethink your suited connector strategy. Good explanations: the raise was very small, villain is passive post-flop, I had position on villain, villain and I are both extremely deep-stacked, villain is incredibly aggressive preflop, my suited connectors are particularly strong, there are several cold-callers in front of me, etc. I'm not saying you shouldn't ever cold-call with suited connectors; rather, I'm saying you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY do so. Your default play here should be to fold weak suited connectors and reraise strong ones.

9. Unsuited connectors. Clear the filter and then go back into it. Change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Off-Suited Connectors.” Your VPIP for these hands should be noticeably smaller than your VPIP for suited connectors. Check your winrate and make sure it's positive. Filter for cold-calling and see if you had good reasons for doing so, keeping in mind that the reasons need to be even stronger than for suited connectors.

10. Postflop aggression. Clear the filter. Select the “More Detail…” button above the “Filters…” button. Scroll down. There is a section marked “First Action on Flop After A Pre-flop Raise.” This shows your likelihood of continuation betting. If you add Bet and Raise, the total should be at least 40%. If it's not, you're probably giving up too soon on your good hands, and that will cost you money in the long run. Remember: people who cold-call a preflop bet are often in fit-or-fold mode. If you don't bet, you don't give them a chance to fold. The pot is already decent-sized, and there's no reason to give some donk a free look at a turn card that could sink you. If you raised preflop, you need a good reason NOT to raise the flop. Continuation betting should be your default play. Scroll down a bit farther to “Aggression Factor.” Your total aggression factor should be at LEAST 2. No-limit is not a game where you can call frequently and turn a profit. You should always be looking to see if you can raise or fold; only if you have a good reason why you CANNOT raise or fold should you call. As a result, calling should be an infrequent occurrence in your play, which gives you a large aggression factor.

11. Check-raising. Some people never check-raise; others check-raise infrequently. I personally like to check-raise at least once in awhile; 1% would be fine, 0.5% would be acceptable. The goal of the check-raise is to remind your opponents that just because you checked does NOT mean that you don't have a hand. However, circumstances need to be very specific for a check-raise to be appropriate. Typically, I check-raise on the flop when OOP against a preflop raiser, or on the turn when OOP against a flop bettor/raiser who was clearly not on a draw (uncoordinated flop). If you are check raising much more than 2% of the time, you're being entirely too tricky for a SSNL table, and straightforward play would probably be more profitable for you.

Useful Poker Tracker article

2009-09-15T15:15:00.000-07:00

This article will concentrate on the six statistics that are most important to the decisions that you make while playing a ring game. We will go through each of these statistics in detail, explaining where those numbers lie for various types of players and how to use those numbers against them in your decision making process. Those numbers are VP$IP, PFR%, AF, WSD%, W$ASD% and Check Raise%. (Voluntarily Put Dollars In the Pot percentage, PreFlop Raise percentage, Aggression Factor, Went to ShowDown percentage, Won Dollars At Show Down percentage and Check Raise percentage respectively.)

VP$IP and PFR along with AF are the three keys to understanding what kind of player that you are dealing with. The other numbers help you in your decision processes in certain circumstances, but these first three numbers define who you are up against and how they are playing. Also for the purposes of this article, whenever I say raise or bet, I mean a REAL NL type raise or bet which means at least ½ and usually ¾ up to a pot size bet. Minimum bets or 2x raises are not real NL raises and should be considered to be poor plays made by ignorant players until they prove otherwise. The 2x raise or minimum bet is usually the first clue alerting me that I am facing an inexperienced NL player.

VP$IP tells you how often your opponent is voluntarily putting money in the pot. Thus limping from the big blind is not included in this percentage. A true rock who only plays top ten hands will have a VP$IP of 10% or less. This kind of player is very rare to find in low level NL games. (Less than 1% of my database) A player with VP$IP of 10 would be VERY tight. He would only be playing pairs of AA- 66, AK, AQ and maybe AJ and KQ. He MIGHT play AJ or AT or KJ and maybe the other pocket pairs.
It becomes very easy to put this guy on a hand and remember these stats are valid when he plays any hand where he has to put money in the pot.

As the VP$IP goes higher, it becomes more difficult to determine what hands your opponents are playing. However examining what they could be playing is helpful.
A VP$IP of 10-20 is a more common range where you will find about 15% of your opponents and is still considered tight. These players will be playing top ten hands, plus perhaps any ace and small pocket pairs. His hand mix could include broadway hands which are any hands that add up to 20 such as TJ and AT. It is unlikely that an opponent with this, low VP$IP will be playing suited connectors below JT or hands like K9. However you cannot entirely rule out suited connectors if this player is not playing broadway hands or Ax. Judgment and observation must still be taken into consideration, even with all this information at your fingertips.
The next range of hands extends from 20-30% VP$IP and encompasses approximately 25% of players. Players in this range will most likely play all the above hands plus suited connectors down to 56 or so and most aces from A8 on up. He may also play some gapped connectors and probably all small pairs. Broadway hands are most likely on this players starting menu as well. It is no longer easy to put this player on a hand based on just VP$IP.

Nearly 25% of players will have a VP$IP of 30-40%. This is where the last of the players who show some semblance of hand selection reside. True LAG players will have VP$IP in this range. LAGs will play all the hands listed above, plus any two cards if they are first to act on the cutoff or the button. It is VERY hard to put this player on a hand. LAGs and non lags will play gapped, suited connectors and maybe just two connected or one gapped non suited cards.

Beyond 40% VP$IP is the level where your opponents are exercising very little hand selection. If he has a VPI$IP between 40 and 50, any two suited cards are probably playable in addition to all the above hands. Anything over 50% and this player should be on your fish list and you should follow him from table to table as he gives money away hand over fist. Surprisingly, a little over 18% of my database has people who play over 50% of hands and an additional 15% who play between 40-50. If one of these guys buys in for the max and rebuys when busted, or if he gets lucky and wins some pots, put them on your buddy list if your site has one and follow them from table to table. Truly, they are valuable enough that you should want to do this. You may even want to fire up your incognito name on the site, just so you can poach these fish after they start to notice that you and every other shark is following them around. Sadly, they usually disappear as soon as they tire of constantly replenishing their bankroll. If you find such a fish it is best to hunt him this week, because he probably won't be here next week.

VP$IP is valuable but preflop raise percentage can allow you to truly narrow in on what hands your opponent is playing for a raise. A rock and some other styles may well have a PFR of 3% or less! These super tight creatures fill up a full 20% of my database! These special creatures are invaluable since this low number tells you that they are ONLY raising with AA, KK QQ, and AK. How valuable is it to be able to narrow your opponent down to these very few hands? Decision making against these guys is VERY easy when they come in for a raise! Other than pocket pairs when the 8-1 rule is met, it is horribly negative EV to call a raise against these guys. I don't even think about it if I don't have a pocket pair!

The next band of raising percentages goes from 3-10% PFR. Opponents in this range are only raising with top ten hands and maybe AQ or KQ if they are first to act and their PFR is close to 10%. MAYBE they raise with a hand as low as a Broadway hand or any ace if they are on the button and first to act. Quite often opponents with a PFR of 10 or less will NOT even do that much! IF their PFR is 7 or less they are not raising in late position with anything less than a top ten hand probably 99% of the time! This is great information and guess what? Almost 35% of your opponents will raise with this percentage of hands! Your post flop decision making should be fairly easy when playing this type of player.

The next band of raisers goes from 10-20% PFR and it becomes more difficult to put these players on a hand. A player with 17-20% PFR is raising with top ten hands and most likely all the following hands when there is no action ahead of him and is in middle to late position: Broadway hands, suited connectors and aces down to A8. He may also be raising with small pairs when in late position.

Anything beyond 20% PFR and it becomes VERY difficult, if not impossible to put him on a hand. A true LAG will play 25% of his hands for a raise and will be raising on the button and sometimes the cutoff with ANYTHING if there is no action ahead of him.
However, when players are raising this high percentage of hands, we have many options available to us. Reraising them with a top ten hand is certainly advisable. It is also a winning play to reraise them or call with marginal hands because you know they are often raising with junk! If you have position against this type of player, it can be profitable to call their preflop raise with any marginal hand. Then call their continuation bet and when they check on 4th, bet out on the turn and you will take down the pot well over 50% of the time because 33% of the time they have completely missed the flop and will run at the first sign of real resistance. This is a great example of playing the player, not the cards since it does not matter what you have!

Anyone raising with more than 30% of his hands is a true maniac which you can exploit via the above methods with even more confidence, because his raising percentage is too high to be a successful winning style. Thus you can be confident that you are playing a LAG in training or a total donk.

Aggression Factor or AF determines how aggressive your opponents are. AF is determined by dividing the number of times you raise or bet by the number of times that you call. This factor tells a lot about your opponent. An aggression factor under 1 is considered to be very weak and you can generally bully this type of opponent almost endlessly. Unless he is a calling station, you can bet against him at will and he will fold unless he holds at least top pair and probably top kicker to go with it. When discussing Went to ShowDown percentage I will tell you how to make sure he is not the calling station variety that foils this betting strategy.
Most opponents AF resides in the 1 to 2 range. These players usually are straightforward ABC poker players who bet when they have a hand, check when they do not and call when they have a draw. These guys are the definition of plain vanilla and relatively easy to play against. If you were the preflop raiser and this guy is check raising you or betting the turn when you check, run for the hills because he is screaming out that he has a set or another strong made hand.

Lastly, you have true aggressives, aggros as some would call them. They have aggression factors above 2 and running as high as 5. These guys make continuation bets above 50% of the time. They bet flushes and open ended draws. They bet when last to act and everyone else has checked. They bet top pair with low kickers if they are first to act in a pot where everyone has limped. They will also reraise just to find out if you ‘really' have a hand or to try to get a free card for their flush draw. Playing against them is tricky if you don't have the nuts. However if their AF is 3 or above you can profitably reraise them in many circumstances since these guys only understand a swift punch in the nose. Reraising them with top pair or better is a fine way to find out where you are at. The number of times that they fold will far outnumber the times that they hit back at you when you reraise them.

Calling them down with 2nd pair or a pocket pair is a tactic that can be used successfully against them as well. Care must be taken when doing this though, since they can sometimes hit a hand and make you pay for it expensively if you call to the river. Addtionally, if you make your hand against this type of player, you can often count on him to bet your hand for you. If you are fortunate enough to flop the nuts, this is the opponent most likely to bluff his entire stack off to you as you call him down. Be aware though, that many aggros are attuned to these situations and tend to slow down if the board is scary or if you have never called in any other situation previously. These guys win by becoming great post flop players and readers so you must treat them with care.

In some Poker Tracker literature out there, I have seen claims that AF higher than 3 is too high and bordering on maniacal. On the contrary, I know many successful players with AF in the 3-5 range and mine hovers around 4.5. Some of these players have low PFR percentages (5% or less) and that is part of the reason that their AF is so high. You have to look out especially carefully for these guys because they are coming at you with AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK and nothing else. Thus you have to begin to look at the numbers in combination in order to understand how to treat them. If your opponent has an AF of 4.5 and his PFR percentage is 25%, then you can treat him very differently from the opponent with a PFR of 5%.

The last three categories of numbers that I recommend you looking at for PT are all numbers that mean something when looked at when in combination with the numbers above. The WSD% tells you how often an opponent goes to the river. This number means little without looking at the other statistics of the player in question. This key stat in combination with the W$ASD% is how you identify your calling stations at the table.

The calling stations will go to showdown (WSD%) over 30% and they will be losing at the showdown more than 55% of the time. (W$ASD 45% or less) Most calling stations will have VP$IP over 30%, WSD% over 30% and W$ASD% of less than 45%. When all these three conditions are met and you have top pair, you can easily bet all the way to the river with confidence. Conversely he is the last guy on the table you want to try to bluff. That is what he lives for, so don't give him the thrill of picking off your bluffs.

Winning players generally have W$ASD% higher than 45%. If a player on your table has at least 100 hands logged and his W$ASD% is lower than 45%, his other stats will probably illuminate his problems. High VP$IP of over 40% might be one, or WSD% of over 30% might be another. A guy with all these factors should be painted with a big fat guppy note and hunted down relentlessly until he gives up every last dollar on the site that he dares to put on the table.

The last category of interest is the check raise percentage. Many aggros use this tactic too much and can be detected by observing this statistic. A good/great player will normally have a check raise percentage of .5 to 1.5%. Anything over 2 and there is a very good chance that your opponent who has an AF of 3 or more is abusing this tactic.

Since he is often using the tactic as a bluff or semi bluff, this opponent is a great target for a reraise to send him reeling and folding in shame. Just remember to make the reraise a strong 3x one or he may call and outplay you on later streets. I find that certain tournament players tend to be among the worst offenders of this tactic. PT helps me identify them and a timely reraise often neuters their stacks.

TAG playbook

2009-08-05T07:11:00.000-07:00

From Blinders

I don't think too much has been written on this topic, though it has been touched upon by various authors to some extent. I will do my best to explain my thoughts on the matter, and through comments and follow-up posts, I may be able to make some sense out of what I am trying to explain here.

First of all, I play a pretty low variance form of NL Holdem cash. It was not always this way, but my game has evolved to where variance has been pretty much minimized. This is a good thing in some ways, and bad in others. Playing a low variance style minimizes the swings in bankroll, and keeps you from having lengthy losing streaks that can mess with your confidence. This is a huge benefit. The negative in playing this way, is that it is not the way to fully maximize profit at the tables. I could make more per hour by allowing more variance into my game, but as a result I would have to deal with the bankroll swings that come along for the ride. My game has been criticized many a time, because of my ubertightness. I usually shake this off, because I know that the way I play works and is solidly profitable. The one criticism that has stayed with me, though came from F-train a while back when reviewing some statistics that I had posted. I will summarize what he said (and try to put his exact words here later). He basically said that my post flop aggression was off the chart, and that because of this I was leaving money on the table. I would need to learn how to go deeper into the board (past the flop), and because of this learn how to make some huge laydowns if I wanted to further improve my game. He has a very valid point here, but would it really be worth it?

So before I start lets just talk about the basics of variance. Some charts would be helpful here, but I will try to explain in a way the mathematically inclined will understand. Variance in it's simplest form could be represented by a Sine wave. It goes up and down around break-even at some amplitude, but over time the area under the curve goes to zero (overtime variance washes away). In the real world variance is random and chaotic, but still sums to zero overtime like a simple Sine wave does. A high variance game would have high amplitude in this signal. A low variance game would have low amplitude. The variance signal is then overlaid on your bankroll growth (Profit/Loss) signal. Imagine this as a straight line that slopes up if you are a winning player, or slopes down if you are a losing player. The rate at which you win or lose determines the slope of the line. So your overall bankroll growth is a combination of the variance signal and profit/loss signal. In general, the variance signal has a much, much higher amplitude and tends to drown out the profit/loss signal over short periods of time. Only over long periods of time (when variance washes away), can you see the underlying profit/loss trend.

For a winning player, variance is what makes it possible to lose. Imagine if the pot went to the person mathematically ahead when the money went in (no suckouts allowed), and when hand ranges came in to play the winner got their mathematical equity in the pot. Variance would be pretty much eliminated and winning players would win all sessions that they played in. Losing players would lose all sessions that they played in. Variance is what allows losing players to have winning sessions. Because of the way the human mind works, the losing player selectively remembers the winning sessions, and feels he is better that he really is. Variance keeps the fish coming back so it is a good thing. But, if you are a winning player, does a high level of variance really help. Possibly not. If you can minimize the variance, you can maximize the percentage of sessions that you win, and as a result potentially maximize your enjoyment and confidence in the game. For a losing player the opposite is true. Maximizing variance maximizes their chances that a session will be a winner. Wild play is actually better for a losing player given that the other lower variance choice is neutral on profit/loss. A losing player has no reason to play a low variance style. A winning player does in a way. They can use their profitability to outweigh a low variance signal and obtain much more consistent results.

So what makes one style high variance and one style low variance? Before I get into that, I will talk about how to recognize what type of style you or your opponents are playing. I have played cash games for a long time. I typically do not run my stack north of 2x my buy-in. I rarely "rack-out" (get stacked) in cash games. So I am minimizing my losses and minimizing my wins at the same time. I am attenuating the variance signal in some way. When my good friend smokkee started dabbling in cash games (when he had only been playing for several months), I would see him routinely sitting with 3x, 4x, 5x the buy-in. Levels that I have never got to in a cash game, he was regularly achieving. Of course he was getting stacked left and right as well. He was playing a very high variance form of cash game. I would put lucko, wes, Fuel55 and doubleas in the same category. They play a high variance (and profitable) cash game style. So the signs in general, are how easy and often to you get up to 3x or 4x your buy-in in a cash game, and how often are you reloading your chips. Most people play a high variance style. Nearly all new NL cash game players play a high variance style. NL is much higher variance than limit (obviously).

So now I will try to explain the aspects of a low variance playing style below:

1) Play very tight preflop. The TAG style is much lower variance than the LAG style. TAGs play fewer hands and get into fewer unique situations as a result. LAGs play more hands and push slimmer edges post flop as a result, increasing the variance.

2) Multitable lower limits vs. single table higher limits . If you play 3 or 4 tables at a time, your variance is reduced because you are getting much more hands in to wash it away. If you get stacked on one table, your winnings from the others will offset this. If you play a single table at a higher level for the same profit potential, variance is magnified by 3x to 4x vs. multitabling.

3) Don't limp from early with hands that you normally will not call a raise with. Limp early with small to medium pairs, but not with medium suited connectors. You can usually call the raise with the pair, but not with the suited connectors. Sometimes you will limp with suited connectors, get raised, get some callers, and feel you are priced in for a flop. This is a very high variance play, as it is pretty unlikely you will hit the flop hard. You might also lose a huge pot to a higher flush when you do hit. Suited connectors in general are a high variance starting hand.

4) Don't call big raises with middle pocket pairs preflop. It is ok to call a reasonable raise with a small pair preflop (3x-4x). Be careful when it is raised more than this. Use the rule of 10 (or better yet rule of 15) to see if your opponent's stack, and yours are big enough to "set mine". Avoid the borderline situations by folding, and look for situations that have great implied odds. Playing a pocket pair for a big raise with implied odds barely there is high variance.

5) Don't raise small to medium pocket pairs from early or middle position (full ring). It is best to limp/call these hands to minimize variance. Also if you don't hit your set, don't get too crazy post flop. Folding to pressure when you miss your set minimizes variance. Trying to play on with overs on board when you have a middle pair is high variance. You will remember the massive pots that you won when raising pairs and hitting a set, or calling a big raise and hitting, but the most profit is made when you limp multiway and hit over the long term.

6) Be aggressive on the flop. Take your stabs at the pot early, and find out where you are at early before the pot gets too big. Checking, betting, raising, and folding on the flop are low variance. Calling the flop is high variance (in general).

7) Don't be overly aggressive without a made hand on later streets. Double and triple barreled bluffs are high variance. Try more single barreled bluffs, and less of the double and triple barreled types to minimize variance.

8) Don't make heroic calls on the river. When you call the river in NL you should be pretty sure you are ahead. Ace high calls on the river are high variance. Look for a better spot. Call when you pretty much know you have it, or are at least priced in.

9) Don't get cute with big pairs preflop. If you look down at AA or KK preflop, and there are a lot of limpers, raise it up pretty big and take it down right there, or at least get heads-up. If someone raises before you act, reraise them enough that you take away there set mining odds, and push the flop if they call. Don't limp ever with these hands preflop if you want to minimize variance. Make a big raise, and eliminate the competition.

10) Learn how to fold TT-QQ and AK preflop. There are times when these hands are obviously beat. Fold them in these situations and look for a better spot. Going to war preflop with these hands is a very high variance play.

11) Don't slow play or float (too much). Slow playing and floating are both high variance plays. Betting your good hands, and folding your junk is low variance. There are times when these plays are correct (for profit reasons), but they will always increase your variance.

12) Semibluff your draws (especially when in position). Draws in general are high variance. If you can control the betting on draws you can lower the variance. Semibluff your draws, and try to take free cards in position, and take pots down uncontested before your draw hits. Manage the pot size when drawing so that most of it goes in after you hit to minimize variance. Calling with draws all the way down is high variance.

13) Learn to make huge laydowns. Probably the most difficult situation you can get in is when you have a good hand, and are facing a ton of pressure. You may need to fold a set, or a straight, or a flush, when it is pretty clear that you are beat. If you can make these folds your variance will be reduced.

14) Choose tables with short stacks present. If you are playing at a table with all full buy-ins, variance is maximized. As the mix goes towards shorter stacks variance (proportional to potential pot sizes) is reduced.

15) Play full ring vs. short handed. Full ring cash games allow you to exploit bigger edges with bigger hands. Short handed the blinds will eat you up if apply this strategy. You have to push smaller edges with more marginal hands short handed, so your variance will be higher accordingly.

16) Play in position. When you are making moves/playing hands in position you can keep your variance lower by having better control of the pot size and betting. When out of position, the variance goes way up because others can exploit your positional disadvantage, and manipulate the pot size beyond your control.

This is what I have so far and they are not in any particular order. I am sure there are many other ways that I have missed. Let me know if you can think of anything, or if you think I am way off in what I am saying. I would say that most NL cash game players should go through stages. Initially they will play high variance. Then their variance will come down a bit as they become better. The better players will allow more variance back in their games if it means more profit. I am not sure if I am ready to do this yet, but I will be a little stuck in my win rates until I am.

someone hates stars worse than me

2009-07-11T15:04:00.001-07:00

JustUnreal: you honest dude, gle
JustUnreal: glue
JustUnreal: you my witness
JustUnreal: site is ****ing me in the ***
Dealer: Game #30352612258: mjg06d wins pot ($2.50)
Dealer: Game #30352652325: DesertFalcon wins pot ($3)
Dealer: JustUnreal, it's your turn. You have 15 seconds to act
JustUnreal: omg
Dealer: Game #30352689338: topgun2005 wins pot ($3)
JustUnreal: I had K-K in pocket
JustUnreal: site ****ed me in the *** again

Blinders Baseball Betting System

2009-07-09T11:33:00.000-07:00

The System by Blinders

I have been a pretty big sports better most of my life. Most of the time, I analyze the match-ups, and come to a solid decision on what side to bet based on my sports knowledge. I have also employed betting "systems" in the past. One of the betting systems that I used in the past was for baseball, and it worked really well. I have not used this system in about 15 years, but I see no reason why it would not continue to work. Since IMO the system continues to work, yet I have not chosen to use it in a long time I have no problem revealing it here in detail, for someone who wants to take advantage of it. The system is basically an arbitrage system that takes advantage of the fact that Baseball is thinly bet compared to other sports, and has a very low house edge. The edge from arbitrage can easily out way the house edge, and lead to long term profits for the user of the system. Once you have convinced yourself statistically that the system works, you can ramp up the amounts you are betting and make some significant money on it. When I was last using the system I was betting between 2k to 5k a day as an unemployed UNLV student.

Baseball Betting

There are three main ways to bet on baseball. There is the money line which is a bet on who will win the game. There is the over/under line on what the total combined score will be. There is also a line called the "Run Line" which is a line with the favorite -1/2 run (The favorite to win by 2 runs or more). The system exploits the information from the over/under to find arbitrage opportunities between the Run Line and the Money Line. Arbitrage is simply a way of exploiting inefficient markets. The baseball betting market is inefficient because it is thinly traded. An example of arbitrage would be buying goods in the United States, transporting them to Europe and reselling at higher European prices. If the market is inefficient allowing for price disparity between two markets, and the cost of transport is less than the price disparity, guaranteed profits can be made. Guaranteed profits can be made betting baseball using arbitrage.

The System

So lets take a hypothetical game like the Yankees vs. the Red Sox. Lets say that Beckett is pitching for Boston and Boston is the favorite. The money line might be -145 (bet $145 to win $100) for Boston, and +140 (bet $100 to win $140) for the New York. If the house can get equal money laid on both sides they make a small profit by taking in $145 for every $140 that they pay out. The run line for this same game would be something like -145 for N.Y., and +140 for Boston. While Boston is favored to win the game outright, they are not favored to win the game by two or more runs. In this case, they are the underdog on the run line. Lets also say that the over under for this game is 10 runs. In nearly all cases the favorite on the money line is the dog on the run line unless they are huge favorites. The system is based on the fact that Boston will not win this game by exactly one run more than one in five times. I take $100 and bet it on Boston to win the game (money line), and $100 and bet it on N.Y. to either win the game, or lose by less than one run (run line). So I am betting $200 and will get back $240 if Boston does not win by exactly one run. As long as this happens less that one in five times I will collect $200 in profit before I lose both sides, and lose $200. I am looking for an average win of at least $40 in this case, so you shop sports books for lines like this. You also shop multiple sports books to find the best possible lines for each side. Because baseball is thinly bet, the lines are often different at different sports books. You identify the games you are interested in, and find the best lines to make your bets against. A lot of the time you will be able to do better than a $40 average win on a $200 in total bets if you shop around, but that is the minimum acceptable amount.

Before I started the using the system, I studied it against past games for several months to verify that it worked. What I found is that it works for American League games and was close to break even for National League games. Rockies home games were an exception to the rule for the National league. I also looked at the correlation between the over/under line, and the success of the system. I found that the higher the over/under on the games selected, the more successful and profitable the system is. All of this makes perfect sense. High scoring American League games are less likely to be decided by one run, while low scoring National league games, where they like to manufacture runs, are more likely to be one run affairs. So you can use the over/under line as a first screen to select American League games, and then make sure you can earn at least $40 on average based on a $200 successful bet. The higher the over/under, and the higher you can make on average per success helps to increase your profitability. In practice I like to use the system on about 5 games each day. That way you either made a nice chunk of change if everything works out, or you will break even if one of the five games is a one run game won by the favorite. The disaster scenario is losing two of the games, but I think that was so rare it only happened to me once or twice as long as I used it.

You will end up making huge bets with the system, and winning smaller amounts, but that is fine. You will be a high volume player, so you may be able to get rakeback or deposit bonuses at online sportsbooks while using the system. Back before the UIGEA when I was sports book bonus whoring it was not baseball season, so I was using football. This system would have cleared bonus requirements faster than you could blink, so there is some additional money to made there as well. Another great thing about this system, is it is purely analytic. You don't need to know anything about baseball to profit from it. Let me know if you have any questions or plan on trying it out.

Vegas Trip Advice

2009-05-19T11:59:00.000-07:00

Poker From The Rail

Planning your summer Vegas trip

by “Tuscaloosa” Johnny Kampis

Whether you are a Vegas virgin considering your first trip to Sin City or a grizzled WSOP veteran preparing for yet another six to seven-week slough at the Rio you should find some useful information in my guide to planning your trip to Vegas and the WSOP.

Below are some helpful hints that I hope will enable you to save time and/or money as you make your Vegas planning for June and July. This is the best year since I’ve been regularly traveling in the summer for the WSOP for vacation discounts in Vegas.
Keep checking back here at Full Tilt’s Poker from the Rail in the coming weeks in the run-up to the granddaddy of poker tournaments as I bring you a series of articles highlighting the ins and outs of summer in Vegas, from WSOP orientation, to the must see sights, and the other tournaments in town you may want to consider during your stay.

Flights

Step one is deciding on how to get there. For most of us that means airlines. Reports are that average airfares are down 10 to 20 percent from last summer, thanks to the slumping economy and dropping gas prices. A quick look through the various online travel sites proves that theory out as many cross country flights can be had on many summer days for as low as $200-$250 round trip to Vegas.

There are ways to save even more on airfare. First, go to Southwest.com and download its Ding program. This will allow you to view Southwest’s daily specials for the departure cities of your choosing. For example, from my home airport of Birmingham, Southwest’s roundtrip fares to Vegas generally run $250-$300 with fees included, but occasionally on Ding those same fares drop to around $200 for the same flights.

The other recommendation I have is to bookmark the site AirfareWatchdog.com. You can search a city and find some really good daily or weekly deals that pop up from time to time, or view the top 50 cheap fares on any given day. Sign up with your email and get daily alerts from the site. In recent months, users got wind of a ridiculous $14 fare on Jet Blue from New York to San Francisco so this site could be well worth your time.

Rooms

Never have I seen room rates in Vegas this cheap. It truly is a bonanza on lodging there this summer as rates are down 30 percent or more at many properties. I found a ridiculous deal through Orbitz in which I paid less than $300 to stay on three and four-star Harrah’s owned mid-Strip properties for 11 nights in June and July.

Here is that deal: You can use the promo code 4ODWR75 to get $75 off a four-night weekday stay (Sunday through Thursday or Monday through Friday). This is some collaboration between Orbitz and Office Depot. In addition, on Orbitz there is a separate promotion at Harrah’s properties that allows you to receive a fourth night free with a three-night stay. I booked the Flamingo June 22-June 26 for $57 and Bally’s June 29-July 3 for $88 using the combined promotions. I sandwiched the Imperial Palace in between with no weekend discount for $152 for three nights. Total: $297.

Deals like this can be found by scouring popular travel discussion forums. I found this deal while looking at the popular 2 + 2 poker forums. (The poster had used the Office Depot promo to book the El Cortez for $12 for four nights.) Try these sites to find deals that may pop up over the next couple of months: LasVegasAdvisor.com, CheapoVegas.com, FatWallet.com and SlickDeals.net.

Another thing to consider before booking your room is the hotel’s location and your transportation situation. If you plan to rent a car then location within a few miles of Rio and the Strip is fine. If you plan to taxi it, then staying any farther than mid-Strip can be cost prohibitive. If you stay at the Rio you are obviously set for travel to the WSOP. The same is true for the Gold Coast, which is next door, and the Palms, which is about a quarter mile west of the Rio on Flamingo.

Cheaper rates for rooms can be found Downtown, but other than the Golden Nugget most properties are of the two-star variety. Also, aside from the Nugget and Binion’s (both of which are running nice summer poker tournament series – more about that in a future article), there are no other good poker rooms Downtown so you will often be traveling to the Rio or the Strip for the juicy poker action. If you rent a car this isn’t much of an issue, but is a major consideration if you are not.

Transportation

You have several options for getting around: taxis, rental cars, buses and hoofing it (NOT recommended, unless in moderation). Let’s look at each in turn.
If you come into town with a fat roll then you can probably afford cabs around town. From much of the Strip to the Rio will cost you around $10-$12 one way. From Downtown to the Rio is about $15-$20. If you plan a lengthy stay the fares will certainly add up.

Alternatively, you can rent a car. Rates are rather reasonable in Las Vegas, as an economy car will only set you back about $25-$30 a day, and having a car will give you a ton of freedom in exploring all parts of the city and beyond. I highly recommend this option.

A third choice is taking the city buses. Fares on the Deuce, the double decker buses that run up and down the Strip and to Downtown are $3 for one ride. A daily pass is available for $7, as is a three-day pass for $15. You can also use these buses to ride from the Strip to the Rio. There are two major negatives to bus travel: one, you have to hoof it to the bus stops, which might be a fair hike, and two, travel by bus is very slow. It can take more than an hour to get from Downtown to the Rio by riding a bus to Caesars Palace, getting off and walking around the corner to the Flamingo stop to get on a second bus to the Rio, for example.

I should also note that there is a free shuttle bus that Harrah’s runs from its namesake Harrah’s casino on the Strip to the Rio and back, which is a viable and obviously very cheap option to travel between the Strip and the Rio. At Harrah’s you board the bus at the bottom of the parking garage and at the Rio you board just outside the buffet entrance, which is to the left from the front of the casino.

Lastly, we have hoofing it. Vegas in the summer is not a pleasant time to spend walking around in the sun as the thermostat pretty well stays above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the daytime and above 90 degrees at night. Granted, the lack of humidity makes conditions more comfortable than they would be at the same temperatures in my neck of the woods in Alabama, but you still feel like your ears and nose are baking in an oven. The distance from Caesars Palace to the Rio may look deceptively shorter than it is – it’s about a mile in reality. I’ve walked it a couple of times during the day and night and I wouldn’t recommend either. At day you bake as the sun shines off the sidewalk and asphalt and at night you worry you’re likely to get robbed as the walk is pretty isolated (because people have enough sense not to try it!) If you plan to do some casino hopping on foot pace yourself by frequently stopping into the highly air conditioned properties on the Strip and hydrate yourself often.

Missing Girl has been found

2009-04-17T08:09:00.000-07:00

She is back home and unharmed.

MISSING 14 YR OLD IN COLORADO

2009-04-15T12:41:00.000-07:00

Arapahoe County, Colorado, please read this post by Frank Frisna about his 14-year old missing niece.

April 15th, 2009
My 14yr old niece is missing...

I was really hoping I would never have to write this here...

My niece Jennifer has been missing since Saturday night. She left here at 3pm to go to a friend's house and was to be home by 8. None of her friends have talked to her since 7pm that night and there is no sign that she ran away. No clothes... no cell phone charger... nothing to suggest that she had any intention of being away that long. She has never been more than an hour or so late and this is beyond her character. There was no trouble here and she was in a good mood when she left.

It took us a few days to get the police to take this seriously since the responding officer on Saturday night had her pigeon holed as a runaway from the start. Thanks to that moron we have lost precious time. Now we have the Colorado Bureau of Investigations involved and they are trying to get phone records quicker than I seem to be able to get them. We would have had them already but CBI needed the Arapahoe County Sheriff to upgrade from runaway to missing. The next step is to get her picture on the local news stations.

I cannot describe the torment we are all going through. My worst nightmare has come true... The idea of seeing her picture on the news is something I don't think I could ever be prepared for. I am going to want to include a reward for any information leading to her safe return. If she is hiding out... it is going to be hard for some 14-15 yr old friend of hers to keep quiet should there be money involved. I have $500 that I can start it with… Thanks to my ongoing medical bills, it is every penny I have to my name right now. If anyone would like to donate the cause, please send via paypal to frankybones@comcast.net - (* should no reward be issued…. monies will be returned.) If I get some of this other cash I waiting on, it will be added.

I have never needed the help of our readers more than now. Please take her pictures and info posted here and send out to your social networks.

For those of you who know me... know these kids are my life. I am the legal guardian of both my niece and nephew. I consider them my children and have dedicated my life to their happiness. I have always been there to make sure they had a father figure and someone to count on. I am living pure hell and each day that passes is killing my soul. I have been through too much to be burdened with more heartache. This has gotta be resolved soon… I would give my life to bring her home.

One thing that is getting harder to do is handle all the phone calls from concerned friends and family…. The constant updates are wearing me down so I will be posting here any major updates we have. You can also follow my twitter account.

That’s all I have for right now...

Jennifer… if you are reading this… I love you more than you will ever know and you are my best friend in the world… nobody is mad at you... mom is here too.. come home...

- Frank Frisina

OverlayZone

2009-04-14T11:12:00.000-07:00

Overlay Zone

Seems like a nice application, but I don't know anything about the code, the company or what this may put on your computer. Since I don't play that many tournaments, I don't think I will download this, but you never know.

Thanks to Smokkee for finding this one.

my fan club

2009-03-20T20:16:00.000-07:00

gmunkey: ****ing moron chaser
ml: tell him god
buddysbluff: god got a potty mouth
gmunkey: better than being an absolute ****ing moron , buddy
gmunkey: didn't feel like catching a miracle this time you re tard?
buddysbluff: u really r as stupid as u look
ml: too funny
gmunkey: dude, you have a ****ing dog on your icon
gmunkey: Actually, two. One gayer than the other.
buddysbluff: my *** dog looks better than u
ml: nh
Dealer: ml has a pair of Kings
Dealer: Game #26185705056: ml wins pot (1800) with a pair of Kings
gmunkey: of course
gmunkey: king ****ing 2
gmunkey: why the hell wouldn't you call with king 2
gmunkey: I don't know if you are actually dumber than buddy
ml: after the j 8 chase? are you serious
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: neck and ****ing neck, that race
gmunkey: open ended straight draw
gmunkey: you called a raise with k 2
gmunkey: that is a terrible ****ing play
gmunkey: did you learn to play poker by jacking it to gay porn?
gmunkey: THere's better literature on strategy.
gmunkey: uh oh, ml folded his queen 3

Token Tilt

2009-03-09T19:33:00.001-07:00

So I tried a couple 4.40 sngs for a $26 token on FullTilt.

I should have guessed something was up after the first lost:

QQ lost to 10 8 offsuit with 3 left for the a zero

Mistakenly thought I just got unlucky and these things are easy, I just have to remember "that'll happen."

Next game, AA lost to 44 with, you guessed it, 3 left for a zero!!!

I started to get pissed, but "that'll happen," right?

Next game, hit a ten on the flop - 99s couldn't let go and runner runner straighted me.

After that it was a series of KK losing to A4 off when he didn't even hit the ace.

KJ losing to K2, Q 9 getting rivered by Q 8 etc.

I should have just bought into 4 or 5 $26 tourneys straight up, it would have been cheaper!!!!!!!

Either that or just quit this silly game.

BBT 4

2009-02-20T09:13:00.000-08:00

Oh dear god, I was thinking about it but the schedule is so brutual for an east coast working stiff.

Tournament: Brit Blogger Game
When: Sunday's at 16:00ET
Game: NLHE
Buyin: $5+.50
Password: donkament

Tournament: Blogger Big Game
When: March 1st, April 19th, May 31st
Game: Superstack NLHE
Buyin: $69+6 or token
Password: donkey

Tournament: PPI / Riverchasers Tournament
When: Monday's at 22:00ET
Game: Deepstack NLHE
Buyin: $24+2 or token
Password: riverchasers

Tournament: Blogger Skillz Game
When: Tuesday's at 21:30ET
Game: rotation of non-NLHE games
Buyin: $10+1
Password: skillz

Tournament: The Mookie
When: Wednesday's at 22:00ET
Game: Deepstack NLHE
Buyin: $10+1
Password: vegas1

Update

2009-02-19T07:48:00.001-08:00

College basketball is not really happening so I am going to take a break until March madness. Not from betting, just from posting my horrific picks. I would not want anyone else to suffer the same gut wrenching results I have over the last two weeks.

As for poker, last night was actually fun because I did well in a couple. Still ended my run with bad beats in all four:

Pokerstars - 120th out of 2448, lost AA to A6s.
Pokerstars - 42nd out of 2638, lost AKs to AJo.
Pokerstars - out of the money in the 3.30 rebuy (KK lost to some crap and ran into aces a lot)
FullTilt - 3rd out of 56, KJo lost to K2.

It is hard to have fun when you just keep losing these 70-30 or better when all the money is in. Losing those when it is only 20%-50% of your stack is bad enough, but constantly getting the snot kicked out of you when all the money is in is no fun. Sometimes I wonder why I still play since I don't really enjoy it that much anymore.

B-ball update

2009-02-19T07:46:00.001-08:00

Wednesday pixs

2009-02-11T11:02:00.000-08:00

Ball State +15
Ohio +2
Drake -3
James Madison +12
La Salle +2
East Carolina +5
Duke +2 (yeah, you read that right!)

These are all the ones with a delta of 3 or greater after factoring the ranking, spread and 3.53 pts for the home team. The new formula blends the rankings between point margins in previous games with outright wins or losses and the home advantage has been lowered from 4.00 to 3.53.

pre-game update

2009-02-11T09:27:00.000-08:00

Screwed up in the Skillz tourney. It was fun, but I really messed up the final table with too much limping and folding the nuts on the flop because of possible draws. Oh well, maybe next week.

I went 3-2 on last nights ncaa b-ball and 8-8 overall. Thus for the season I am
11-7 but the parlay crap crushed my bankroll. I will do one more trial run tonight to see if the trends for the new system are positive or not.

New picks

2009-02-10T16:15:00.000-08:00

They tried to break me Saturady. I have to admit, I did a lot of soul searching Sunday, but I have re-tweaked my formula and dropped the parlay bullcrap.

Tonight is test run for the new system to make sure I am back on track before I teach those crocks a serious lesson tomorrow.

In order of confidence:
Miami (ohio) -7.5: Central Michigan is too bad and being at home won't help

Hofstra +1.5: two evenly matched teams, but Hofstra is at home getting points

Florida State -10: FL state is too much better and at home

The next two technically didn't make the cut, but not that much else to look at tonight.

OK State +8.5: evenly matched teams but texas is giving up too many points

Florida +4.5: Florida is slightly better and getting points so home field adv won't help Kentucky

Also, I might play the blogger Skillz game tonight while I watch the games.

Basketball picks

2009-02-04T07:22:00.000-08:00

Basketball here I come.

I am just trying it out, but I started with two pro and two college picks with a two team parlay for each.

2-0 in NCAA
0-2 in NBA

2 Team Parlay
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(731) Maryland +21½ Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(732) North Carolina
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Northern Iowa +2 Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(734) Bradley

Single
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Northern Iowa +2 Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(734) Bradley

Single
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(731) Maryland +21½ Tue@8:00p
Competitor:(732) North Carolina

Single
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(711) San Antonio Spurs +6 Tue@9:05p
Competitor:(712) Denver Nuggets

Single
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Milwaukee Bucks +4½ Tue@7:35p
Competitor:(708) New Jersey Nets

2 Team Parlay
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(707) Milwaukee Bucks +4½ Tue@7:35p
Competitor:(708) New Jersey Nets
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread
(711) San Antonio Spurs +6 Tue@9:05p
Competitor:(712) Denver Nuggets

This weeks football bets

2009-01-14T06:20:00.000-08:00

Six points is too much to give up when both of the pre-season wins by Pitt should not have happened. Yea, the Ravens are pretty tired and banged up, but Pitt is not that much better than the Ravens and the majority of scenarios have the Ravens covering in a close game.

Also, I don't like Philly that much, but I just don't trust the "new" Cardinals.

Balt +6
Philly -3.5

Playoff pics

2009-01-09T07:08:00.000-08:00

Alright, here are the lead pipe locks of the minute:

Balt +3 (D and D)
Ariz +9.5 (D and D)
Philly +4 (D)
SD +6 (D)

football update

2009-01-07T13:09:00.001-08:00

Did well in the beginning for both, but got crushed in the pros at the end.

Pro: 14-18
College: 43-28-1

Still 7 more pro games to go and some college bowls, but I think I will just do the last 7 pro games.

last pro pixs for season

2008-12-24T18:19:00.000-08:00

Bears +3 (lost)
KC +3 (lost)
Jax +12.5 (lost)

SHIT!

14-18 on the season for pro

I made another friend

2008-12-21T20:48:00.000-08:00

jim7147 [observer] said, "great calls moron... your stupidity is overwhelming... what a complete idiot"
jim7147 [observer] said, "were you born stupid?????????????"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "got it, another idiot with a neg roi, and chasing over 400 in losses.. what a loser"
microvillain said, "ty"
jim7147 [observer] said, "talkk about morons.. your in control,, c cy loser.. so il literate, the best you can do is ty... your absolutely pathetic... chase your lossses stupid"
jim7147 [observer] said, "LOSER"
microvillain said, "ty"

Pro pixs

2008-12-21T10:05:00.000-08:00

14-15

Pitt +2 (lost)
Chiefs +3.5 (lost)
Seattle +3.5 (won)

Bowl game pixs

2008-12-18T07:05:00.000-08:00

Here are the teams based on the "running dogs" idea (the better running team wins):

Navy +3 (lost)
Colo. St +4 (won)
Byu +3 (lost)
N dame +2.5 (won)
Fl Atl +6 (won)
Wis +6 (lost)
La Tech +3 (won)
W. Mich +2.5 (lost)
Oregon +3 (won)
Air force +3.5 (lost)
Nebraska +2.5 (won)
Ole miss +7 (won)
Tulsa +2.5 (won)
Memphis +14 (lost)
Pitt +3 (push)

Not completely sold on this approach but I will look into it more.

Hand Converter Tools

2008-12-17T08:32:00.000-08:00

Pipedreams did a good job of listing some hand converter tools that should make reading hand histories easier.

PokerHand.org

Leggo Poker Hand Converter

Deuces Cracked Hand Converter

FlopTurnRiver Hand History Converter

Week 15 picks

2008-12-11T10:15:00.001-08:00

M: 13
B: 13

Titans -3 (lost)
Giants +3 (lost)
Saints +3 (push)

Awesome

2008-12-08T09:52:00.000-08:00

Week 13 football Picks Update

2008-12-03T07:10:00.000-08:00

college

M: 35
B: 22

Louisville +10 (lost)
Alabama +10 (lost)
Missouri +17.5 (lost)
Hawaii +7.5 (won)

NFL

M: 13
B: 11

San Fran +3.5 (won)
Sea +6.5(won)
TB +3 (lost)

Week 12 update

2008-12-02T05:51:00.000-08:00

Crappy weekend for my picks but no blood

College

Micro: 34
Book:19

NFL

Micro: 11
Book: 10

This week's lead pipe locks:

Oregon St. -3 (lost)
OK -7 (won)
FL -16.5 (won)
GA -8 (lost)

Cards +3 (lost)
Viks -3 (won)
Texans -3 (won)

O8 and the lucky keep getting lucky

2008-11-29T16:48:00.000-08:00

From: PokerStars Support
Subject: Results for PokerStars Tournament 122500945
To: XXXXXXXX@XXXXX.com
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008, 6:43 AM

PokerStars Tournament #122500945, Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
Buy-In: $20.00/$2.00
324 players
$520.00 added to the prize pool by PokerStars
Total Prize Pool: $7000.00
Tournament started - 2008/11/28 - 19:30:00 (ET)

Dear XXXXXXXX,

You finished the tournament in 2nd place.
A $1,001.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

You earned 293.56 tournament leader points in this tournament.
For information about our tournament leader board, see our web site at
http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/tournaments/leader-board/

Congratulations!
Thank you for participating.

Week 12

2008-11-26T06:50:00.000-08:00

College

Micro: 32
Book:17

NFL

Micro: 9
Book: 9

This week's lead pipe locks:

Oregon St. -3
OK -7
FL -16.5
GA -8

Cards +3
Viks -3
Texans -3

Football Update

2008-11-24T07:40:00.000-08:00

NFL College
Micro:9 Micro:32
Bookie:9 Bookie:17

Last weeks picks:

Steelers -11 (won)
Texans +3 (won)
Panthers +1 (lost)

Mich. +21 (lost)
Iowa St. +10 (won)
Oregon St. +3 (won)
Tx Tech. +7 (lost)

Weekly pixs

2008-11-21T05:51:00.000-08:00

So far:

NFL College
Micro:7 Micro:30
Bookie:8 Bookie:15

This weeks try:

Steelers -11 (won)
Texans +3
Panthers +1

Mich. +21
Iowa St. +10
Oregon St. +3
Tx Tech. +7

NFL betting background

2008-11-13T11:14:00.000-08:00

How To Calculate NFL Point Spread Odds

While the NFL point spread is the most popular type of bet in the United States, most that bet this proposition are unfamiliar with how to calculate the point spread odds themselves, and this article aims to change that.

Because of the way football is scored, some point spreads are more important than others. As such, it is worth the time to read the article on Key NFL Point Spreads before continuing.

The Team's Winning Percentage is Everything

Before you can calculate point spread odds you must have an idea as to how often the teams playing in the game are going to win. This is the most crucial part to calculating fair point spread odds, as the actual margin of victory in a game is a chance event. The more often a team wins the game the more likely they are to win by a larger margin of victory. To calculate how often you can expect at team to win, checkout Smart Pro Football Handicapping.

Once you know a team's probability of winning a given game, you can then calculate the probability of the team covering a specific point spread.

To calculate these point spread odds you must know the conditional probability distribution for a team winning by a specific number of points given that we already know they have won the game. This distribution for the average NFL game is referred to as the overall margin of victory distribution and is shown below.

Overall Margin of Victory Distribution

For an average NFL game the winning team's margin of victory will follow the following probability distribution:
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 3.46% 0.00% 94.60% 3.46%
2 2.89% 3.46% 90.57% 6.85%
3 14.51% 6.85% 73.69% 22.29%
4 3.39% 22.29% 69.31% 26.45%
5 2.64% 26.45% 65.81% 29.82%
6 4.18% 29.82% 60.58% 34.89%
7 8.08% 34.89% 51.13% 44.19%
8 2.57% 44.19% 47.78% 47.54%
9 1.14% 47.54% 46.10% 49.21%
10 5.12% 49.21% 39.94% 55.43%
11 2.19% 55.43% 37.06% 58.36%
12 1.01% 58.36% 35.56% 59.90%
13 2.64% 59.90% 32.17% 63.38%
14 3.68% 63.38% 27.66% 68.05%
15 0.85% 68.05% 26.37% 69.39%
16 1.40% 69.39% 24.43% 71.43%
17 2.93% 71.43% 20.78% 75.29%
18 1.61% 75.29% 18.62% 77.59%
19 0.75% 77.59% 17.46% 78.83%
20 1.40% 78.83% 15.54% 80.90%
21 2.02% 80.90% 12.95% 83.74%

To account for a margin of error, the data in the table above are the lower limits of a one-sided 99% confidence interval based on actual results for NFL regular season games from the 1997-2006 seasons.

A Quick Word Regarding Blowouts

A common mistake NFL point spread bettors make is betting on the blowout.

Based on the data in the table above you can see that at least 27.66% of all NFL games will end with a margin of victory of 15 points or higher. It's easy to see why bettors bet for the blowout, as that's roughly 1 out of every 4 games!

Bettors hate to see their team get crushed, but like it or not, at least 12.95% of all games will have the winning team do so by 22 or more points (almost 1 out of every 8 games).

Don't let these probabilities affect you psychologically when looking over a given Sunday's results. Your bankroll will thank you for it.

The Home and Away Difference

Only a very small percentage of NFL games are played at a neutral site, so it is important to take into account the difference between winning at home and winning on the road when calculating point spread odds.

Home Margin of Victory Distribution
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 2.94% 0.00% 94.58% 2.94%
2 2.36% 2.94% 90.84% 5.90%
3 13.24% 5.90% 74.55% 20.27%
4 2.82% 20.27% 70.51% 24.03%
5 2.36% 24.03% 67.06% 27.29%
6 3.06% 27.29% 62.78% 31.37%
7 7.70% 31.37% 53.28% 40.62%
8 2.24% 40.62% 50.04% 43.81%
9 0.97% 43.81% 48.39% 45.45%
10 4.74% 45.45% 42.31% 51.56%
11 2.07% 51.56% 39.33% 54.59%
12 0.92% 54.59% 37.77% 56.18%
13 2.47% 56.18% 34.33% 59.72%
14 3.29% 59.72% 29.96% 64.25%
15 0.47% 64.25% 29.03% 65.23%
16 1.29% 65.23% 27.02% 67.34%
17 3.06% 67.34% 22.98% 71.64%
18 1.51% 71.64% 20.73% 74.05%
19 0.76% 74.05% 19.42% 75.48%
20 1.40% 75.48% 17.33% 77.76%
21 1.57% 77.76% 15.05% 80.28%

Away Margin of Victory Distribution
Margin of Victory Exactly Less Than Greater Than Less Than
or Equal To
1 3.38% 0.00% 93.45% 3.38%
2 2.89% 3.38% 88.74% 7.05%
3 14.68% 7.05% 70.38% 23.19%
4 3.38% 23.19% 65.45% 27.80%
5 2.34% 27.80% 61.83% 31.23%
6 4.85% 31.23% 55.23% 37.60%
7 7.39% 37.60% 45.84% 46.88%
8 2.34% 46.88% 42.32% 50.42%
9 0.92% 50.42% 40.62% 52.15%
10 4.69% 52.15% 34.41% 58.53%
11 1.73% 58.53% 31.70% 61.35%
12 0.72% 61.35% 30.30% 62.81%
13 2.19% 62.81% 27.06% 66.24%
14 3.38% 66.24% 22.46% 71.17%
15 0.99% 71.17% 20.73% 73.06%
16 1.06% 73.06% 18.91% 75.06%
17 2.03% 75.06% 15.93% 78.37%
18 1.21% 78.37% 13.96% 80.60%
19 0.40% 80.60% 13.07% 81.61%
20 0.92% 81.61% 11.48% 83.45%
21 2.03% 83.45% 8.60% 86.86%

The important thing to remember about the difference between winning at home versus winning on the road is that teams that win at home are more likely to win by a larger margin than teams that win on the road.

With this key difference in mind, you've not got all the data you need to calculate point spread odds.

Calculating the Odds

With winning probabilities and margin of victory distributions in hand you can now calculate point spread odds.

Below are a couple of examples.

Example #1: You approximate the true winning percentage for a team playing at home to be 58%, and the listed point spread is home team -3 points. What are the fair odds for the home team covering -3 points and the away team covering +3 points?

Probability of home team covering -3 points:

Using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the home team wins they will do so by more than 3 points at least 74.55% of the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:

The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that the home team will win by more than 3 points. This result is then divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3 points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final probability of the home team covering -3 points is 46.84%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +113.

Probability of away team covering +3 points:

Again, using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the home team wins they will do so by less than 3 points at least 5.90% of the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:

The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that the home team will win by 2 points or less combined with the probability that the away team will win outright. This result is then divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3 points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final probability of the away team covering +3 points is 49.20%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +103.

It should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. The "left over" 3.96% (100% - 46.84% - 49.20% = 3.96%) is due to the margin of error. Because we're using historical data, we can't be 100% sure of the exact probabilities.

Example #2: You approximate the true winning percentage for a team playing on the road to be 75%, and the listed point spread is away team -4.5 points. What are the fair odds for the away team covering -4.5 points and the home team covering +4.5 points?

Probability of away team covering -4.5 points:

Using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the away team wins they will do so by more than 4 points at least 65.45% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:

As this calculation shows, the probability of the away team covering -4.5 points is 49.09%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +104.

Probability of home team covering +4.5 points:

Again, using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the away team wins they will do so by less than or equal to 4 points at least 27.80% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as follows:

As this calculation shows, the probability of the home team covering +4.5 points is 45.85%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +118.

As with the first example, it should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. Again, the "left over" 5.06% (100% - 49.09% - 45.85% = 5.06%) is due to the margin of error.

Key NFL Point Spreads

Because of the way football games are scored, some point spreads are more important than others. These point spreads are commonly referred to as the key point spreads.

These key point spreads are: 3, 7, 10, and 6.

To understand why these point spreads are important, you must take a look at the NFL's margin of victory distribution:

The graphic above shows the relative frequencies for the specified margins of victory for regular season games during the 2002-2003 through 2006-2007 NFL seasons.

The numbers 3, 7, 10, and 6 are key because they make up 38% of all margins of victory in the NFL.

The number 3 is the most important as it has a relative frequency of 16.26%. The number 7 is next on the list with a relative frequency of 9.77%, which makes the number 3 a little over 1.5 times as important as the number 7. The number 10 has a 6.57% relative frequency, and the number 6 has a 5.79% relative frequency. This makes the number 3 about 2.5 times as important as the number 10 and 2.8 times as important as the number 6. As such, when you're looking to place a bet on a team to cover the point spread, always ensure you're getting the best number possible, especially if the point spread is one of the key numbers.

The Difference between Playing at Home and Away

When handicapping a game you will want to separate the home and away distributions, as some numbers are slightly more important for a visiting team than they are for a home team.

Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the home team wins:

When the home team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 15.45% for the number 3; 10.43% for the number 7; 6.78% for the number 10; and 4.89% for the number 6. Another thing to note about this distribution is that the number 14 is almost as important as the number 6, as it has a relative frequency of 4.61%. (This is a moot point, however, as you should rarely lay 14 points in the NFL; so rare, in fact, that it's best to never consider laying 14 points.)

For visiting teams, however, these key point spreads mean a little more than they do for teams playing at home.

Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the away team wins:

When the away team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 17.38% for the number 3; 8.87% for the number 7; 7.02% for the number 6; and 6.28% for the number 10. Based on this data, the number 6 is slightly more important than the number 10 when betting visiting teams.

It's also worth nothing that the number 4 is important as well, as it has a relative frequency of 5.36%. The number 14 is again almost as important when a relative frequency of 5.18%, but again, it's best to never consider laying 14 points, so it isn't worth taking into consideration when placing a bet.

Always Shop

Now that you know the relative importance of key point spreads in the NFL, it is imperative to always shop for the best number, regardless of the point spread. That said, getting a better number than one of the key point spreads will provide you with the most benefit.

NLHE cash game disaster

2008-11-06T08:47:00.000-08:00

Lost a buy in in the tourney -- never got any cards or favorable plays/situations

-2.5 buyins for cash:

(1) Cooler - in straddle for 6 with QJ offsuit. Loose late position raiser to 12, i call along with 2 others. Flop is 3 7 J. I bet 25 and get called by lpr. Turn is J. I check and lpr checks. River is a 9 - I bet 10 and he raises to 35, I call. lpr shows A J for better kicker.

(2) 1st 4 outer - Call a pfr to 12 with pocket 3s from bb. Flop is A 3 4 rainbow. I check and other three check. Turn is a 10. I bet 10 and get 3 callers. River is a 2 - I check and tight player (ace monkey) bets 25, I call and get beat by 9 5.

(3) 3 outer - call pfr to 12 with K 7 (loose passive table) from button. Flop is K 2 7. Loose bad player bets 25, I call in position. Turn is something stupid. He checks and I bet 45, he calls. River is an 8 and he bets 75, I call and he flips over the K 8.

(4) 2 outer - tight player (ace monkey) bets 18 which usually means he has a medium pair, after two other callers I call from the blind with 7 4 suited. Flop comes A 4 4. I check he bets 25 everyone folds to me and I call. Turn is a 6. I check and he checks (he usually doesn't check an ace here). River is an Ace, I check and he bets 35 and I call hoping for a medium pair but he has the A J.

(5) 2nd 4 outer - I am on the button with K 10 offsuit and raise it up pretty good, but get three callers. Flop comes K 10 x. Early bettor for 15 (about 35% of the pot). I make it 45 and he shoves his last 90 some in the pot. I call - he flips over the A Q and spikes a J on the river.

I hate this crap sometimes and it is too hard to console my self with "you made the right decisions blah blah blah blah."

PLO Strategy Guide

2008-10-17T13:25:00.000-07:00

Pot-Limit Omaha
By PokerListings.com
Pot-Limit Omaha, Cash Game
• Introduction
• Key Advice and Common Mistakes
• Pre-Flop Play
• Starting Hands
• Flop Play
• The Turn
• The River
• Pot Odds
Introduction
Pot-Limit Omaha is one of the most popular cash games played in casinos across Europe today. It has made significant headway in tournament games and, in fact, bigger tournaments host Pot-Limit Omaha events a couple of times throughout the year. Omaha is one of the fastest-growing types of poker today and is played far more in Europe than in the United States.
Pot-Limit Omaha is a very strategic game, involving a great deal of skill and discipline. It requires players to keep many concepts in mind simultaneously. This article aims to help beginner and intermediate players improve their Pot-Limit Omaha game by playing in a solid, tight-aggressive style. It advocates balancing bluffs and semi-bluffs with (mostly) solid play, and focuses on pre-flop and flop play since these are the most important betting rounds. The game rapidly becomes complex and more challenging to analyze when you reach the turn and river. However, if you play correctly pre-flop and on the flop, you will face fewer difficult situations on the turn and river.
As in all forms of poker there are exceptions to the rules; thus, the concepts laid out in this article should be understood as general guidelines. In order to be a truly successful player, it is imperative that you be able to use your judgment when determining the best possible play. It is virtually impossible to provide clear-cut advice applicable to all situations.
Key Skills to Becoming a Good Pot-Limit Omaha Player
• Strict hand selection (patience/discipline)
• Good table selection (very important in all poker games)
• Discipline (the ability to wait for a good hand and not chase with second best hands)
• Ability to read your opponents
• Courage to bet/raise (to be aggressive with draws or perceived best hands)
• Lack of vulnerability to going on tilt
A Comparison: Pot-Limit Omaha vs. Texas Hold'em
1. More players will see the flop in Omaha. The advantage of good starting hands over bad ones is not as great in Omaha. This encourages people to see more flops in Omaha than in Hold'em. It also creates bigger pots, making your decisions on the flop even more crucial.
2. You need a stronger hand to win at Omaha. The hands that typically win the pot in Hold'em, such as top pair with top kicker and overpairs, do not win it very often in Pot-Limit Omaha. In Omaha, the best hands are those that are made and hold additional value, like top set with a big draw. When the money goes into the middle in Pot-Limit Omaha someone is usually holding the nuts.
3. Omaha is a more hand-driven game. There are not as many opportunities to bluff in Omaha. This is due to the fact that there are more players seeing the flop and more combinations of hands to be made. When a pair is on the board someone is likely holding a full house, when a flush or straight is possible someone is likely to hold it, and so forth.
4. Giving free cards is generally a bad play in Omaha. First of all, because the pots are usually bigger on the flop, it makes more sense to try and win the pot right there. Second, your hands are much more likely to get action because of the greater drawing possibilities. Finally, it is very probable that a free card could beat your hand.
5. Although position is very important in all forms of poker, it is less important in Omaha. More players are in on the flop and it is hard to pick up a pot by betting when checked-to in late position. As a result, it is usually the player holding the best hand that wins the pot.
6. Tight players are less likely to be "bullied" in Omaha. In Hold'em, tight players can easily be bullied out of pots when the flop comes with low cards. However, in Omaha, because a tight player can play hands such as 8-7-6-5, J-J-5-4 or 8-8-7-7 with little difficulty, it is harder to push him around. The pondering bully can never be positive that you do not hold the nuts on a flop like 7-6-3, while, in Hold'em, he would be almost certain that you do not.
Pot-Limit
In Pot-Limit Omaha, you want to protect your hands by making pot-sized bets and raises until you are a big favorite, at which point you put all your money in the middle. You want to have the best possible hand and/or draw when all the money goes in. In Pot-Limit, the pots increase quickly and you must be able to determine the amount you can bet on the turn, if you expect to get called on the flop.
Generally, there is no reason to bet or raise less than the size of the pot when playing Pot-Limit Omaha. You might do this on specific occasions, like when betting into an opponent with the second-nut flush on the river and the pot is very big, or if you want a call on the river and you bet the amount you think your opponent will call. However, while it is entirely dependent on the player and the situation, most of the time it is best to bet and raise the size of the pot.
Key Advice and Common Mistakes
Key advice for Pot-Limit Omaha
1. Be very selective with your starting hands: nothing is more important than choosing the correct starting hand for a certain situation.
2. Table selection: only play in games where you have an edge. You want at least a couple of weak players at the table when you sit down.
3. "Play the players": be sure to quickly assess the opposition: who plays inferior hands, who folds at aggression, who bets with draws, who calls big bets with weak hands and draws, who can be bluffed, who bluffs, etc.
4. "Pump it or dump it": fold or bet/raise (if the odds are with you). You should avoid calling unless you have a good reason (such as trapping an opponent or increasing your pot odds when you are on a big draw).
5. Respect most big bets and raises: this is particularly true in Pot-Limit Omaha since most players do not bluff.
6. Do not get "married" to the nut flush draw: the difference between drawing to the nut flush in Omaha as compared to Hold'em is that in Hold'em you can usually win the pot by pairing your ace or win the pot with a flush even though the board pairs. The same is not true in Omaha.
7. Do not get "married" to an eight-way straight draw: in Omaha, it is possible to flop 13-way, 17-way and 20-way straight draws. It is best to wait until you hold one of these draws before you heavily involve yourself in the pot.
8. Do not overplay unsuited aces: when all you hold are a pair of aces and two unsuited, unconnected rags, there is little you can flop to improve your hand. If you do not flop an ace, you will usually end up with a weak holding.
9. Bet your best drawing hands: enhance the deception in your game by betting your strong draws, as you will also win more pots without a fight.
10. Always draw to the nuts in multi-way pots: when all the money goes into the middle in multi-way pots, be sure to draw to the nuts. Avoid committing all your money with draws without additional value as you can find yourself trapped between a set and the nut flush draw, which may leave you with only a nut straight draw that might end up in a split pot if you hit.
Common mistakes in Pot-Limit Omaha
1. Not releasing a decent hand when beat, thus losing the whole stack on one hand.
2. Overvaluing the hand (common mistake by Hold'em players).
3. Calling with weak holdings when facing a bet.
4. Playing too many starting hands.
5. Not raising pre-flop with premium hands (putting pressure on limpers holding drawing hands) and then going too far with them after the flop.
6. Giving free cards or underbetting the pot (risking a lot to win small/not protecting your hand).
Pre-Flop Play
General pre-flop advice
The most important skill to master when playing Pot-Limit Omaha is knowing which starting hands are profitable to play. However, there are no guides capable of covering every possible situation, so it is advised that you follow certain standard guidelines. Essentially, the hand you choose to play is dependent on the following factors:
1. Is the table tight or loose?
2. How many players are sitting at the table?
3. How many players are in the pot when it is your turn to act?
4. Has the pot been raised? If so, from what player and position?
5. What is your position?
1. If the table is tight you should strongly consider moving to a different game, though there are ways to make money at tight tables as well. In general, you have to play more aggressively than usual. This translates into much more pre-flop raising and bluffing. Your advantage at this type of table is that you will know how your opponents play but you will be playing more hands and playing them aggressively, which will make your plays harder to read.
2. Generally, you must play tighter at a full table and looser at a short-handed table.
3. If many players are in the pot when it is your turn to act, you will possess more information, which will allow you to play more hands. In addition, your drawing hands will get a better price and there is less of a likelihood that you will be able to limit the field by raising.
4. If the pot has been raised, you will have to play hands that you think are not dominated by the raiser. In these situations you should be very selective of which hands you play.
5. Your position will greatly affect the hands you play. In general, you have to play tighter from an early position and then add hands as your position improves.
Starting Hands
The starting hand is just as important in Omaha as in all other forms of poker. What you are looking for is four cards that work together, although many beginners (who are used to playing Texas Hold'em) do not realize this. They will play any four cards that contain one or two good Hold'em hands. For example, they often overrate hands like J -J -2 -7 , thinking that it is as good as a pair of jacks is in Hold'em. They also misinterpret hands, such as A -Q -8 -8 , because they include two decent Hold'em hands. However, in this type of hand there are poorly coordinated combinations, like A-8 and Q-8. For example, compare the aforementioned hands to As-K -A -K , which is the strongest starting hand in Omaha. In this hand, you hold AA, KK and two different combinations of AKs. All possible combinations are very strong hands in Texas Hold'em as well.
Other examples of hands that have four cards working together are hands like Q -J -T -9 , K -K -Q -J , Q -Q -J -T , J -J -T -T , As-A -3 -4 , As-A -K -Q , As-A -J -T (the second-strongest starting hand), 8 -7 -6 -5 , and so forth.
Thus, you want starting hands that hold both straight, flush and set potential. For instance, imagine the power of holding the As-A -J -T on a flop of A -K -Q , giving you top set, the nut straight and the nut flush draw. Notice that the J will also give you a royal flush. Another example is if you hold the Q -Q -K -T on a flop of Q -J -7 , giving you top set, a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw.
Hand ranking
Below are the top 30 starting hands in Pot-Limit Omaha.
1 A-A-K-K double-suited
2 A-A-J-T double-suited
3 A-A-Q-Q double-suited
4 A-A-J-J double-suited
5 A-A-T-T double-suited
6 A-A-9-9 double-suited
7 A-A-x-x double-suited
8 J-T-9-8 double-suited
9 K-K-Q-Q double-suited
10 K-K-J-J double-suited
11 K-Q-J-T double-suited
12 K-K-T-T double-suited
13 K-K-A-Q double-suited
14 K-K-A-J double-suited
15 K-K-A-T double-suited
16 K-K-Q-J double-suited
17 K-K-Q-T double-suited
18 K-K-J-T double-suited
19 Q-Q-J-J double-suited
20 Q-Q-T-T double-suited
21 Q-Q-A-K double-suited
22 Q-Q-A-J double-suited
23 Q-Q-A-T double-suited
24 Q-Q-K-J double-suited
25 Q-Q-K-T double-suited
26 Q-Q-J-T double-suited
27 Q-Q-J-9 double-suited
28 Q-Q-9-9 double-suited
29 J-J-T-T double-suited
30 J-J-T-9 double-suited
Whether double-suited, suited or non-suited, these are all very strong starting hands in Pot-Limit Omaha.
The trap hands
Trap hands are hands that seem very good but can easily make you a second-best hand. These are the types of hands that can cause you to lose your whole stack. There are three types of trap hands in Pot-Limit Omaha:
1. The Small Pair Hands
2. The Low Wrap Hands
3. The Small Flush Hands
1. Hands with pairs below nines are dangerous to play. When you flop a set it is very hard to escape the hand and, if you are up against a bigger set, you are drawing to one out. When you hold a hand like 6 -6 -5 -4 and the flop comes Q -J -6 , you may find yourself in big trouble. The moment to play small pairs is when you do not have a lot of money in front of you, at this stage it is not as bad to commit your whole stack if you flop a small set. Or, for example, when you have something like A-A-2-2 or K-K-3-3, then you should play in the hopes of flopping the big set. However, you must always think twice before you commit a lot of money with bottom set on the flop.
2. The types of hands that are very deceptive and dangerous to play are the lower four connected hands, like 5 -4 -3 -2 . These hands are dangerous because it is too simple to flop or draw to the low-end of a straight. When the flop comes 8-7-6 with this type of hand, you can easily find yourself up against a bigger straight, drawing dead.
3. Hands that can only make small flushes are risky hands. For example, let us again look at the 5 -4 -3 -2 on a flop of K -J -8 . This will give you a small flush. You cannot commit a lot of money with this hand and, if you were to get any action at all, you would most likely be beaten.
Limping or raising before the flop
In Pot-Limit Omaha, no matter what you hold, your opponent's hand will almost always have a decent chance of beating your hand. For example, being dealt an A-A-K-K double-suited is 50,000:1 (against) and that hand is just a 3:2 favorite to win against 8-7-6-5 double-suited. As such, the question arises of whether or not you should raise when you hold a good starting hand.
What about only raising when you hold aces? The problem with this strategy is that you become too predictable, as people will know exactly where you are and will not likely make mistakes against you.
How about always limping in? This is better than just raising with aces though it is still not an optimal strategy. Whenever you bet, raise or call on the flop, your opponents will also have a good idea of what type of hand you hold. If you never raise pre-flop, you do not make other limping players pay enough to see the flop for those times when you hold a strong starting hand. Also, you will not be picking up as many pots as when you play with a raising strategy.
By raising with a variety of hands pre-flop, you will gain numerous advantages: you become unpredictable, you pick up more pots, you make opponents pay when you are likely to have the best hand and you obtain more bluffing opportunities. Another advantage is that it is more fun to play according to this strategy. In light of all this, it becomes clear that a strategy combining both raising and limping with a variety of hands is the best.
Which hands to raise with
A good pre-flop raising strategy is to raise with any of the top 30 hands mentioned above, all of which hold at least one suit and most that don't, though this is not entirely sufficient and you will need to raise with more hands. Add any four cards in a row that are double-suited with cards, six or higher, and all single- and double-suited A-K-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher. Hands like Q-J-9-8 or J-T-9-7 double-suited are also good to raise with.
Summary:
1. All top 30 hands with at least one suit and most of the time when off-suit.
2. All suited A-K-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher.
3. All double-suited four in a row of hands, five or higher.
4. All double-suited connected hands, five or higher, with a maximum of one gap between the top two and the two low cards or between the low card and the three high cards. An example is K-Q-T-9 double-suited and J-9-8-6 double-suited.
5. All K-K-x-x double-suited.
Which hands to limp with
1. All A-Q-x-x with at least one x-card, 10 or higher, and the ace being suited.
2. All four in a row combinations, four or higher.
3. All A-x-x-x anything with at least two x-cards that are connected and the ace being suited.
4. All four-in-a-row combinations, five or higher, with a maximum of one gap that is not between the top and bottom three cards in the hand.
Flop Play
General flop advice
Whether or not you were the pre-flop raiser makes a big difference in the way you play your hand. If you were the pre-flop raiser and the pot is short-handed, strongly consider betting-out even though your hand did not improve. However, you should always consider what type of flop hit. For example, if it is three-handed and you raised with two bare aces and the flop comes Q-J-T with a flush draw that you do not hold in your hand, it's a good opportunity to check and let the other two players fight for the money. But, if the flop is Q-7-3 with no flush draw, you should bet-out. This adds an element of deception to your play and enables you to pick up more pots. In addition, you will get more action when you do hit a great hand on the flop, since betting-out does not necessarily mean you hold anything substantial. Basically, you should never slow-play any hand when you hit your hand hard on the flop, especially because giving free cards in Omaha comes with a much higher risk than it does in Hold'em.
Two pair
Two pair is a difficult hand to play in Omaha. This is because it is a strong hand but not strong enough that you feel completely comfortable committing all your money with it. In general, you must have at least top two pair to give action on the flop. There are too many ways you can be beaten or will end up outdrawn if you commit a lot of money with top and bottom two pair or bottom two pair. If there are straight and/or flush draws on the board and you are called, use your judgment when deciding whether to bet again on the turn. Always consider the type of opponent you are up against. If you think your opponent will continue to draw, you should bet in an effort to shut him out. In Omaha, when someone just calls on the flop that player is generally on a draw, though in some cases they hold bottom set or a weak two pair that they do not want to release on the flop. Bottom two pair and top and bottom two pair are not worth playing on the flop, essentially. It is better to have a big draw to the nuts than to hold this type of hand. The most dangerous aspect of these hands is that you can trap yourself for all your money. This usually happens when you hit a full house on the turn and that same card gives someone else a bigger full house.
Sets
If you follow the playing style recommended in this article and avoid playing small pairs, you should not find yourself in many situations where you are up against a bigger set. If you were the pre-flop raiser, almost always bet-out on the flop if you hit a set. It is seldom wrong to bet-out with top set in a short-handed pot, even though the board looks scary. Remember that anytime you flop a set, you have about a 34% chance of improving to a full house on the turn and river combined. For example, if you pre-flop raised holding K-K-7-6 double-suited and the flop comes K-J-9 with a flush draw that you do not have, bet-out and be prepared to get action. The other players will have to hold a Q-T-x-x with the flush draw in order to feel comfortable moving in against you.
Some players only raise with aces and, if one of these players raised pre-flop and an ace flops, you can put them on top set right away. This is especially true if they limped in from an early position and then re-raised the pot after it had been raised behind them. These players will almost always be holding aces.
Straight draws
In Omaha you will flop many kinds of straight draws. What you want to flop are so-called wraparound straight draws. This happens when the flop comes with two cards that connect and you have cards that surround these two cards. Let us look at a few examples:
1. Hand: Q-J-8-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 17 (wraparound)
2. Hand: J-8-7-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 17 (wraparound)
3. Hand: K-Q-J-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 13
4. Hand: 8-7-6-x Flop: T-9-x Outs: 13
5. Hand Q-J-8-7 Flop: T-9-x Outs: 20 (double wraparound)
It is better to have more overcards than undercards because you will be drawing to a bigger straight. This is why Hand 1 is stronger than Hand 2 and Hand 3 is stronger than Hand 4. Situations will arise when Hand 1 and Hand 2 move all-in on the flop. In this case, Hand 2's strength will diminish considerably, leaving it in bad shape.
You should bet the majority of your big draws on the flop. You do this for two reasons: because you can win the pot immediately (semi-bluff) and because it adds deception to your game. If you play in this manner, your opponents will not know whether you are betting a made hand or a draw.
If you flop a 13-way straight draw to the nuts without any possible flush draws, you are going to get involved in the pot. With 13 nut outs, you have an approximate 29% chance of hitting the nuts on the turn and a 50% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined. Therefore, if an opponent bets the size of the pot, you should call or raise depending on the situation and the player.
The Turn
The turn is generally a time for making big decisions. Should you bet again? Should you re-raise the maximum? Should you fold or call? This depends on many factors (too many to address here), though there are some general guidelines that can be followed. If you hold the nuts, you bet on the flop, and if you still hold the nuts on the turn, you usually should bet the maximum again. Your opponent is likely to be drawing and you want to shut her out or charge her the maximum for attempting to out-draw you. If you hold a minimum of 13 outs to beat whatever your opponent might be holding, it is appropriate to call a pot-sized bet on the turn, though only if both you and your opponent have money left on the river. With 13 outs, you are slightly less than 2:1 (13/44=29.5%) against improving and those are the exact odds the pot is laying you in this case. Because of the implied odds when there is more money left to win, a call is correct.
The River
If you hold the nuts, contemplate what your opponent might possibly hold and try to squeeze out the maximum. If you missed your draw, you must either give up or try a big bluff in case a scare card hits. A lot of judgment is needed when the pot is big and you hold a good hand but not the nuts. You must consider what your opponent is capable of. Will he try to run a bluff if checked to? Or will he also check? Do you dare to value bet with a good hand that is not the nuts?
Bluffing
Bluffing plays an important role in all forms of poker. In Omaha, bluffing is invoked less frequently than in Hold'em but it remains an important skill to master. It is best to bluff when you hold one or more of the key cards in the hand, for example, when you hold the bare ace and there is a possible flush on the board. When deciding whether or not to bluff, always consider the following factors:
1. Type of opponent: do not bluff weak opponents who call with anything (referred to as "calling stations"). This is the most common mistake. Be sure that your opponent is a good enough player to fold a hand.
2. Number of opponents: in general, do not bluff a field of three or more players. A bluff is much more likely to succeed against one opponent, not only because it is just one player but also because the pot is usually smaller, which makes it less desirable.
3. Your table image: a bluff is less likely to succeed if you have a loose table image as opposed to a tight one. If you were recently caught bluffing, your opponents will be more likely to call you in the future, although reverse psychology can occasionally prove beneficial in such situations. For example, if a good player caught you bluffing and he regards you as a good player, he might think you would not dare to bluff him again.
4. Your "reading" skills: if you "read" the game well and are able to put your opponents on likely holdings, you will be able to identify good bluffing opportunities. This is probably the hardest and most important skill to master.
5. The board: if the board looks like it could have hit your opponents or presents many drawing possibilities, a bluff is less likely to succeed. Look for boards without many draws or cards that are likely to improve your opponents' hands. If you can represent a hand, the bluff is more likely to succeed. An uncoordinated board with one scare card that you can represent is usually a good bluffing opportunity.
6. The size of the pot: your opponents will be more prone to call if the pot is big because they get better pot odds. On the other hand, if you make a successful bluff in a big pot the reward will also be bigger. This is when good judgment comes into play.
7. Position: if you are sitting in late position, you will usually have more access to information regarding your opponents' hands and will thus be in a better situation to bluff. For example, if it is checked to you, the board looks favorable and there are few players in the pot.
Made Hand vs. Drawing Hands on the Flop
Let us look at some odds for made hands vs. drawing hands on the flop at Omaha.
Made Hand Drawing Hand Favorite
Set overpair and flush draw Set 1.97
Set gut-shot straight and flush draw Set 1.91
Set overpair and straight draw Set 1.88
Set 13-way straight draw Set 1.44
Set open-ended straight and flush draw Set 1.38
Set 17-way straight draw Set 1.03
Set 13-way straight and flush draw Set 1.01 (even money)
Set 20-way straight draw Draw 1.19
Set 17-way straight and flush draw Draw 1.27
Set 20-way straight and flush draw Draw 1.43
Pot Odds
Pot odds are what you use to calculate whether a certain play has a positive expected value. It is defined as the relationship between the size of the pot and the bet. For instance, if the pot is $100 and you bet $10, the pot odds are 10:1. In order to calculate your pot odds, you must know how many outs your hand has at that moment. For example, if you flop a nut heart flush draw, you then have 9 outs to make your hand. There are 13 hearts in total. You hold 2 and the flop came with 2, leaving 9 hearts unseen.
If you refer to the table below, you will notice that you have a 35% chance of hitting a hand with 9 outs on the turn and river combined. This is slightly better than 1 in 3 times, which means that if it costs you $10 to win $30 or more, drawing for a flush is the correct move.
A rule of thumb: Every out gives you about a 4% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined. For example, 5 outs gives you about a 20% chance of improving, 6 outs about 24%, etc.
Outs for Specific Draws
Double wraparound straight draw 20 outs
Wraparound straight draw 17 outs
Straight flush draw 15 outs
Flush draw and overpair 11 outs
Flush draw 9 outs
Open-ended straight draw 8 outs
Three pair 6 outs
Two pair 4 outs
Drawing Outs from a Deck of 45 Unseen Cards
Number of outs % on Turn
4 17
5 21
6 25
7 29
8 33
9 36
10 40
11 43
12 47
13 50
14 53
15 56
16 59
17 62
18 65
19 67
20 70

Some funny chat, i am "yours truly"

2008-06-06T16:48:00.001-07:00

Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the pot (435)
SkipDaddy: god bless the chasers
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the high pot (280) with two
pair, Aces and Sixes
Dealer: judijudi wins the low pot (280) with 6,5,3,2,A
SkipDaddy: i saw a 3 way split of low comin
SkipDaddy: see
SkipDaddy: or not
Dealer: Beckyr71969 wins the high pot (660) with a
straight, Seven high
Dealer: judijudi ties for the low pot (330) with
6,4,3,2,A
Dealer: SkipDaddy ties for the low pot (330) with
6,4,3,2,A
SkipDaddy: why no raise on the turn becky?
SkipDaddy: or didn't ya know ya had da nuts at that
point?
Dealer: yours truly shows a straight, Nine high, for
high
Dealer: SkipDaddy shows Jack Nine high, for high
Dealer: SkipDaddy shows 8,7,5,3,2, for low
Dealer: yours truly wins the high pot (955) with a
straight, Nine high
Dealer: SkipDaddy wins the low pot (955) with
8,7,5,3,2
yours truly: i am better than becky, skipdaddy
SkipDaddy: noted
Dealer: PeteVee shows a full house, Fours full of
Aces
Dealer: PeteVee wins the side pot (800) with a full
house, Fours full of Aces
Dealer: yours truly shows a full house, Fours full of
Aces
Dealer: PeteVee ties for the main pot (615) with a
full house, Fours full of Aces
Dealer: yours truly ties for the main pot (615) with a
full house, Fours full of Aces
yours truly: i am better than skipdaddy, note that
one
SkipDaddy: yeah, you got that one
PeteVee: everyone is
SkipDaddy: true dat, nitch
SkipDaddy: &!&#&
PeteVee: j/k
SkipDaddy: f/u
PeteVee: v/m
SkipDaddy: man I suk
yours truly: noted
SkipDaddy: can't believe I will chase here
yours truly: you cant stop yourself donk
SkipDaddy: indeed, I can't
SkipDaddy: it's the vodka talkin
yours truly: friendly jest to make you see your errors
SkipDaddy: oh sorry, I meant to just say f/u
SkipDaddy: not so friendly jest to make you see
your ar e dik
SkipDaddy: come on villian, you had it
SkipDaddy: it was yours for the takin
infocline: if he bets i think about folding
yours truly: he hate me
SkipDaddy: we'll miss your witty banter villain
SkipDaddy: and yer snappy pirate garb
microvillain: i am still better than becky, give me at
least that one
infocline: no
yours truly: ouch
SkipDaddy: more aggressive doesn't mean better,
but sure, we will throw you a bone
yours truly: ty
Dealer: yours truly wins the pot (545) with 8,4,3,2,A
yours truly: now that wasnt so hard was it?
yours truly: i will admit that that one was horrible
Dealer: cartania finishes in 7th place
yours truly: i am better than that guy
yours truly: probably going to cash too

#9 from Joe

2008-05-15T07:01:00.000-07:00

Episode 8 - Joe the pro

2008-05-14T07:44:00.001-07:00

Here he goes again!

Wednesday live game recap

2008-05-09T08:02:00.000-07:00

Wednesday was the big live game and here is the outcome:

Expenses:
$10 food/drink/high hand of the night
$100 tourney buy in
$100 buy in for cash game
[$9 short change in the cash game (only $260 left in kitty but I had $269 in chips)]

Profit:
$240 for 4th in the tourney
$260 for cash out in cash game

$290 to the good

Got screwed in the tourney, down 4 handed and UTG goes all in (wild player), I go all in next with AK, SB thinks and thinks and folds (said it was Jacks), BB calls all in with pocket 10s. UTG has A 10 offsuit. Flop comes J high (SB if he was telling the truth would have had trips). Blank blank on the turn and river - gg me.

Still up around $1150 for the year between the tourney and cash games for this group.

Joe the pro - episode 7

2008-05-09T07:19:00.000-07:00

I must have fallen asleep at the switch because he is up to 9 now. Here, at least, is number 7. You have to love this guys work!

Finally came out ahead in something

2008-05-06T06:45:00.000-07:00

Thanks to Pipedreams, I finally posted a win!

It is going to be interesting to see what happens once I finish these books. I have tried the SNGs for years with a little cash game/MTT thrown in for variety. However, the "entertainment expense" starts to build up over the years. Maybe these tools will start a new phase of cash game pot-o-gold, who knows.

I will let you know what I think once I get through the books, but don't expect that to happen in a week. I have little enough time to play as it is much less read about poker. My goal is to be done with the books by the end of May with maybe a few sessions on the cash tables.

The last one was a free for all

2008-04-12T00:35:00.000-07:00

100 SNG no restrictions:

Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 horse y 7 0 -3.4 bullied and lost after being chip leader
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4 too fast early
3.4 PLO8 y 9 0 -3.4 stupid
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 LHE y 3 0 -3.25
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 2 9 5.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
5.5 horse n 4 0 -5.5 one guy sitting out i didnt and bubbled
6.5 horse y 1 24 17.5
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5 played too fast early
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE 45 plrs y 2 30 26.75
3.25 NLHE 6 plyrs y 4 0 -3.25
3.4 Horse y 1 12 8.6
3.4 PLO8 y 2 9 5.6
3.4 NLHE 10 y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 Horse y 1 12 8.6
2.25 PLO y 3 3.6 1.35
5.5 Horse 112 plyrs y 23 0 -5.5
2.25 NLHE y 1 7.8 5.55
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 Horse y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
3.4 hose y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 horse y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 hose y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE 6 plyrs y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.25 NLHE 6 plyr y 6 0 -3.4
1.75 NLo8 18 plyrs y 17 0 -1.75
1.75 NLO8 18 plyrs y 14 0 -1.75
6.5 NLHE y 2 16.2 9.7
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5
3.4 hose y 3 4.8 1.4
6.5 NLHE y 9 0 -6.5
1.75 NLO8 y 4 0 -1.75
3.4 PLO8 y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6
3.4 horse y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
6.5 NLHE y 3 10.6 4.1
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 1 12 8.6
3.25 LHE 6plyr y 6 0 -3.25
3.4 horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 horse y 6 0 -3.4
3.4 PLO8 y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.4 PLO8 y 3 6 2.6
3.4 horse y 5 0 -3.4
1.2 NLHE n 7 0 -1.2
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 horse y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 NLHE y 1 27 20.5
6.5 horse y 3 9.6 3.1
6.5 NLHE y 3 10.8 4.3
6.5 horse y 4 0 -6.5
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 Horse y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 PLO8 y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
Totals -14.9

The 2nd 100SNG challenge

2008-04-12T00:34:00.000-07:00

This one was a 100 $3.4 NLHE challenge:

Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 NLHE y 10 0 -3.4 loose play early cost me then over pair 9s crushed me with all in i called
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4 loose early play
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 AQ versus A10 and AJ, flop AK2 - money goes in and 10 on river
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 bullshit, AQ against 1010, flop QKK, steady betting, 3rd flush on turn - money all in then boom 4th spade
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4 jj flop was 10 high, raised it all in aa slow played and 2 other callers
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6handed - f up and got into it with idiot chip leader when 3 handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 wtf
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6 meo loses
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05 6handed
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.25 NLHE y 3 21 17.75 45h - shit
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4 played too fast
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 stupid call with AK cost me 6th place and another $3
3.4 NLHE y 21 0 -3.25 fucking monkey re-raised me for the second time with A5 and I had AQ, Iost
6.5 NLHE y 5 0 -6.5
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 two overs and he calls the all in, idiot ran me down on the turn
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
6.5 NLHE y 7 0 -6.5 all had 6s, he called with 5s and hit
3.25 NLHE y 10 0 -3.25 45 people
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 people
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 sick beats put me on tilt
3.25 NLHE y 6 0 -3.25 still tilting Q10 calling AK's all in
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 still tilting away QJ versus AK all in
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45 people - no cards
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
3.4 NLHE y 7 0 0 AQ vs QQ
5 NLHE y 1 22.5 17.5 Ultimate Bet
2.2 NLHE y 1 8.4 6.2 Ultimate Bet
0.55 NLHE y 1 2.1 1.55 6 handed on Ultimate Bet
0.55 NLHE y 3 1 0.45 10 handed on Ultimate Bet
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 played like a donk, too aggresive with nothing
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6 screwed up at the end
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6 lucky
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 too aggressive, K3c flop is Jc3d8c, allin no joy
3.4 NLHE y 3 6 2.6 stupid at end
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6 whew
3.4 NLHE y 2 9 5.6
5.5 NLHE y 9 0 -5.5
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 45 handed screwed up at end
3.4 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.3 6 handed
3.4 NLHE y 8 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.25 NLHE y 33 0 -3.25 45 handed
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 6 handed
3.4 NLHE y 4 0 -3.4 bubbled with QQ vs A4
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45
6.5 NLHE y 2 16.2 9.7
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4
3.25 NLHE y 7 6 2.75 45h
4.4 NLHE y 69 0 -4.4 180h
3.4 NLHE y 5 0 -3.4 10h
3.25 NLHE y 16 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 22 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 24 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 31 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 6 0 -3.4 10h
5.5 NLHE y 8 0 -5.5 18h
0.55 NLHE y 4 0 -0.55 UB 6h
0.55 NLHE y 5 0 -0.55 UB 6h
3.4 NLHE y 9 0 -3.4
3.25 FLHE y 1 11.7 8.45 6h
6.6 NLHE y 3 0 -6.6 6h
11 NLHE y 41 0 -11 180handed
3.25 NLHE y 5 0 -3.25 6h
5.5 NLHE y 2 66.8 61.3 90h full tilt
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 3 0 -3.25 6h
3.25 NLHE y 32 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 6 0 -3.25 6h
3.3 NLHE y 2 9 5.7 FT
3.25 NLHE y 1 42 38.75 45h
3.25 NLHE y 2 6.3 3.05 6h
3.25 NLHE y 16 0 -3.25 45h
3.25 NLHE y 21 0 -3.25 45h
3.4 NLHE y 1 15 11.6
3.25 NLHE y 1 11.7 8.45 6h
Totals 110.05

Vegas soon - 1st horse

2008-04-12T00:24:00.000-07:00

5 days till vegas. Unfortunately my poker skillz are poor. I hope that my pi gizzey skillz are up to par.

The first 3 100 SNG challenges are done with the following results:

Buy In Game Turbo Place Prize Profit Notes
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 chased/bluffed with bad cards in razz when faced with raise pre
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 unreal beat, ended with Q10 versus J10
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 jesus christ am i stupid for trying to move them off a hand once they call the raise pre
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 jesus these idiots cant be bluffed
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 like an idiot i played
5.5 HORSE n 4 0 -5.5 bullshit call by the idiot bb even after the flop
5.5 HORSE n 3 8 2.5 overplayed the small pair heads up 3 handed
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 decent play
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 stupid play enough said
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 stupid play chased chip leader
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 bluffed too much, nits call with crap and win
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 wasnt paying attention
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 4handed - 2nd in chips and I got stubborn
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 ugh
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 too much action, 3 tables at once
5.5 HORSE n 1 20 14.5
5.5 HORSE n 2 12 6.5 luck box killed me at the end
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9 played stupid when obviously beat and drawing thin
6.5 HORSE y 8 0 -6.5
5.5 HORSE n 7 0 -5.5
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8 too stubborn at the end
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 played well
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4 got screwed, chip leader and blew it, chased when chip leader but blinds too high doubled up short stacks
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 forced it again then came back
5.5 HORSE n 6 0 -5.5
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 8 0 -6.5 idiots ran me down big time
5.5 HORSE y 8 0 -5.5
6.5 HORSE y 4 0 -6.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
5.5 HORSE n 8 0 -5.5
5.5 HORSE n 1 20 14.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4 continued chasing in razz when didn't improve
5.5 HORSE n 2 12 6.5 got unlucky heads up, str lose to full, str lose to flush, 99 lose to A 10
5.5 HORSE n 5 0 -5.5 no cards
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 luckbox to 3600 with 7 left then played like a donkey
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 drunk - talking to scott and dave too much
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 no cards or good bluff situations
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5 great cards
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 Feese bothering me about fixing skype, lost concentration
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4 donkville
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 blew the lead with 5 left and 5575 in chips
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 no cards and run down by crap
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 2nd best on suckouts
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4 every other hand a starting pair in Razz
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9 too aggressive at end and nothing in either stud games
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8 shitty cards at end
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 chase too many times
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 6 0 -6.5 4 tabling too distracted
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6 4 tabling too distracted
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5 4 tabling too distracted
5.5 HORSE y 1 20 14.5 good job
5.5 HORSE y 5 0 -5.5 unreal beats
3.4 HORSE y 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5 idiot play
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4 unreal, run down 3 times by idiots
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 2 14.4 7.9
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE n 1 12 8.6
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 7 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 2 7.2 3.8
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
6.5 HORSE y 1 24 17.5
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 5 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 4 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 7 0 -6.5
3.4 HORSE y 8 0 -3.4
3.4 HORSE y 6 0 -3.4
6.5 HORSE y 5 0 -6.5
3.4 HORSE y 3 4.8 1.4 early chip lead and then slow drain till high blinds and 5 suck outs in a row with shit hands.
Totals 77.8

bucklox academy graduate

2007-12-12T10:56:00.000-08:00

This guy must have been the valedictorian of his class.

Vegetarian

2007-11-28T08:37:00.000-08:00

Joe's episode #6 and new challenges

2007-11-19T09:03:00.000-08:00

Ok, I finished the first 100 SNG challenge with a profit of $5.85. What can I say, I pushed games to get over with quickly so I could get in to the next SNG.

Started a new 100 NLHE $3.40 SNG challenge. I am 0 for 4 so I also started a 100 HORSE SNG, which I expect ITM between 30-50%.

Here is Joe:

100 SNGs and Joe the Pro

2007-10-30T08:34:00.000-07:00

I finished up the 100 SNG challenge with a +$5.85 playing mostly $3.40 stt. I will post the breakdown shortly. Meanwhile, Joe the Pro has released episode 5 where he is broke.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-sWivOtnrk

Joe the Pro

2007-08-08T06:53:00.000-07:00

I think this guy must have been BuckLox's roommate at the Poker Academy.

Episode 1:

The Life Of A Professional Internet Poker Player - video powered by Metacafe

Episode 2:

Episode 3:

Episode 4:

Bankroll management

2007-08-03T09:25:00.000-07:00

I read a lot about bankroll management, but didn't pay too much attention since I do not rely on my poker income/winnings (losses to be more accurate) to support my living expenses. Basically, I am a recreational player that plays for entertainment and the thrill of competing. I still tried to avoid have 50% of my current bankroll on the tables at cash games or SNGs. Although, I have put 100% on the line on more than one occasion.

I originally looked at true bankroll management strategies as an issue only for pro or semi-pro players that didn't have any real access to other sources of income, like a day job or second job. In other words, bankroll management was only a real concern when you could not readily replace your bankroll if you lost it all. However, the recent changes in the gambling legislation make it difficult to replace lost or depleted bankrolls. Thus, bankroll management has taken a more critical role in which games I choose to play, at least while sober.

That said, I think you can separate it into two categories - bankroll management for those who need poker income to support living expenses and bankroll management for the recreational player who can lose it all with the only consequence being a brief hiatus from the virtual tables until the lost bankroll can be replaced.

My two cents for the pro/semi-pro:

- don't buy into a ring game for more than $10 (limit or $5 no limit - as long as you have at least $100) or 10% (limit or 5% no limit) of your bankroll, which ever is larger. This includes single table SNGs except the use the limit numbers no matter what type of tourney.

- don't buy into a MTT for more than $5.50 (provided you have at least $100) or 5%, which ever is larger.

For recreational players, you should be able to double the amounts.

Keep in mind that I assume you know how to play the game at more than a beginner level. Obviously, you shouldn't be a pro/semi-pro if you are a beginner. For the recreational player, you can still use these guidelines if you want, but expect to go broke before you graduate to intermediate level.

Pai Gow

2007-07-25T12:37:00.000-07:00

Just got back from vacation and my computer broke. Since it will be awhile till anything poker happens, I thought I would post some strategy info.

Badbeat and Q are talking about a trip to AC or Vegas so I thought a casino game strategy post would be in order. Black Jack is obvious and the Hold'em table game is pretty obvious to a poker player. That leaves a game Q just loves but sucks at so here is some basic strategy for newbies and long time losers like Q:

Back = 5 card hand
Front = 2 card hand

NO PAIR: Use the highest card in the back and second and third highest in front

ONE PAIR: Place pair in back, highest other two cards in front.

TWO PAIR:
Big Pair is Jack thru Ace: Place small in front.
Big Pair is 7's thru 10's: Place both pairs in back ifyou can put Ace in front.
Big Pair is 2's thru 6's: Place both pairs in back if you can put King in front; otherwise split

THREE PAIR: Place big pair in front.

THREE OF A KIND:
Aces: Place an Ace and next highest card in front.
Kings and Below: Place three of a kind in back; two highest cards in front.

TWO SETS: Place pair from higher set in front.

STRAIGHT; FLUSH; STRAIGHT FLUSH:
With No Pair: Place two highest cards in front that leaves a complete hand in back.
With One Pair: Place two highest cards possible (pair or no pair) in front that leaves a complete hand in back.
With Two Pair: Use two pair strategy.
With Three of a Kind: Place complete hand in back, pair in front.

FULL HOUSE: Put pair in front.

FOUR OF A KIND:
Jacks thru Aces: Always split.
7's thru 10's: Place four of a kind in back if you can put Ace or King in front; otherwise split
6's or Below: Never split.
With a Pair: Play four of a kind in back; pair in front.
With Three of a Kind: Put highest pair in front; fullhouse in back.

FIVE ACES: Place pair of Aces in front.

MTT strategy post link from Chad C. (aka KOD)

2007-06-28T09:14:00.000-07:00

I thought this was pretty outline for a MTT strategy if you don't have one or are thinking of re-tooling one you already have.

this post

.5/1.00 Pot limit O8 did the trick

2007-06-24T01:48:00.000-07:00

PokerStars Game #10591832721:
Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/06/24 - 04:44:28 (ET)
Table 'Etamin II' 6-max
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: MIMOMA ($15 in chips)
Seat 2: fischerelli ($61.50 in chips)
Seat 3: painterman9 ($108.85 in chips)
Seat 4: cherrybone95 ($30.85 in chips)
Seat 5: microvillain ($46.95 in chips)
microvillain: posts small blind $0.50
MIMOMA: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS
***Dealt to microvillain [As Ah Th Ts]
fischerelli: folds
painterman9: raises $1 to $2
cherrybone95: folds
microvillain: raises $5 to $7
MIMOMA: folds
painterman9: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [Kh 9d 5c]
ZUMA joins the table at seat #6
microvillain: bets $14.25
painterman9: calls $14.25
*** TURN *** [Kh 9d 5c] [Ac]
microvillain: bets $25.70 and is all-in
painterman9: calls $25.70
*** RIVER *** [Kh 9d 5c Ac] [3c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
microvillain: shows [As Ah Th Ts] (HI: three of a kind, Aces)
painterman9: mucks hand t
microvillain collected $92.90 from pot

Finally Pstars gives me one

2007-06-23T22:20:00.000-07:00

I ended up winning this one thanks to this bad beat i put on a decent player.

PokerStars Game #10590057795:
Tournament #53643149,
$6.00+$0.50 Hold'em Limit -
Level VIII (400/800) - 2007/06/24 - 01:07:19 (ET)Table '53643149 1'
9-max Seat #3 is the buttonSeat 1:
The_DC_Kid (2260 in chips)
Seat 3: reelyBIGshow (1570 in chips)
Seat 4: microvillain (2005 in chips)
Seat 7: nevzona (4340 in chips)
Seat 9: RnRollsores (3325 in chips)
microvillain: posts small blind
200nevzona: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to microvillain [4d Kd]
RnRollsores said, "no way"
RnRollsores: folds
The_DC_Kid: folds
reelyBIGshow: folds
microvillain: calls
200nevzona: checks
*** FLOP *** [3c 4s 9c]
RnRollsores said, "u gaughta be shtn me"
microvillain: bets 400
nevzona: raises 400 to 800
microvillain: calls 400
*** TURN *** [3c 4s 9c] [Kh]
microvillain: checks
nevzona: bets 800
microvillain: raises 5 to 805 and is all-in
nevzona: calls 5
*** RIVER *** [3c 4s 9c Kh] [Kc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
microvillain: shows [4d Kd] (a full house, Kings full of Fours)
nevzona: shows [3s 3h] (a full house, Threes full of Kings)
microvillain collected 4010 from pot

Reading, not much playing

2007-06-13T12:45:00.000-07:00

I have been reading during the week and not much playing. Too much to do at home I guess.

I did find another interesting blog from my favorite place (outside of Kerry) - 20K mission. A very uplifting blog that should give all of us micro mission players hope that you can move up with a little work and patience. His advice is great, IMO, on bankroll management especially with what levels to play. I also like his choice of poison - HE and PLO8.

With the upcoming deadline/due date in the US (7/13/07) for the Justice regulations on how to implement the Internet funding ban, I decided to load up a little this week. Your welcome gift2go.net!

If you are using the prepaid VISA route, you might want to do the same. Gift2go is issued by a US bank (Marshall bank out of South Dakota) that will probably be shut down once the regulations issue - at least that is my take on the situation.

Don't chase the draws and for God's sake, don't chase the low in PLO8 even if it is the nut low with counterfeit protection!

New BucKLox video

2007-06-07T07:47:00.001-07:00

Awesome, he is back with more advice:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa-DxhsWjsM

2/4 No Limit Crushed me

2007-06-05T12:49:00.000-07:00

I haven't updated the results yet, but hopefully soon/tonight. The first night wasn't bad, started of with normal PStars bullshit AK lost to A7, AK lost to AJ, QQ lost to KJ, and KK lost to AQ. Believe me when I say I understand statistics, variance, and statistical runs/streaks etc, but everyone I know shouldn't see these freaky types of streaks in such short sample periods. I think most of the problem comes from generally remembering the bad variance and not the good, plus you remember the variance that knocked you out versus the one that just changed your chip stack less drastically. Still, I - and others - have keep pretty accurate statistics on what is happening to us and basically we are all in a shitty streak.

For me (similar to the others) over the last 2+ months I am approx. 18% for hitting my flush after the flop (yea, thats whether I played or folded the only filter is obviously if the turn and river were actually dealt) and approx. 13.5% for hitting my straight when open ended. On the other side of the fence (less accurate statistics because I didn't pay as much attention to my opponents and didn't always get to see what they had if they folded), it seems like the heroes are getting the flush and straights in the low 40s.

Rigged - not likely: Seeded - possible but not likely: Run of negative variance at critical times (and selective memory) - YOU ARE GODDAMN RIGHT!

Anyways, took a 1st and 2nd out of 6 single table SNGs and a couple of bucks off the ring games on PStars.

Next, I tried 4 tabling limit Hold em games on Full tilt. Clear some bonus and made about $10 bucks, but it was too much given my puny single screen set up. Obviously, the 22" LCD is on its way (thanks to badbeat for helping to pick it out) and should be here Thursday.

That was early Friday before the real fun started. Stay tuned for more details ...

UltimateBet and the 5 site challenge

2007-06-02T19:20:00.000-07:00

Ok, the deal is I deposit 150 at 5 sites (Pstars, Absolute, Full Tilt, UltimateBet, and Bodog) to see what I can do with it in 1 year with updates on this site. Simple enough.

Signed up for ultimatebet yesterday and wanted to log at least a couple of hands at limit holdem. I quit after 30 minutes up .47 with some bonus worked off. Then I noticed the Roshambo button. WTF??.

I, like an idiot decided to play. Only one table going at the time. A guy against the BOT (imho). He finishes and I step up. They tried to get me to default a dollar bet but i said no way amigo only .30.

Long story short, the idiot BOT crushed me and I only won 1 out of 12 matches. Please, I am not that bad at picking a random option out of 3 choices such that I lose 11 of 12??????

The latest Brandi Hawbaker installment (Brandirose)

2007-05-31T07:41:00.001-07:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLoxXVJ4lCY

Tourney Stats

2007-05-30T06:40:00.000-07:00

Here are the stats for the tourney this past weekend. As you can see, a little on the high side.

You finished in 5th place.
************************************************************
Hold'em: 67 hands played and saw flop:
- 3 times out of 10 while in small blind (30%)
- 7 times out of 11 while in big blind (63%)
- 9 times out of 46 in other positions (19%)
- a total of 19 times out of 67 (28%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 out of 12 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 4
************************************************************
Omaha Hi/Lo: 36 hands played and saw flop:
- 5 times out of 6 while in small blind (83%)
- 5 times out of 6 while in big blind (83%)
- 10 times out of 24 in other positions (41%)
- a total of 20 times out of 36 (55%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 out of 7 (85%)
Pots won without showdown - 3
************************************************************
7 Card Stud: 47 hands played:
- saw fourth street 22 times (46%)
- saw fifth street 14 times (29%)
- saw sixth street 8 times (17%)
- reached showdown 6 times (12%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 out of 6 (16%)
Pots won without showdown - 14
************************************************************
7 Card Stud Hi/Lo: 45 hands played:
- saw fourth street 26 times (57%)
- saw fifth street 19 times (42%)
- saw sixth street 15 times (33%)
- reached showdown 12 times (26%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 out of 12 (83%)
Pots won without showdown - 7
************************************************************
Razz: 47 hands played:
- saw fourth street 17 times (36%)
- saw fifth street 12 times (25%)
- saw sixth street 9 times (19%)
- reached showdown 6 times (12%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 out of 6 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

The Greatest Bingo Player of All Time and the 3rd all in

2007-05-27T23:23:00.000-07:00

This past Friday was one of my two monthly live games. Two NLHE tournaments with a periodic cash game for those waiting for the 1st or 2nd tournament to end. The one thing that makes this game special is the appearance of the Greatest Bingo Player of All Time, we will call him Bingo or B for short. Anyway, B believes himself to be God's gift to poker as well as bingo.

B was crippled early on when he was the third all in (for the first time that night but not the last). I still don't understand the thinking here. B is on the button, there is an early position caller, mid position raiser (3xBB) followed by a mid/late position reraiser(approx. 8xBB) Now it's B's turn so he calls (?????) First I don't understand the call when its been raised and reraised in front of you. All the money is getting in so why not push and if you can't push then fold. B didn't have anything invested in this pot and still had the original raiser to worry about.

Anyway, its gets folded around to the orginal raiser who, you guessed it, moved all in. The rereaiser calls the all in and now we are back to B, who calls the all in as well?!?!?!?!?

At this point, the rest of us are calling out the various possible combos from the short list of pairs, AKo, AKs (maybe AQs). It seemed obvious to us that B, at least, had to have a pair and a big one at that. Most even thought we would see three pairs.

Everybody was a little dumbfounded with B turned over the QJo. How he thought this was the type of hand to get 80% of your chips in the middle with is beyond me but it wasn't the last time he would do that. At the final table we are down to 7 (paying 4 places). B is the small blind, I am in the cut off. Up to this point, I had only played 3 hands voluntarily and showed each one AKo, AQs, and I pushed all in with AKo 3 hands earlier. Now blinds are 30-60 and I have 440, button has 240 and B has 170 in the 30 SB (BB had around 100 after posting the BB but was bad enough to regularly fold even against one player if he didn't have cards). It gets folded to me and I find 99 so I go all in (I have the other three covered and don't even mind a caller at this point). The button thinks and talks for awhile before callin my all in. B calls and the big blind folds. The button has AK and B has K 10 offsuit. ??????? How on earth B thought that was a good call is beyond me. Of course he claimed to "know" I had a medium pair and he was getting pot odds to call.

Up until that point I had not pushed with anything but AK and AQs. Of course he made his prediction after he sees my cards and the hand is over plus what did he think the button had? garbage? QJ and K 10 offsuit are horrible hands to call especially since this is a tournament. Pot odds don't really matter unless you have over 30 times the big blind and the call doesn't cost you that much in a tournament where a premium is placed on survival. B even knows this because he often would tell me I made a bad call since I could have folded to "fight another day." These types of hands are almost never ahead in these types of situations and, as was the case here, easily dominated by the other hands.

Whatever you do, don't be the third all in unless (1) you are short stacked and will get wiped out by the blinds this round, (2) have enough chips such that you will still have over 20 BBs if you lose or (3) have a hand like high pair of AKos or AQs. Don't call off a lot of your chips to an all in or two all ins with to big cards because you "think" you have two overs or two live cards. It is a poor move that will cost you in the long run.

BadBeat and the two outer

2007-05-27T23:02:00.000-07:00

HORSE seems to be my bread and butter. About 8 months ago I went 8 for 8 cashing in HORSE SNGs. Although I screwed up big time last night/this morning in the HORSE MTT, I still started the final table with the uber chip lead and held it all the way till 5 left and then I doubled the second big stack. Oh well, life goes on.

BadBeat made an appearance tonight to get some of the holiday Sunday easy money, but the monkeys were hitting the two outers like crazy in the SNGs. Took two 2nds in the first two SNGs, then busted out in the third on Stars.

I hate that PStars doesn’t offer rake back. But for the 10 Billionth hand promotion/bonus, I almost would be done with that site. Unfortunately, they have the most players for US friendly rooms and mega variety for the tournaments (MTT and SNGs).

One hand that almost sent BadBeat to the mental hospital is below. The question is why call the all-in as the 3rd all-in in this situation?

PokerStars Game #10141724371: Tournament #51407968, $3.00+$0.40 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/05/28 - 01:22:27 (ET)
Table '51407968 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: tsbjmb (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: pachanga74 (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: austinyea (1585 in chips)
Seat 4: Luck Donkey (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: ~Sandman~ (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: janetirvin (1585 in chips)
Seat 7: badbeat (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: Dog_N_Hat (1340 in chips)
Seat 9: TheOneChuma1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 10: kingkamayo (1500 in chips)
austinyea: posts small blind 10
Luck Donkey: posts big blind 20
~Sandman~: raises 20 to 40
janetirvin: calls 40
badbeat: calls 40
Dog_N_Hat: calls 40
kingkamayo: calls 40
tsbjmb: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Ad 7c 4c]
~Sandman~: bets 80
janetirvin: calls 80
badbeat: calls 80
tsbjmb: calls 80
*** TURN *** [Ad 7c 4c] [7d]
~Sandman~: bets 200
janetirvin: calls 200
badbeat: raises 1180 to 1380 and is all-in
~Sandman~: calls 1180 and is all-in
janetirvin: calls 1180

[ ed. Note: WTF was she thinking with this call????? Does she honestly think that a flush would be good in this spot????????? Even if she manages to hit it for maybe only half the pot!?!?!?!!?!?!??!]

*** RIVER *** [Ad 7c 4c 7d] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
~Sandman~: shows [3s Jc Ac 2c] (HI: two pair, Aces and Sevens; LO: 7,4,3,2,A)
janetirvin: shows [8c 3d Ks Kd] (HI: a full house, Kings full of Sevens; LO: 8,7,4,3,A)
badbeat: shows [2h 7h 4d 3h] (HI: a full house, Sevens full of Fours; LO: 7,4,3,2,A)
janetirvin collected 2365 from pot
~Sandman~ collected 1183 from pot
badbeat1177 collected 1182 from pot

From now on, I am going to keep a confirmed fish list on the bottom of this webpage for geniuses/ATMs like janetirvin with their screen name and site so everyone can find them and break them. Thus, I, Q man and BadBeat don’t have to deal with them anymore. Yea, yea it might be counter productive but I need them to stop playing so I don’t go crazy and kill someone.

I suck

2007-05-27T16:44:00.000-07:00

Sometimes I amaze myself with my stupidity. I even try to fool myself into thinking that I was going for the win so I took a risk but that is still crap.

About 3:45 am I got bored and a little pissed about missing cashes in so many SNGs on stars plus being down money on the site. For some reason, I decided to use a HORSE MTT to recoup my losses (don't ask how that made sense with the large variance in MTTs). I signed up for a $10 +1 horse with 180 people but only paying the top 18. I thought I played well but was also hitting my draws and having most hands hold up against chasers. Anyway, I hit the final table as the uber chipleader. I give a lot back to the field but make it to 5 left still in the chip lead. I have 47K, then it goes 45K, 32K, 30K and 12K. For some reason I get into a pissing contest with the second in chips during a stud round.

I started with K6 6 so my pair isn't even buried. If you don't know stud well, mid and low pairs blow. They look good for a starting hand but really need to improve a lot to win. In the stud the average winning hand is trips 9s (or close to this). In general, I don't like to be the caller and I don't like continuing in a draw game like stud unless each street improves you (or if you are betting at least doesnt improve your opponent(s) when you start with a big pair that has show down value) and you can beat what the other guys are showing on the board.

Back to the meltdown. Small bets are 2.5K and big bets are 5K. After some early raises and reraises, its me against the 2nd in chips. I never improved on my pair but did manage to call all his bets (with a few raises on my part) and double the bastard. This left me with only 2K and change. 4 or 5 hands later, I was done.

As the Q man says, I could have coasted to a top 3 finish where the real money is to be made. Q man said top 2 but I believe I would have had to play some before we got 3 handed to stay with a decent stack. If you get too low, they just wait you out.

On the bright side, I did manage to recoup the loses and then some.

What a night and the Q man

2007-05-26T23:02:00.000-07:00

Wow, had a night like no other. Plus, the Q man gave permission to tear him apart on this blog so that should lead to some interesting stories. However, Q man is still reluctant to hit the track for some bets on the ponies.

What is up with the big up tick you ask. I don't know other than having the midas touch at the right time. Move up to 2/4 O8 for 3 mintues (according to the Q man who was on skype) and won $28. Then up $21 at some random 1/2 table (full tilt). From there to glory i guess. More later on the sng front. Not good by the way so expect a Stars negative soon, unless i pull it out tonight.

God Bless America!!!!!!!!

ugh & new goal/mission in life

2007-05-23T08:50:00.000-07:00

Took it on the chin in some fulltilt SNGs last night, but also realized/promised myself something important:

I refuse to allow money to become the measure of my life's worth

Ring game vs SNG vs MTT

2007-05-22T13:26:00.001-07:00

I don’t like playing MTTs as much as cash games and single table SNGs because of the feedback time.

In cash games, you get the instant feedback of victory or defeat for each pot you contest (showdown more or less). Thus, I like the fact that each pot I play (not just to see the flop but post flop) is like a mini-game so to speak. It’s me against one or more opponents vying for victory. Within a matter of minutes, the winner and loser(s) are decided. In addition, you get the immediate increase in money (or more often, sadly, a decrease in money). Also, I can stop or switch games/tables at any time without any real penalty (other than missing the free cards while waiting for the blinds to cycle around). The only problems I have with cash games come from my lack of patience: to wait for the big blind when I first sit down (pathetic I know), good hands, favorable position, and favorable flops.

I also like the SNGs because it feels like a more substantial win (as opposed to one pot or session where you just wait for the nuts to cream some other player) and doesn’t take as long. However, my lack of patience hurts me because I end up playing whatever fills up the quickest from razz, 5-draw, to NLO8. I also know I only have the patience for about 30-50 minutes before I want a winner to be declared. This is kind of silly because I usually just jump right in another one or have multiple SNGs/tables going at once. I also like the fact that my losses from bad plays/decisions are capped at the buy in and can’t spiral out of control unless I get pissed and keep upping the buy in till I lose a couple $100 SNGs in a row.

Obviously by now you can guess that my problem with MTTs is the amount of time before a “winner” is declared coupled with the fact that you seem to make more per hour if you hit the cash games. What? I mean that I usually lose but when I do win in the short term, my hourly rate is better at cash games or SNGs versus MTTs. I just hate spending 2-3 hours to bust out with no money or just double my buy in. The only really way I can play MTTs anymore is to have them in the background with at least a ring game or a couple SNGs to keep me occupied (watching TV doesn’t work for me).

May 27th PStars Charity Tournament

2007-05-21T07:13:00.000-07:00

One week from today on Sunday May 27th, PokerStars will be hosting a charity tournament to raise money for the humanitarian disaster in the Darfur region of the Sudan. If you cannot play, fnd out how you can donate money or help raise awareness.

PokerStars is running the Ocean's Thirteen Darfur Charity Tournament next Sunday afternoon at 2:30pm ET.PokerStars is teaming up with the cast of Ocean's Thirteen to help stop the suffering in the war-torn region of Darfur in the Sudan. If you have not been paying attention, over 400,000 people have already been killed. They launched Not On Our Watch. Their mission is to..."focus global attention and resources to stop and prevent mass atrocities. Drawing on the powerful voice of citizen artists, activists, and cultural leaders, our mission is to generate lifesaving humanitarian assistance and protection for the vulnerable, marginalized, and displaced."PokerStars is donating $1 million and you can help out by playing in two diffeent charity events. You have a shot to win a ticket to the Ocean's Thirteen premiere in Los Angeles. See below for specific details.

Overview of the Ocean's Thirteen Darfur Charity Tournament:These tournaments are special re-buy tournaments - the entire prize pool will be matched by PokerStars and donated to the Darfur relief efforts. At the conclusion of the event the prize pool, which will be temporarily awarded to the 1st place finisher, will be removed from the 1st place finisher's account. The amount will then be matched by PokerStars and sent forward to the Darfur charity. Thank you for participating — go re-buy crazy! — it's for a good cause. Good luck!

Date: May 27th 2007, 15:30 ETBuy-in: $10 plus rebuys.Prizes: Top 4 receive tickets to June 5th premiere in Los Angeles plus 2 nights hotel and $2k for travel/spending. Top 18 receive autographed copy of "Oceans 13" DVD. Total prize pool will go to charity. PokerStars will match the donation. The tournament is open to all players.

Table selection

2007-05-18T09:46:00.000-07:00

Didn't play last night, just watched another session of Aussie Millions and poker after dark. However, I am pretty excited about logging another leg of the micro-limit adventures tonight. Friday nights and Saturday nights are the easiest in my opinion because all the loose recreational players like myself hit the tables. By 11 pm or later, most of us are smashed tired and playing piss poor poker!

One thing I have been considering is buying the pokertracker software. I already have poker-spy thanks to a deposit bonus extra from Absolute. But I don't find it all that useful anymore. Back to pokertracker - Every other posts seems to refer to this software as the greatest or some of the software's data/functionality to support their point. I don't really like the idea of laying out over $100 (getting it for both the hold em and omaha=$100 and $25 (I think) for the pokerace HUD add on) considering that is my typical bankroll deposit for a site. The reason I keep coming back to it is that table selection is a key to having a more enjoyable and profitable poker session.

It is no fun to play a table of tight nits that fold 90% of the hands and they only action you get is from the rock with a monster hand. I like to play a lot of hands but not when I keep getting creamed by the nuts or I only win the blinds - nobody likes to lose. Thus, you want loose tables that you get lots of action (more exciting) and can win at more often (also more exciting).

Here is a good post/blog entry for the law school drop out (no longer an active blog, but much more useful and exciting archived posts) that should help define a "good" table.

So first step is building up a robust PT database full of statistics on your opponents. Even when I'm busy with schoolwork and other responsibilities that don't let me play poker, I make sure that my computer is actively datamining hands from many different sites so that when I finally do get around to playing, my database is as complete as I can make it. So what to do once you've got your PT database chalk full of statistics? Maybe I can best illustrate by giving an example of my typical table selection process. I login to the poker software, and open up as many tables as I can -- let's say I'm feeling like playing some full-ring limit games: I'll open up as many 20/40 and 30/60 tables as I can find. I've got PAHUD configured to show me the table's average VPIP and PFR statistics...(as many exotic stats as PT can tell you about your opponents, I really think that VPIP and PFR account for 98% of what the typical player needs to know to get a good read on the players at his table.) If the table's average VPIP is under 26, I'll close the table without a second thought. If it's over 30, I'll nearly always take a seat or get on the waiting list; that's a pretty damn good table. If it's between 26 and 29, I'll take a closer look at the individual players at the table. Think about the following things: just how many fish are seated? Is the higher-than-normal table VPIP a result of a bunch of rocks and one gigantic fish with a 90VPIP, or rather is it 5 or 6 slightly-loose players with VPIPs of 28 to 35? More importantly, where are the open seats at the table? I typically require at least 3 fish at any table in order to consider it play-worthy, but I'll accept just two (or even one) if I can sit to the immediate left of a super-LAG. How big are the chip stacks of the fish? If they're down pretty low, that may be an indication that they won't be around anymore by the time your name comes up off the waiting list. Are the fish at the table passive or extremely aggressive? A 45/7 fish is a completely different animal than a 50/33. If the 50/33 is one of only 1 or 2 fish at the table, I'll typically only sit if I can get a seat to his left, whereas it's easier to exploit a the weaknesses of a 45/7 regardless of position. Those VPIP numbers will obviously differ at a short-handed table...at a 5 or 6-handed table, I typically look for average table VPIPs of above 38, although as before I'll accept a 35-37 if I can get good position on a LAG.

Micro-limits?

2007-05-17T08:14:00.000-07:00

Alright, the first and most popular question I seem to be getting is a two parter followed by a "who cares about that?"

The question is why are you wasting your time writing about micro limits and what exactly are micro-limits. First, I don't consider this a waste of time. It helps me feel like I am giving something back after getting so much free advice and enjoyment from reading other sites/blogs (Tao of poker and Life of Riley especially). Writing about it helps me clarify my own thoughts about how I play, why I play, and should I do something else instead. Writing about it also helps me record exactly how much this distraction is costing me and why (I don't win, but I believe the reason being (1) I play too many hands, (2) I drink when I play, (3) I am not as good as I think, and (4) the competition is different/better than the home games I win at).

I define micro-limits as less than $3/$6 limit ring games, $100 buy in NL games, $20+ SNGs, $10+ MTTs. Now, I have and will continue to take occasional shots at higher limits when feeling good or coming off a big win, but I don't stay at those higher limits for more than one 4-hour session. How high depends on the current bankroll and how much I have had to drink. I have played the $100+9 SNGs and $3/$6 NLHE tables, but not often.

I tend to stay at the lower limits because I love to play, know I play bad and lose, and don't want this 'hobby' to cost so much money I stop playing. Trust me when I tell you that I take the $1.10 SNG just as serious as I do the $20 SNG. Why? I am not jaded yet like some and, for me, its not about the money, its about winning or as is the case more often than not - losing.

No action to report because I spent the night watching Russo blab her head off on Poker after Dark (couple of tivo'ed shows) and those crazy crabbers on Deadliest Catch.

Villain runs down hero on the river

2007-05-16T09:48:00.000-07:00

Ok, day one is in the books so to speak. I did not actually play very much because of all the admin crap and non-poker issues. What did I do?

First, I went to rakebrain.com to set up some new accounts where I get some rake back from the blood sucking leaches (the ones that put up a site to let me play whenever I want, but won't do it for free). It was relatively easy, but I had to set up new accounts.

I didn't think the sites allowed this, but I guess they do because I didn't encounter a problem with the first two sites I set up last night. If you have ever considered getting in to the rake back game, do wait any longer. It is amazing how much rake is taken during your play each month and how much you leave on the table if you aren't getting a percentage back even at the microlimits (in the hundreds of dollars per month with 50-80 hours of play per month).

I set up two accounts, one at wingows and the other at full tilt. I did wingows because they give you $5 free without even requiring a deposit! The only problem is that there is no deposit option for Visa (using prepaid visa cards to deposit until something better/cheaper comes along) and they don't have many players. For example here is a snap shot at around 8pm EDT on a Tuesday, Wingows - approx. 2K plyrs, Full Tilt - approx. 41K plyrs, Pokerstars - approx. 89K plyrs. But, $5 is $5 which is a lot to a microvillain like me.

I also set an account up on Full Tilt because - 100% deposit bonus, decent volume of plyrs, visa deposit option, rake back offered, and I love their commercials. After wasting what little time I had setting up a rake back account, opening two accounts on wingows and full tilt, making a deposit on full tilt, I finally sat down at Full Tilt to play.

I end up at a 0.25/0.50 limit hold em table 9 handed. I choose this table because the pre-flop percentage was 70%. Since it was during the week, I only faced one of my two personal demons (desire to play [not fold] and beer) - I played too many hands early, but settled down after 15 minutes or so.

The details, bought in and played 70% of the hands and almost lost first buy in. I have this problem alot. I work all day and want to take a break and have some fun so I log on to "play." I can't stand/don't have the discipline to folded till I get a good hand or even good position, so I see a lot of flops. I know - this is the reason I lose so often and overall especially on the weekends after many beers. Given the limits I now play (use to play $3/$6 NL and $109 SNGs) in addition to my goal of recreation as opposed to profit/income, I am not too disappointed with myself or too interested in playing better.

Reloaded before completely out, won a decent 3 way pot when neither believed I flopped the ace. Then, this gem comes along: The table of heroes folds around to the villain (yours truly) who has pocket 7s on the button. I still can't believe this given 5 or 6 were seeing the flop on almost every hand while I was at the table.

Interesting side issue - when you have such a high percentage that play each hand what does it mean when a hand comes along and only the button plus blinds or just blinds play? That nobody had even marginally playable hands? If that is true, what about the blinds? Shouldn't you give them credit for having better than random hands you otherwise assume because none of the "good" cards have appeared (evidenced by the normally loose callers who have all folded what must be a lot of sub-par hands)? Back to the fun...

I raise, SB and BB call. Flop comes K A K, SB and BB check, I bet, SB check raises me and BB folds. Since I am sober I just call trying to convince myself that the SB just sensed a button preflop raise for a steal and a continuation bet he can push me off of. As you will find out later, I play too NL were people can bluff, steal and re-steal successfully. I also convinced myself that it was unlikely he had a K (two of the four hit the flop - but more on this topic later if I remember) or an ace because he didn't reraise my preflop steal raise.

The turn brings a 6 which is safe for my sevens if he hit it by chance. He bets and I call because my hindbrain is hinting that he has at least an ace although I still don't believe him. The turns brings a beautiful 7. The hero in the SB bets his apparent winner and I raise, which he calls. I show the full house and he shows the A 8. Looks like the Villain struck another blow to the heros of micro-limits.

Walked away shortly after that with a profit of 3+ BB for 40 minutes (= approx. 6BB/hr) and $5 in free wingows money plus $0.18 of full tilt bonus money.

WPT is on tonight so I don't know if I will get a chance to villanize the micro-limit tables.

The Beginning

2007-05-15T08:28:00.000-07:00

Not the actual beginnings of my microlimit poker adventures, but the beginnings of recorded history for my microlimit adventures.

Why am I recording my misadventures in microlimits (on and off the felt)? I decided to give something back after having lived off the tales of other bloggers with similar interests/lives. I also wanted some record of how much the microlimit distraction is costing me.

That's right, I lose money at the microlimits and I don't think it is just because of the rake. This leads me to my first dilemma/topic – how to get money on a poker site in the UIEGA era. The best way to get it on (not worried about taking it out because it doesn’t happen at the micro-limits) that I have found is using the prepaid VISA from “gift2go” The two ways to get one are (1) order from their website (www.gift2go.net) or (2) go to a Walgreens and get one at the store. Option 2 is the fastest but most expensive in terms of gift2go fees. The $100 card at the store is activated immediately but cost $5.95 in fees (this is how gift2go/IDT financial/Marshall Bank/Walgreens makes its money). If you go option 1, you can get a $250 card for $5.95 in fees, but you have to wait for it to arrive in the mail (1-2 weeks). If you look at the website, you can see the pricing (although $100 card is only $4.95 in fees through the site but $5.95 in fees at Walgreens). I know it doesn’t sound like much, but these are the MICRO-LIMIT adventures and every dollar counts!

I will go for the quick fix and hit the local Walgreens tonight for $100 to start to the recorded adventure bankroll.

Stay tuned if you are bored or an aspiring micro-limit pro …